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eradication of Malaria (1000 deaths daily, much more suffering and cost to society). If great efforts are made to eradicate diseases in an area that has histor

eradication of Malaria (1000 deaths daily, much more suffering and cost to society). If great efforts are made to eradicate diseases in an area that has historically been subjected to various diseases such that the local population has adopted the reproduction strategy of having large amounts of offspring to counter premature deaths, but upon eradication/reduction of said diseases there is significant delay in the abatement of the overproduction strategy if it abates at all http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-worlds-most-important-graph/ http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-worlds-most-important-graph/ if this population surge then expands beyond it's historical borders and causes mass societal disruption on a neighboring continent whose civilization has historically contributed great innovation and wealth to the world at large, and subsequently, said wealth and innovation contribution declines because of said societal disruption, do those who sought to eradicate the various diseases harbor some responsibility for the diminished prospects of the world at large? Granted these are delicate questions but I believe their being asked has not just validity, but importance. Certainly, simply ignoring pain, disease, and suffering is almost universally unpalatable. But modifying one aspect of a complex system for what appears to be perfectly benevolent reasons, it is not at all surprising to find there could be downstream negative effects, negative enough to far outweigh whatever beneficent contribution you thought you were initially making. How do you make value judgments in such cases? Gates himself has said it is far better to help people where they are regarding the recent unauthorized population influx events in Europe. So I don't believe he is entirely blind to these potential downstream catastrophic effects.

