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Interesting that this has nothing to do with ride sharing (or at least the article doesn't cite that as a reason). I think autonomy and ride sharing will drive

Interesting that this has nothing to do with ride sharing (or at least the article doesn't cite that as a reason). I think autonomy and ride sharing will drive used cars nearer to the value of scrap metal within the next 5 years.

ghaff 9y ago
Uber/etc. make a difference at the margins but don't drastically reduce car ownership. I'd believe the effect is greater with those who don't buy new cars but still limited effect. I expect full autonomous driving to be much further out. Where it could have an effect though is this. To the degree that new vehicles become much more attractive because of new sensor and software features, that would likely drive used car prices down. These could certainly increase the perceived value of a current model year car vs. one from five years ago.
stephengillie 9y ago
How many miles will an Uber driver drive in a year - how many miles are they putting on the car? It pushes their value down, similar to taxis or police cars. Consider 2 similar 2015 Priuses, one with 32,000 mi, the other with 92,000 mi. The one with lower mileage will usually net a higher sale price.
TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
Your comment displays the incredible social and economic compartmentalization between the Silicon Valley/tech hubs of the country and everywhere else. Uber is not a viable alternative to vehicle ownership for the majority of places in the country, particularly in poorer and more rural areas, and likely never will be. When you've got to drive 20 miles to reach town, ordering an Uber doubles the time required to get there. As far as automation goes, in the consumer market, I highly doubt it will be anything more than a rich person's luxury for a good long while, since most people can barely afford a $10k vehicle, let alone a $100k one.
- rawrmaan 9y ago
  I appreciate your comment. I definitely didn't see it that way until now but I think you're right.
- mysterypie 9y ago
  80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas of at least 2500 people, and 71% live in places of 50,000 or more[1]. So most people don't need to drive 20 miles to reach town. You're right that Silicon Valley lives in a cocoon, but more than a few occasions where I thought a SV idea or trend was stupid, unaffordable, and unneeded, it turned out that a few years later the entire world had adopted it. I remember thinking who the hell needs a smartphone and who'd pay for that. Then 6 or 7 years later I saw beggars in a third-world country with smartphones. Beggars. I'm not ready to say that autonomous cars and ride sharing will be the norm in 5 years, but just because there are poor and rural people in middle America doesn't mean it won't happen. [1] https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.html https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.htm...
kalleboo 9y ago
5 years? Maybe in 20 years.

ghaff 9y ago

Uber/etc. make a difference at the margins but don't drastically reduce car ownership. I'd believe the effect is greater with those who don't buy new cars but still limited effect. I expect full autonomous driving to be much further out. Where it could have an effect though is this. To the degree that new vehicles become much more attractive because of new sensor and software features, that would likely drive used car prices down. These could certainly increase the perceived value of a current model year car vs. one from five years ago.

stephengillie 9y ago

How many miles will an Uber driver drive in a year - how many miles are they putting on the car? It pushes their value down, similar to taxis or police cars. Consider 2 similar 2015 Priuses, one with 32,000 mi, the other with 92,000 mi. The one with lower mileage will usually net a higher sale price.

TheAdamAndChe 9y ago

Your comment displays the incredible social and economic compartmentalization between the Silicon Valley/tech hubs of the country and everywhere else. Uber is not a viable alternative to vehicle ownership for the majority of places in the country, particularly in poorer and more rural areas, and likely never will be. When you've got to drive 20 miles to reach town, ordering an Uber doubles the time required to get there. As far as automation goes, in the consumer market, I highly doubt it will be anything more than a rich person's luxury for a good long while, since most people can barely afford a $10k vehicle, let alone a $100k one.

rawrmaan 9y ago
I appreciate your comment. I definitely didn't see it that way until now but I think you're right.
mysterypie 9y ago
80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas of at least 2500 people, and 71% live in places of 50,000 or more[1]. So most people don't need to drive 20 miles to reach town. You're right that Silicon Valley lives in a cocoon, but more than a few occasions where I thought a SV idea or trend was stupid, unaffordable, and unneeded, it turned out that a few years later the entire world had adopted it. I remember thinking who the hell needs a smartphone and who'd pay for that. Then 6 or 7 years later I saw beggars in a third-world country with smartphones. Beggars. I'm not ready to say that autonomous cars and ride sharing will be the norm in 5 years, but just because there are poor and rural people in middle America doesn't mean it won't happen. [1] https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.html https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.htm...

kalleboo 9y ago

5 years? Maybe in 20 years.