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Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory wo

Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory workers with proprietary standards (looking at you, FeliCa) China may surpass Japan in the automation/AI sphere. Lots of young, English-speaking, western-educated workers, plus the PRC has already innovated so much in manufacturing, shipbuilding, etc., and an ecosystem willing to splash cash on daring startups (albeit a lot of that is state funding, and you need CCP connections to come up in the Chinese startup world) in ways that leave Japan in the dust. Look at how Nvidia is working in China, look at the rise of Aliyun, Baidu Cloud and Tencent Cloud. The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks. As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980, is nothing short of a Herculean endeavor. I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040.

smallnamespace 9y ago
Why is total GDP the correct metric, if per capita GDP is on the rise?
- neptunespear 9y ago
  The provincial government in my home province of British Columbia, Canada, is developing a genuine progress indicator (GPI) to replace the GDP metric, which was the idea of the BC Green Party. The point made here is that GDP is a very imperfect solution. Christy Clark may have boasted about BC's booming economy by pointing to GDP numbers, but do they explain the whole story? I know that's neither here nor there, however.
- ShabbosGoy 9y ago
  Per capita GDP will rise if population remains unchanged or declines.
mc32 9y ago
>As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population... I think they have done an admirable job to be the no. 3 economy in the world despite neo-liberal economics --as they say, even Fukuyama is no longer a Fukuyama-ist and I think they are working hard at making a soft landing for their post neo-liberal economy, whatever shape that takes. We all know consumerism only gets us so far and what lies beyond is still amorphous. They're trying to give it some shape.
- neptunespear 9y ago
  That was a big typo since I meant to finish that sentence. I've fixed it now.
  - mc32 9y ago
    Ok, that makes sense now. I agree it's quite an accomplishment. If anyone can manage that transition, I think it's Japan --despite not being quite the centrally planned econ.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
icanhackit 9y ago
> Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory workers with proprietary standard s(looking at you, FeliCa) Like before, won't software and open collaboration merely be an aspect of automation? Who's open-sourced their driverless car tech - anyone with wheels on the ground and a car you can buy? Some advanced mechatronics will be required to fill a lot of voids in the manual labour space. Whose battery tech and engineering prowess will we be using in these vehicles and machines? Japan's? > As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980s. That should be praise, no? I mean, aspects of sexism and odd views about social hierarchy can go in the trash, but their productivity is still very good. > I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040. With freed up housing and resources? Probably get better pay, make more children and ultimately kick off a new cycle of growth. A bit hard when you're in your 40's and still living with your parents...who are still working at retirement age.
- neptunespear 9y ago
  > Who's open-sourced their driverless car tech - anyone with wheels on the ground and a car you can buy? Some advanced mechatronics will be required to fill a lot of voids in the manual labour space. Whose battery tech and engineering prowess will we be using in these vehicles and machines? Ah, but that's on the hardware side. Japan is excellent at hardware, its education system spits out lots of factory workers. But I have a hunch that AI and automation, in the future, will emphasizing hardware a bit less (since China/Taiwan/Korea has gotten so good at efficient manufacturing), and refocus towards software--that may be where the growth will be. Since you mentioned Tesla Motors, I will note that they hire a lot of software engineers, and it's not a 100% proprietary locked-down atmosphere on the software side; open source collaboration is encouraged. Tesla even open sourced some of their patents, though I will admit I think Elon Musk's attitude towards open source software can be a bit duplicitous. > That should be praise, no? I mean, aspects of sexism and odd views about social hierarchy can go in the trash, but their productivity is still very good. Haha...accidentally several words there. I've fixed it.
comstock 9y ago
"The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks." I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad. I really can't see, at least the company I worked with, as "the future of automation"... a lot of it just seems to be neat but impractical toys.
- neptunespear 9y ago
  > I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad. You can't just drop an anecdote like that without naming and shaming.
  - comstock 9y ago
    Honestly, I'd rather hear evidence supporting the argument that any of these companies could be called "the future of automation". Anything I say, will by its nature be anecdotal. But do you have anything to support the assertion that they're actually doing amazing things?
    - neptunespear 9y ago
      I never said that Preferred/Mujin/LeapMind would be the future of automation. I just said that in my uneducated opinion, having followed these companies for some time now, I feel like they may be better equipped to handle "new economy" automation--shift from hardware to software, shift from closed-off proprietary standards to open collaboration. Aka the anathema of Sony, Sharp, Fujitsu, KDDI, etc.
      - comstock 9y ago
        Can you show any evidence that they are better equipped? Other than just their vague mission statements or general attitude? I also prefer open standards, I think they're generally "a good thing". However big companies (like Sony) always seem to prefer closed standards... I guess it promotes lock-in. It would be nice to have something backing up these statements though. Personally, while I don't much like there working style. I still see companies like Sony providing a lot of fundamental value in, for example, imaging sensors.
Markoff 9y ago
it's funny you mention open collaboration and praise China in same comment, while China is slowly shutting itself from rest of the world and literally none startups from China have been successful abroad where they don't have benefit of government protectionism

smallnamespace 9y ago

Why is total GDP the correct metric, if per capita GDP is on the rise?