hfourm 9y ago
That makes the assumption that the "disruption to the neighboring continent" is going to be worse as a result of overpopulation than it already is dealing with neighbors who are poor and impoverished and disease ridden. In both cases I don't think the "civilized" neighbor continent is enjoying the benefits of its poorer neighbor. There is an equal argument to be said that by eradicating these diseases that the poorer neighbor is able to pull itself out of that poverty. Regardless, history is filled with population surges and mass societal disruption -- I am sure we can resolve it over time.
- jtx1 9y ago
  Civilized, no quotes needed.
  - hfourm 9y ago
    Eh, mostly quotes since the definition of civilized is up for debate for the given discussion. Does an African neighbor qualify? European only? etc
ghostbrainalpha 9y ago
You are talking about children dying... And you are also making the assumption that only Europe can contribute to innovation, and Africans can only be a burden on their neighbors and will never become contributors. I would agree that if the solving of a crisis like Malaria results in population growth, we need to plan on success and also focus on supporting infrastructure for those people. But I think you are saying something much more horrific. Maybe work with your therapist on empathy. We need someone as smart as you to focus on making the world a better place for everyone, not using your intellect to make scientific justifications for genocide.
- canoebuilder 9y ago
  I don't know if that was an intentional flattery tactic to get me to read your most more closely, but it worked, thanks, regardless. I'm surprised if the post read as "more children dying is the obvious optimal path," that wasn't my intent. I'm meaning to draw attention to the fact that if we are going to have outside interventions into societies that have drastic effects on those societies, then the outside interventions should include plans for all foreseeable(and vigilance in watching for unforeseeable) drastic effects they incur, be they in population structure, political structure, etc. In this case birth control education seems a prudent corollary plan to disease eradication. But it's more of a thorny problem than just saying here read this book, take this class, take this pill, if these reproduction strategies are expressions of deeply ingrained genetic tendencies. Certainly birth rate in the western world has declined, but there are lots of differences in the western world and Africa. Not least of which westerners never had outside interventions into their culture and environment of this nature.
  - carlisle_ 9y ago
    You didn't address it and I think there is merit to the point being made about your "bedside manner". I agree with your viewpoint, but it is important to tread carefully when it comes to the lives of others. Your point can be lost not by lack of merit but by lack of semantics.
    - 9y ago
ouid 9y ago
Population growth is not exponential. Africa is not special.
DevX101 9y ago
What are your thoughts on pediatric cancer research in Western countries?
cvigoe 9y ago
Certainly, it is important to make efforts to be cognizant of negative ripple effects arising from even the most altruistic of endeavors, but it is also necessary to actually make decisions. The Horizon Effect[1] is unavoidable in situations like you are describing, but the most we can do is act conscientiously and avoid paralysis due to the inherent uncertainty that arises from our actions. I know this isn't the exact point you were raising, but reading in between your comment lies what I suspect is a hyper awareness of consequence, and I wanted to share my thoughts on that. In response to the specific fear you mention, while this may be possible, I would consider it more important to successfully eliminate Malaria than to not do so for fear of the negative repercussions you raise. I think it is both more uncertain and more unlikely for those negative consequences to materialize in such a way that leaves humanity and leaders unable to respond adequately. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_effect (edited for typos)
- canoebuilder 9y ago
  Good response! It is certainly good to consider this perspective, thanks for the insight and link. To me it seems that potential negative consequences of continued rapid population growth in Africa aren't so nebulous and beyond the horizon, we are already seeing them materialize, certainly there are other problems that need to solved as well, like certain elements of society attempting to browbeat others into thinking these societal disruptions are normal or acceptable or shouldn't be guarded against, but the population growth outside Europe is one of the prime movers of the negative effects we have already observed. If things continue as they are the only uncertainty is the degree to which European civilization and thus European civilization's contribution to the world is negatively effected. I harbor no affinity for Malaria or human suffering in general, but by ham handedly addressing this patch of suffering are we pulling open a larger patch somewhere else? So what's the best way to address the suffering caused by malaria with a little more finesse and awareness? Is there even a direct provable causal link between mosquito nets and population growth? As mentioned, we are discussing an immensely complex system with all the surprises and non-linearity that entails. what, if any, are other causes of African population growth? What should be the Hippocratic Oath for philanthropy? "First do no harm" is taken, "Secondarily no harm"? How many steps toward the horizon should we take to determine if harm is occurring?
pc86 9y ago
"How dare these children live and cause me mild economic discomfort."
- canoebuilder 9y ago
  The insight I was meaning to convey was more along the lines of, How much benefit have things like harnessing electricity, or the germ theory of disease brought to the world? Nearly incalculable right? So if European society suffers mass upheaval and disruption in coming years owing to causes we can plainly see at present, how many more of these monumental, universally beneficial innovations and achievements will die in the crib?
burkaman 9y ago
Why do you think healthier Africans would cause mass societal disruption in Europe? Do you think they're not capable of contributing to European society? Are they more likely to leave Africa if they don't have malaria? Is there no room for population expansion in Africa? I genuinely don't understand the premise of your questions. Why would people start leaving Africa, and why would it be a problem if they did?
- canoebuilder 9y ago
  You raise some worthy questions, particularly, Is there no room for population expansion in Africa? with which I would be happy to engage, but without knowing that we are operating on the same baseline level of reality, I'm hesitant to do so. Why would people start leaving Africa, and why would it be a problem if they did? Are you completely unaware of events that have been transpiring in Europe the past couple years?
  - burkaman 9y ago
    But I don't think it makes sense to compare population expansion to a refugee crisis. People leaving Africa right now are being forced out by war and violence, most of them aren't choosing to leave. In your hypothetical, I assume people are leaving for economic and social reasons, normal motivations for voluntary immigration. I don't think the refugee crisis will continue forever, and I don't think malaria eradication will reach the sources of the refugee crisis until the violence has mostly subsided. Edit: I phrased this a little wrong, the source of the current refugee crisis is mostly not Africa, but my point is that the societal disruption you're referring to is not caused by voluntary immigration.
    - bluthru 9y ago
      >People leaving Africa right now are being forced out by war and violence, most of them aren't choosing to leave. That was probably true in the past, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore: "The UN has said that seven in 10 people crossing the Mediterranean from Libya are economic migrants and the rest are 'people in need of protection' like refugees and asylum-seekers." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4661866/amp/UN-says-migrants-crossing-Libya-NOT-refugees.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4661866/amp/UN-says-... https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12FDB/production/_94878777_migrant-routes-624.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12FDB/production...
joshuahedlund 9y ago
Gates has addressed these concerns with scientific data showing that "when children survive in greater numbers, parents decide to have smaller families."[0] [0]https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Media/Annual-Letters-List/Annual-Letter-2014 https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Med...
- bluthru 9y ago
  Yeah they've been saying that for a while now. Who's wrong, Gates or the UN? http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/55d38ec0dd089595388b46c6-1200-900/regional-population-projections-centered-legend.png http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/55d38ec0dd089595388...
and0 9y ago
"Diminished prospects of the world at large" more accurately describes the world after your post, not saving millions of lives. This is what happens when you either have no empathy in your worldview or an extreme racial bias.
dmoy 9y ago
The US fertility rate is less than half of what it was a century ago, and less than a third of what it was 150-160 years ago. European fertility rates are similarly down by fourfold or something. It does not take many generations at all for fertility rates to drop precipitously once child mortality, women's education, etc go up. Your underlying premise "there is significant delay in the abatement of the overproduction strategy if it abates at all" is probably not correct, for any reasonable definition of "significant delay".
- canoebuilder 9y ago
  Your underlying premise "there is significant delay in the abatement of the overproduction strategy if it abates at all" is probably not correct That's the premise of population forecasters at the UN.
sctb 9y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15019192 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15019192 and marked it off-topic.

