4 ms·

What about exchange traded funds? The general trend is still upwards and the Bubbles don't change that. Of course if you get in just before a bubble bursts, y

by sddfd 9y ago

What about exchange traded funds? The general trend is still upwards and the Bubbles don't change that. Of course if you get in just before a bubble bursts, you lose at first and may have to wait a long time to break even. But judging from history (data since 1900) you will break even eventually.

IanCal 9y ago
There's a good story of the worst market timer, who invests only at peaks: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-...
blubb-fish 9y ago
That's my strategy. I invest in 1000+ Euro batches in ETFs. By now I covered half of the world or more. Nonetheless it is a bit frustrating to see ETFs bouncing up and down - everytime Mr Trump says something stupid you can expect the MSCI World to drop and with it everything else, too. Even a globally diversified ETF seems to be indirectly highly US centric. The DJ drops - then also ETFs focusing on Asian EMs drop. It's a bit ridiculous. And sometimes I am sceptical if the average market growth of up to 10% per year can be expected for the future.
- apexalpha 9y ago
  >Nonetheless it is a bit frustrating to see ETFs bouncing up and down - everytime Mr Trump says something stupid you can expect the MSCI World to drop and with it everything else, too. That is all part of it though. You shouldn't look at 1, 2 or 5 year yields. Look at 50 year yields. It will go up on average over all those years. Including crises like 2008. You only die on a rollercoaster if you get off in the middle.
  - blubb-fish 9y ago
    come one - 50 years? :D I'm beyond 30 - in 50 years I'm likely calling a little wooden box my home. So, let's say 20 to 30 years. That's the horizon I calculate with. You are totally right with performance to be looked at for long periods of time. But I sometimes reflect on my ETF prices in relation to the news and I feel like there is a deeper and deepening fundamental issue with economy that might severely handicap my funds even on a long time scale.
    - apexalpha 9y ago
      Fair enough, but the point is that 5 tot 10 years is realtively short term. Imagine looking at the stock market from 2006 to 2011. Ouch! But then 2011 until 2016 looks amazing! Wow! There will always be up and downs. The trick is not to try and time them, just ride it out. And don't forget to put a bigger percentage of your portfolio in bonds / safe things the older you get. You don't want to retire one year after the next '2008' and have everything in stocks.

by sddfd 9y ago

IanCal 9y ago

There's a good story of the worst market timer, who invests only at peaks: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-...

blubb-fish 9y ago

That's my strategy. I invest in 1000+ Euro batches in ETFs. By now I covered half of the world or more. Nonetheless it is a bit frustrating to see ETFs bouncing up and down - everytime Mr Trump says something stupid you can expect the MSCI World to drop and with it everything else, too. Even a globally diversified ETF seems to be indirectly highly US centric. The DJ drops - then also ETFs focusing on Asian EMs drop. It's a bit ridiculous. And sometimes I am sceptical if the average market growth of up to 10% per year can be expected for the future.

apexalpha 9y ago
>Nonetheless it is a bit frustrating to see ETFs bouncing up and down - everytime Mr Trump says something stupid you can expect the MSCI World to drop and with it everything else, too. That is all part of it though. You shouldn't look at 1, 2 or 5 year yields. Look at 50 year yields. It will go up on average over all those years. Including crises like 2008. You only die on a rollercoaster if you get off in the middle.
- blubb-fish 9y ago
  come one - 50 years? :D I'm beyond 30 - in 50 years I'm likely calling a little wooden box my home. So, let's say 20 to 30 years. That's the horizon I calculate with. You are totally right with performance to be looked at for long periods of time. But I sometimes reflect on my ETF prices in relation to the news and I feel like there is a deeper and deepening fundamental issue with economy that might severely handicap my funds even on a long time scale.
  - apexalpha 9y ago
    Fair enough, but the point is that 5 tot 10 years is realtively short term. Imagine looking at the stock market from 2006 to 2011. Ouch! But then 2011 until 2016 looks amazing! Wow! There will always be up and downs. The trick is not to try and time them, just ride it out. And don't forget to put a bigger percentage of your portfolio in bonds / safe things the older you get. You don't want to retire one year after the next '2008' and have everything in stocks.