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I think you overstate how much better mass transit is than self driving cars. Transportation is fundamentally about traversing a graph, and transportation infra
by scarmig 9y ago
I think you overstate how much better mass transit is than self driving cars. Transportation is fundamentally about traversing a graph, and transportation infrastructure is about maximizing the value of the flows on that graph. Mass transit only makes sense when the edges become a certain weight. The vast majority of point to point connections are far too light to support mass transit. Car transit is a bit better for these P2P and near P2P connections, but still pretty mediocre, because of coordination costs.
To a significant extent the issues with mass transit can be remedied by breaking the global graph up into connected subgraphs, and each subgraph can be similarly subdivided, recursively down to the point where the form factors and utilization rates cause the economics to break down. The edges between those subgraphs is mass transit.
Autonomous technologies make both point to point and mass transit transportation much cheaper. But labor (market or not) comprises a much more of car transportation costs than mass transit costs. Eliminating that cost inherently drives a shift from mass transit to car transit. Combine that with an efficient coordination algorithm to increase car utilization rates, and it gets a significant upper hand.
Each approach will still have its place, of course.
- jamestimmins 9y agoThat's an interesting approach to breaking the problem down, and a way in which I hadn't thought of it. I can see that I likely overstated my initial comment. I'll edit it to clarify what I meant.
- robinsloan 9y agoJust a nitpick here, but when you write > breaking the global graph up into connected subgraphs I feel like it's too conservative -- and takes "the transportation graph" as too fixed an entity. Consider how much the shape of the U.S. changed between 1917 and 2017 -- suburbs, the Interstate Highways, malls, fast food, huge parking lots, and on and on. The car literally gave us new ways of living with each other, for better and for worse. So I think we should expect changes at least that radical in the next hundred years -- which suggests that we'll not just divide some abstract, eternal graph differently, but really truly reshape it. I can't wait for super-fast trains + self-driving cars, AND I can't wait to see what kind of world they create.