hfourm 9y ago

That makes the assumption that the "disruption to the neighboring continent" is going to be worse as a result of overpopulation than it already is dealing with neighbors who are poor and impoverished and disease ridden. In both cases I don't think the "civilized" neighbor continent is enjoying the benefits of its poorer neighbor. There is an equal argument to be said that by eradicating these diseases that the poorer neighbor is able to pull itself out of that poverty. Regardless, history is filled with population surges and mass societal disruption -- I am sure we can resolve it over time.

jtx1 9y ago
Civilized, no quotes needed.
- hfourm 9y ago
  Eh, mostly quotes since the definition of civilized is up for debate for the given discussion. Does an African neighbor qualify? European only? etc

ghostbrainalpha 9y ago

You are talking about children dying... And you are also making the assumption that only Europe can contribute to innovation, and Africans can only be a burden on their neighbors and will never become contributors. I would agree that if the solving of a crisis like Malaria results in population growth, we need to plan on success and also focus on supporting infrastructure for those people. But I think you are saying something much more horrific. Maybe work with your therapist on empathy. We need someone as smart as you to focus on making the world a better place for everyone, not using your intellect to make scientific justifications for genocide.

canoebuilder 9y ago
I don't know if that was an intentional flattery tactic to get me to read your most more closely, but it worked, thanks, regardless. I'm surprised if the post read as "more children dying is the obvious optimal path," that wasn't my intent. I'm meaning to draw attention to the fact that if we are going to have outside interventions into societies that have drastic effects on those societies, then the outside interventions should include plans for all foreseeable(and vigilance in watching for unforeseeable) drastic effects they incur, be they in population structure, political structure, etc. In this case birth control education seems a prudent corollary plan to disease eradication. But it's more of a thorny problem than just saying here read this book, take this class, take this pill, if these reproduction strategies are expressions of deeply ingrained genetic tendencies. Certainly birth rate in the western world has declined, but there are lots of differences in the western world and Africa. Not least of which westerners never had outside interventions into their culture and environment of this nature.
- carlisle_ 9y ago
  You didn't address it and I think there is merit to the point being made about your "bedside manner". I agree with your viewpoint, but it is important to tread carefully when it comes to the lives of others. Your point can be lost not by lack of merit but by lack of semantics.
  - 9y ago

ouid 9y ago

Population growth is not exponential. Africa is not special.

DevX101 9y ago

What are your thoughts on pediatric cancer research in Western countries?

cvigoe 9y ago

Certainly, it is important to make efforts to be cognizant of negative ripple effects arising from even the most altruistic of endeavors, but it is also necessary to actually make decisions. The Horizon Effect[1] is unavoidable in situations like you are describing, but the most we can do is act conscientiously and avoid paralysis due to the inherent uncertainty that arises from our actions. I know this isn't the exact point you were raising, but reading in between your comment lies what I suspect is a hyper awareness of consequence, and I wanted to share my thoughts on that. In response to the specific fear you mention, while this may be possible, I would consider it more important to successfully eliminate Malaria than to not do so for fear of the negative repercussions you raise. I think it is both more uncertain and more unlikely for those negative consequences to materialize in such a way that leaves humanity and leaders unable to respond adequately. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_effect (edited for typos)

