4 ms·
I called it a couple weeks ago: https://twitter.com/zachaysan/status/895197582586261504 https://twitter.com/zachaysan/status/895197582586261504 Forward P/E, y
by 3pt14159 9y ago
I called it a couple weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/zachaysan/status/895197582586261504 https://twitter.com/zachaysan/status/895197582586261504
Forward P/E, yields, EPS, everything is just too frothy right now in the US. In my home country (Canada) it's difficult to see how the short term oil market will turn out, since it's such an inelastic market, but in the medium term oil is effectively over - especially for resource intensive extractions like the Alberta oil/tar sands.
The only major company that I'm still in on is Facebook, but that's only until regulators start coming down harder on them. Even so, Facebook has a huge amount of growth ahead of them.
I've been able to make around 18% YoY, even after the fact that half my portfolio is in bonds and low-risk consumer staples. I don't do anything too fancy. I sell before busts (like in late 2006) I put a little money into put options on the S&P500 (SPY) well out of the money for an extra boost if I've timed it right, I move things into actual cash and then I wait until people are panicking and then I buy back in.
Split exposure to 1/3 USD, 1/3 CAD, 1/3 Other (basically Bitcoin, startups, bit of precious metals, Asian / Euro stocks) when things are undervalued and move most things into cash when things are scary.
When choosing investments I generally do:
1. Tech I understand (in the past Amazon, Tesla, Apple, Google, Shopify)
2. High dividends stocks (Apple, then a bunch of boring ones with no appreciable downside, since I don't like buying declining industries).
3. Short term commodity plays (since in the long run clever humans invent better mining techniques).
4. Strategies that anticipate the catchup effect. Last decade it was China this decade it will be India and Africa.
I'm not perfect (SQM and Etsy were two stocks I was quite confident in that didn't pay out for a number of reasons) but I'm confident and careful. I really think I would have been wealthier if I'd gone into finance instead of machine learning, since I seem to have a knack for it, but we'll see how the chips finally land in the future I guess.