Also not useful to talk about such risks as a "percentage" chance. What does that mean -- given a significant sample of normally distributed parallel universes,

Also not useful to talk about such risks as a "percentage" chance. What does that mean -- given a significant sample of normally distributed parallel universes, the current situation would result in civil war? And, if it does, the impact is huge so perhaps even a 1% chance is something to worry about. Overall, not a useful way to think about political futures.