canoebuilder 9y ago
Good response! It is certainly good to consider this perspective, thanks for the insight and link. To me it seems that potential negative consequences of continued rapid population growth in Africa aren't so nebulous and beyond the horizon, we are already seeing them materialize, certainly there are other problems that need to solved as well, like certain elements of society attempting to browbeat others into thinking these societal disruptions are normal or acceptable or shouldn't be guarded against, but the population growth outside Europe is one of the prime movers of the negative effects we have already observed. If things continue as they are the only uncertainty is the degree to which European civilization and thus European civilization's contribution to the world is negatively effected. I harbor no affinity for Malaria or human suffering in general, but by ham handedly addressing this patch of suffering are we pulling open a larger patch somewhere else? So what's the best way to address the suffering caused by malaria with a little more finesse and awareness? Is there even a direct provable causal link between mosquito nets and population growth? As mentioned, we are discussing an immensely complex system with all the surprises and non-linearity that entails. what, if any, are other causes of African population growth? What should be the Hippocratic Oath for philanthropy? "First do no harm" is taken, "Secondarily no harm"? How many steps toward the horizon should we take to determine if harm is occurring?

pc86 9y ago

"How dare these children live and cause me mild economic discomfort."

canoebuilder 9y ago
The insight I was meaning to convey was more along the lines of, How much benefit have things like harnessing electricity, or the germ theory of disease brought to the world? Nearly incalculable right? So if European society suffers mass upheaval and disruption in coming years owing to causes we can plainly see at present, how many more of these monumental, universally beneficial innovations and achievements will die in the crib?

burkaman 9y ago

Why do you think healthier Africans would cause mass societal disruption in Europe? Do you think they're not capable of contributing to European society? Are they more likely to leave Africa if they don't have malaria? Is there no room for population expansion in Africa? I genuinely don't understand the premise of your questions. Why would people start leaving Africa, and why would it be a problem if they did?

canoebuilder 9y ago
You raise some worthy questions, particularly, Is there no room for population expansion in Africa? with which I would be happy to engage, but without knowing that we are operating on the same baseline level of reality, I'm hesitant to do so. Why would people start leaving Africa, and why would it be a problem if they did? Are you completely unaware of events that have been transpiring in Europe the past couple years?
- burkaman 9y ago
  But I don't think it makes sense to compare population expansion to a refugee crisis. People leaving Africa right now are being forced out by war and violence, most of them aren't choosing to leave. In your hypothetical, I assume people are leaving for economic and social reasons, normal motivations for voluntary immigration. I don't think the refugee crisis will continue forever, and I don't think malaria eradication will reach the sources of the refugee crisis until the violence has mostly subsided. Edit: I phrased this a little wrong, the source of the current refugee crisis is mostly not Africa, but my point is that the societal disruption you're referring to is not caused by voluntary immigration.
  - bluthru 9y ago
    >People leaving Africa right now are being forced out by war and violence, most of them aren't choosing to leave. That was probably true in the past, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore: "The UN has said that seven in 10 people crossing the Mediterranean from Libya are economic migrants and the rest are 'people in need of protection' like refugees and asylum-seekers." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4661866/amp/UN-says-migrants-crossing-Libya-NOT-refugees.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4661866/amp/UN-says-... https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12FDB/production/_94878777_migrant-routes-624.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12FDB/production...

joshuahedlund 9y ago

Gates has addressed these concerns with scientific data showing that "when children survive in greater numbers, parents decide to have smaller families."[0] [0]https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Media/Annual-Letters-List/Annual-Letter-2014 https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Med...

bluthru 9y ago
Yeah they've been saying that for a while now. Who's wrong, Gates or the UN? http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/55d38ec0dd089595388b46c6-1200-900/regional-population-projections-centered-legend.png http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/55d38ec0dd089595388...

and0 9y ago

"Diminished prospects of the world at large" more accurately describes the world after your post, not saving millions of lives. This is what happens when you either have no empathy in your worldview or an extreme racial bias.

dmoy 9y ago

The US fertility rate is less than half of what it was a century ago, and less than a third of what it was 150-160 years ago. European fertility rates are similarly down by fourfold or something. It does not take many generations at all for fertility rates to drop precipitously once child mortality, women's education, etc go up. Your underlying premise "there is significant delay in the abatement of the overproduction strategy if it abates at all" is probably not correct, for any reasonable definition of "significant delay".

canoebuilder 9y ago
Your underlying premise "there is significant delay in the abatement of the overproduction strategy if it abates at all" is probably not correct That's the premise of population forecasters at the UN.

sctb 9y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15019192 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15019192 and marked it off-topic.