The business cycle may look perfectly cyclic to the point where it appears predictable, but a closer look at the data shows that it is not. Exhibit 7 is not a g

The business cycle may look perfectly cyclic to the point where it appears predictable, but a closer look at the data shows that it is not. Exhibit 7 is not a great way to show the data because the compressed x axis gives the optical illusion that the cycles occur within the same amount of time and that each cycle's shape is roughly the same. For example, the two right after 1980 look similar, but their shape does not match any other cycle (particularly the 2008 recession). Likewise the three around 1960 to before 1980 all look different. The expansion after 1960 is unusually long and even though it dips at one point before 1970 does not go negative until after. With that classification we already have 4 categories of recessions (3 between 1960 and 1980, and one for two recessions after 1980). The reason is prior to the 1980s recessions were generally driven by political events or changes in government policy exogenous to the private sector. According to this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit... the 1961 is because of FR interest rate move, 1969- government tightens budget and interest rates go up 1973- Stagflation starting with OPEC tightening oil supply You'll notice all of those are caused by events outside the control of the private sector or in other words the cause of someone's deliberate policy rather than an event of the system. Economic policy cannot predict these nor should it try to predict human behavior. Which brings up the point again that they are not predictable because I don't think anyone would say they can predict the behavior of an individual or a conglomerate like OPEC with great certainty. That said post 1980 many of the recessions are caused by financial crisis that are endogenous to the private sector, so that is worth looking at. But the claim that the business cycle from 1945 to 2009 is predictable does not hold up.