neptunespear 9y ago
The provincial government in my home province of British Columbia, Canada, is developing a genuine progress indicator (GPI) to replace the GDP metric, which was the idea of the BC Green Party. The point made here is that GDP is a very imperfect solution. Christy Clark may have boasted about BC's booming economy by pointing to GDP numbers, but do they explain the whole story? I know that's neither here nor there, however.
ShabbosGoy 9y ago
Per capita GDP will rise if population remains unchanged or declines.

mc32 9y ago

>As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population... I think they have done an admirable job to be the no. 3 economy in the world despite neo-liberal economics --as they say, even Fukuyama is no longer a Fukuyama-ist and I think they are working hard at making a soft landing for their post neo-liberal economy, whatever shape that takes. We all know consumerism only gets us so far and what lies beyond is still amorphous. They're trying to give it some shape.

neptunespear 9y ago
That was a big typo since I meant to finish that sentence. I've fixed it now.
- mc32 9y ago
  Ok, that makes sense now. I agree it's quite an accomplishment. If anyone can manage that transition, I think it's Japan --despite not being quite the centrally planned econ.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

icanhackit 9y ago

> Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory workers with proprietary standard s(looking at you, FeliCa) Like before, won't software and open collaboration merely be an aspect of automation? Who's open-sourced their driverless car tech - anyone with wheels on the ground and a car you can buy? Some advanced mechatronics will be required to fill a lot of voids in the manual labour space. Whose battery tech and engineering prowess will we be using in these vehicles and machines? Japan's? > As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980s. That should be praise, no? I mean, aspects of sexism and odd views about social hierarchy can go in the trash, but their productivity is still very good. > I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040. With freed up housing and resources? Probably get better pay, make more children and ultimately kick off a new cycle of growth. A bit hard when you're in your 40's and still living with your parents...who are still working at retirement age.

neptunespear 9y ago
> Who's open-sourced their driverless car tech - anyone with wheels on the ground and a car you can buy? Some advanced mechatronics will be required to fill a lot of voids in the manual labour space. Whose battery tech and engineering prowess will we be using in these vehicles and machines? Ah, but that's on the hardware side. Japan is excellent at hardware, its education system spits out lots of factory workers. But I have a hunch that AI and automation, in the future, will emphasizing hardware a bit less (since China/Taiwan/Korea has gotten so good at efficient manufacturing), and refocus towards software--that may be where the growth will be. Since you mentioned Tesla Motors, I will note that they hire a lot of software engineers, and it's not a 100% proprietary locked-down atmosphere on the software side; open source collaboration is encouraged. Tesla even open sourced some of their patents, though I will admit I think Elon Musk's attitude towards open source software can be a bit duplicitous. > That should be praise, no? I mean, aspects of sexism and odd views about social hierarchy can go in the trash, but their productivity is still very good. Haha...accidentally several words there. I've fixed it.

comstock 9y ago

"The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks." I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad. I really can't see, at least the company I worked with, as "the future of automation"... a lot of it just seems to be neat but impractical toys.

neptunespear 9y ago
> I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad. You can't just drop an anecdote like that without naming and shaming.
- comstock 9y ago
  Honestly, I'd rather hear evidence supporting the argument that any of these companies could be called "the future of automation". Anything I say, will by its nature be anecdotal. But do you have anything to support the assertion that they're actually doing amazing things?
  - neptunespear 9y ago
    I never said that Preferred/Mujin/LeapMind would be the future of automation. I just said that in my uneducated opinion, having followed these companies for some time now, I feel like they may be better equipped to handle "new economy" automation--shift from hardware to software, shift from closed-off proprietary standards to open collaboration. Aka the anathema of Sony, Sharp, Fujitsu, KDDI, etc.
    - comstock 9y ago
      Can you show any evidence that they are better equipped? Other than just their vague mission statements or general attitude? I also prefer open standards, I think they're generally "a good thing". However big companies (like Sony) always seem to prefer closed standards... I guess it promotes lock-in. It would be nice to have something backing up these statements though. Personally, while I don't much like there working style. I still see companies like Sony providing a lot of fundamental value in, for example, imaging sensors.

Markoff 9y ago

it's funny you mention open collaboration and praise China in same comment, while China is slowly shutting itself from rest of the world and literally none startups from China have been successful abroad where they don't have benefit of government protectionism