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> I think uber's in a death spin, not sure it can pull out. that is not evidenced at all in their financials though. Their losses are down and their revenue is

• josephmerz 9y ago
  Really can't see them profitable in 18 months. At least Musk's focus is on product for all parties. Uber only cares about scaling
  • malandrew 9y ago
    And Tesla can't scale. There are just over a billion vehicles in the world today. Tesla can produce like 20k per month. Assuming 3/4s of those vehicles are consumer vehicles and we need 1/3 as many vehicles to service the transportation needs of humanity, that's 250M autonomous vehicles. It would take 1000 years for Tesla to replace the current fleet. Toyota and Volkswagen, the largest automakers can produce 10M units per year. Assuming either had a monopoly on self-driving cars, it would take either of them 25 years. Manufacturers like Volkswagen and Toyota are going to have autonomous vehicles faster than Tesla builds out the capacity to manufacture 10 million cars per year. Tesla would need to buy or partner with one of the big automakers to accelerate their growth, and even then they will be constrained by the cost of cooperation and scaling battery manufacturing. Software and hardware tech licensing is going to be the name of the game and if you have both those and represent the demand (riders), you're easily in the lead. Don't get me wrong, Tesla is going to do very well for itself. It just doesn't stand a chance competing head to head against Uber all things considered.
  • nopatternhere 9y ago
    If Yearly Revenue = Yearly Revenue X 2, and Yearly Costs = Yearly Costs X 1.5, Uber is profitable within 2 years.