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I think there will be a big pivot from car ownership to rentals... maybe add up insurance, maintenance, and leasing fees to get to $600-1000 a month for unlimit

I think there will be a big pivot from car ownership to rentals... maybe add up insurance, maintenance, and leasing fees to get to $600-1000 a month for unlimited car-service. Automated cars will be summoned by phone, arrive when you schedule them, and go pick up others when not needed.. Pretty sure a lot of the car companies are planning something like this, I know tesla is. Uber wants to hold out till their self-driving cars pay off, but I think it'll be a much more crowded space by then, and they might be dead in the water before hitting pay-dirt. I think uber's in a death spin, not sure it can pull out.

tmh79 9y ago
> I think uber's in a death spin, not sure it can pull out. that is not evidenced at all in their financials though. Their losses are down and their revenue is up. They are doing exactly what is expected of them if they hope to be profitable in the next 18 months or so.
- josephmerz 9y ago
  Really can't see them profitable in 18 months. At least Musk's focus is on product for all parties. Uber only cares about scaling
  - malandrew 9y ago
    And Tesla can't scale. There are just over a billion vehicles in the world today. Tesla can produce like 20k per month. Assuming 3/4s of those vehicles are consumer vehicles and we need 1/3 as many vehicles to service the transportation needs of humanity, that's 250M autonomous vehicles. It would take 1000 years for Tesla to replace the current fleet. Toyota and Volkswagen, the largest automakers can produce 10M units per year. Assuming either had a monopoly on self-driving cars, it would take either of them 25 years. Manufacturers like Volkswagen and Toyota are going to have autonomous vehicles faster than Tesla builds out the capacity to manufacture 10 million cars per year. Tesla would need to buy or partner with one of the big automakers to accelerate their growth, and even then they will be constrained by the cost of cooperation and scaling battery manufacturing. Software and hardware tech licensing is going to be the name of the game and if you have both those and represent the demand (riders), you're easily in the lead. Don't get me wrong, Tesla is going to do very well for itself. It just doesn't stand a chance competing head to head against Uber all things considered.
  - nopatternhere 9y ago
    If Yearly Revenue = Yearly Revenue X 2, and Yearly Costs = Yearly Costs X 1.5, Uber is profitable within 2 years.
collyw 9y ago
Maintenance is likely to be a lot higher. You are in a car without a driver. What is to stop you spilling crap all over the seats and not cleaning up? A good deal of Taxi use comes through people drinking and not being allowed to drive.There are other benefits to having someone physically drive the car. (I think this applies even more to Amazon's automated deliveries via robot / drone - whats to stop the stuff getting stolen?)

tmh79 9y ago

> I think uber's in a death spin, not sure it can pull out. that is not evidenced at all in their financials though. Their losses are down and their revenue is up. They are doing exactly what is expected of them if they hope to be profitable in the next 18 months or so.

josephmerz 9y ago
Really can't see them profitable in 18 months. At least Musk's focus is on product for all parties. Uber only cares about scaling
- malandrew 9y ago
  And Tesla can't scale. There are just over a billion vehicles in the world today. Tesla can produce like 20k per month. Assuming 3/4s of those vehicles are consumer vehicles and we need 1/3 as many vehicles to service the transportation needs of humanity, that's 250M autonomous vehicles. It would take 1000 years for Tesla to replace the current fleet. Toyota and Volkswagen, the largest automakers can produce 10M units per year. Assuming either had a monopoly on self-driving cars, it would take either of them 25 years. Manufacturers like Volkswagen and Toyota are going to have autonomous vehicles faster than Tesla builds out the capacity to manufacture 10 million cars per year. Tesla would need to buy or partner with one of the big automakers to accelerate their growth, and even then they will be constrained by the cost of cooperation and scaling battery manufacturing. Software and hardware tech licensing is going to be the name of the game and if you have both those and represent the demand (riders), you're easily in the lead. Don't get me wrong, Tesla is going to do very well for itself. It just doesn't stand a chance competing head to head against Uber all things considered.
- nopatternhere 9y ago
  If Yearly Revenue = Yearly Revenue X 2, and Yearly Costs = Yearly Costs X 1.5, Uber is profitable within 2 years.

collyw 9y ago

Maintenance is likely to be a lot higher. You are in a car without a driver. What is to stop you spilling crap all over the seats and not cleaning up? A good deal of Taxi use comes through people drinking and not being allowed to drive.There are other benefits to having someone physically drive the car. (I think this applies even more to Amazon's automated deliveries via robot / drone - whats to stop the stuff getting stolen?)