4 ms·

You're not wrong, but your logic is flawed - things are happening now that have never happened before, like New Automation, that are massive game-changers. This

You're not wrong, but your logic is flawed - things are happening now that have never happened before, like New Automation, that are massive game-changers. This means that things that have never worked before, will start working.

JoeAltmaier 9y ago
But to be fair, there's no going back. Automation means we don't actually need people to do huge numbers of things. Those displaced people may never have a job again. What got us here, won't get us where we're going. It's all going to have to be reexamined.
- leereeves 9y ago
  > Those displaced people may never have a job again. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 2001, and excluding 2000-2001, the lowest level since 1969. https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&hl=en&dl=en https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_...
  - JoeAltmaier 9y ago
    And next, McD's and Carls' are planning to do away with the counter staff. Banks automating tellers completely. Some 30 millions of Americans out of a job, at the lowest levels. What then? Automation is exploding at a dizzying rate for a decade now. Our ability to accommodate will be exceeded soon. Further, that graph looks like what happens when people fall off the employment rolls - they quit looking for a job and no longer show up as 'unemployed'. How can we tell that's not responsible?
    - leereeves 9y ago
      The number of people employed is also at an all-time high. https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=employed&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:US&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_... Automation may change that in the future, or people may insist on dealing with humans, or new jobs may emerge. Who can predict the future?
      - JoeAltmaier 9y ago
        These guys: https://economics.mit.edu/files/12763 https://economics.mit.edu/files/12763 This quote: "Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones. We bolster this evidence by showing that the commuting zones most exposed to robots in the post-1990 era do not exhibit any differential trends before 1990. The impact of robots is distinct from the impact of imports from China and Mexico, the decline of routine jobs, offshoring, other types of IT capital, and the total capital stock (in fact, exposure to robots is only weakly correlated with these other variables). According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5 percent."
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      Don't forget self driving vehicles. That will be a huge change.
  - jazzyk 9y ago
    The rate you quote is not a good indicator of overall unemployment - it only measures the dynamics of layoffs in the last 6 months. The more realistic measure of unemployment, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate is at about 63%, back to where we were in 1977. And a lot of women have joined the workforce since then. https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
    - leereeves 9y ago
      The CLFPR makes sense considering the age distribution and the number of students and retirees: Population over 18: roughly 240M In college: 20M Collecting Social Security: 60M Labor force: 160M https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enrollment-and-projections-in-public-and-private-institutions/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enroll... https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html
grasshopperpurp 9y ago
It doesn't mean that they will start working. Being generous, it means that it might now start working . . . for the first time ever.

JoeAltmaier 9y ago

But to be fair, there's no going back. Automation means we don't actually need people to do huge numbers of things. Those displaced people may never have a job again. What got us here, won't get us where we're going. It's all going to have to be reexamined.

leereeves 9y ago
> Those displaced people may never have a job again. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 2001, and excluding 2000-2001, the lowest level since 1969. https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&hl=en&dl=en https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_...
- JoeAltmaier 9y ago
  And next, McD's and Carls' are planning to do away with the counter staff. Banks automating tellers completely. Some 30 millions of Americans out of a job, at the lowest levels. What then? Automation is exploding at a dizzying rate for a decade now. Our ability to accommodate will be exceeded soon. Further, that graph looks like what happens when people fall off the employment rolls - they quit looking for a job and no longer show up as 'unemployed'. How can we tell that's not responsible?
  - leereeves 9y ago
    The number of people employed is also at an all-time high. https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=employed&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:US&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_... Automation may change that in the future, or people may insist on dealing with humans, or new jobs may emerge. Who can predict the future?
    - JoeAltmaier 9y ago
      These guys: https://economics.mit.edu/files/12763 https://economics.mit.edu/files/12763 This quote: "Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones. We bolster this evidence by showing that the commuting zones most exposed to robots in the post-1990 era do not exhibit any differential trends before 1990. The impact of robots is distinct from the impact of imports from China and Mexico, the decline of routine jobs, offshoring, other types of IT capital, and the total capital stock (in fact, exposure to robots is only weakly correlated with these other variables). According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5 percent."
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    Don't forget self driving vehicles. That will be a huge change.
- jazzyk 9y ago
  The rate you quote is not a good indicator of overall unemployment - it only measures the dynamics of layoffs in the last 6 months. The more realistic measure of unemployment, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate is at about 63%, back to where we were in 1977. And a lot of women have joined the workforce since then. https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
  - leereeves 9y ago
    The CLFPR makes sense considering the age distribution and the number of students and retirees: Population over 18: roughly 240M In college: 20M Collecting Social Security: 60M Labor force: 160M https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enrollment-and-projections-in-public-and-private-institutions/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enroll... https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html

grasshopperpurp 9y ago

It doesn't mean that they will start working. Being generous, it means that it might now start working . . . for the first time ever.