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>If self-driving is fully developed, people would buy fewer cars, and that's bad for Musk. Maybe on the long run but it looks like Tesla might have self-drivin

>If self-driving is fully developed, people would buy fewer cars, and that's bad for Musk. Maybe on the long run but it looks like Tesla might have self-driving cars about 12-24 months before anyone else, that's lucrative. I think a lot of the interest in Tesla cars (esp. those with the v.2 autopilot hardware) comes from the full self driving prospect. The economics of full self driving could be awesome for Tesla - they can operate a taxi network wherein sell the cars and the service. And Tesla earns ~$8k-$10k from people who upgrade their car to full self driving - that's probably the highest gross margin option in the automotive industry because all the new cars have the hardware built into them. There's one fixed cost: the software. If they build the software right, upon regulatory approval, they can cut down the team to a skeleton crew that just makes sure the system is self-improving.

ucaetano 9y ago
> "Maybe on the long run but it looks like Tesla might have self-driving cars about 12-24 months before anyone else, that's lucrative" Given that they are behind almost all other car makers, that's highly unlikely. [Source: self-driving disengagements per 100k miles from CA DMV]
- alexanderstears 9y ago
  That's not a good source. It looks like they only drive on public roads in challenging conditions, they're committed to self-driving by 2019. https://electrek.co/2017/04/29/elon-musk-tesla-plan-level-5-full-autonomous-driving/ https://electrek.co/2017/04/29/elon-musk-tesla-plan-level-5-... I think Volvo and Ford have the next commitment at 2021. Most other automakers see themselves licensing it by 2024-2026.
  - ucaetano 9y ago
    > That's not a good source. There are no other sources. Everything else is marketing and tweets. So, by the only actual existing data, Tesla is far behind most other carmakers.
    - alexanderstears 9y ago
      http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-compared-tesla-vs-bmw-mercedes-and-infiniti-feature-the-physiology-of-semi-autonomy-and-test-results-page-6 http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-co... Car and Driver saw an Autopilot 1 Tesla require half the interventions of BMW and Mercedes and ~1/4 ofthe interventions on an Infiniti.

ucaetano 9y ago

> "Maybe on the long run but it looks like Tesla might have self-driving cars about 12-24 months before anyone else, that's lucrative" Given that they are behind almost all other car makers, that's highly unlikely. [Source: self-driving disengagements per 100k miles from CA DMV]

alexanderstears 9y ago
That's not a good source. It looks like they only drive on public roads in challenging conditions, they're committed to self-driving by 2019. https://electrek.co/2017/04/29/elon-musk-tesla-plan-level-5-full-autonomous-driving/ https://electrek.co/2017/04/29/elon-musk-tesla-plan-level-5-... I think Volvo and Ford have the next commitment at 2021. Most other automakers see themselves licensing it by 2024-2026.
- ucaetano 9y ago
  > That's not a good source. There are no other sources. Everything else is marketing and tweets. So, by the only actual existing data, Tesla is far behind most other carmakers.
  - alexanderstears 9y ago
    http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-compared-tesla-vs-bmw-mercedes-and-infiniti-feature-the-physiology-of-semi-autonomy-and-test-results-page-6 http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-co... Car and Driver saw an Autopilot 1 Tesla require half the interventions of BMW and Mercedes and ~1/4 ofthe interventions on an Infiniti.