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There is an interesting discussion between Hal Finney and Satoshi in 2009 about the possible value of bitcoin. This is back when it was just a random software p

There is an interesting discussion between Hal Finney and Satoshi in 2009 about the possible value of bitcoin. This is back when it was just a random software project, and had zero value: http://diswww.mit.edu/bloom-picayune/crypto/142207 http://diswww.mit.edu/bloom-picayune/crypto/142207 As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

danieltillett 9y ago
Does anyone think the current owners of capital are going to sit by and let their powers and wealth be destroyed? If bitcoin were ever likely to become close to being the dominant payment system it will be outlawed with "extreme prejudice".
- gfody 9y ago
  Nah someone just needs to gift Donald Trump a fat stack of it and it'll be recognized as genuine legal tender in no time.
- EliRivers 9y ago
  Do the current owners of capital principally hold their money in cash? If they're holding their money in ownership of companies and things, then their wealth wouldn't be destroyed as (current) monies became displaced by bitcoin.
  - danieltillett 9y ago
    No they mostly own assets, but they need control over the money supply to ensure they don't lose control of the assets. How would the GFC gone if they did not have control of the money supply?
    - EliRivers 9y ago
      I'm not convinced. If I own a row of houses, bitcoin displacing dollars won't change that.
      - danieltillett 9y ago
        If you just own a row of houses you are not part of the 0.01% who are in control of the money supply.
        EliRivers 9y ago
        If I own so many houses (or other such assets that aren't simply a pile of dollar bills) that I'm part of the 0.01% (since you've changed the argument from "owners of capital" to "0.01%"), the dollar being displaced by the bitcoin as currency of choice doesn't change that.
        danieltillett 9y ago
        It does when the interest rate you have to pay on the mortgages you have over the properties can no longer be controlled. If you were the owner of many houses in 2007 and we used bitcoin rather than dollars you would have been in for a world of pain.
beefield 9y ago
And why, exactly, total value of currency should equal total amount of wealth? What exactly is the contradiction, arbitrage or other mechanism that sets total value of currency to total amount of wealth?
- honestlyreally 9y ago
  The original assumption was just world cash supply (M0), include all m3 supply and you in for a surprise. Who creates money is the best answer to your questions.
  - beefield 9y ago
    You mean (US) M3 equals (US) wealth? Why? Can you back that claim with statistics?
- nostrademons 9y ago
  It's not, actually - the total value of all physical $USD (M0) is only about $3.8T, vs. the figure of $100-300T given for total wealth (which seems low to me, BTW). The actual truth is even weirder: if Bitcoin takes over as the world currency, its value in $USD will be infinite, but the question will be meaningless, as the dollar will be worthless. Currencies tend to be winner-take-all within a society; if one takes over, its rivals lose all value, as their only value is in being a medium of exchange and store of value. This is perhaps a contributory factor to the Bitcoin's volatility: if you actually believe it's going to succeed, unambiguously, the rational thing to do is to move all your wealth to Bitcoin. And similarly, if you believe it's going to fail, the currency by definition is worthless.
  - nimos 9y ago
    There are 164 national currencies in the world. The USD is the defaco world currency and the USD is not worth infinite of other currencies and the rest are certainty not worthless. I think the US government tolerates crypocurrencies because realistically they are far more damaging to countries like Venezula and China who have much more restrictive economies and in those countries the flexibility of bitcoin is a huge advantage. How many aircraft carries does bitcoin have? 0. Which (in my opinion) happens to be the exact same chance of bitcoin usurping the USD as a global currency short of some fundamental change in world power.
deleted 9y ago
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taysic 9y ago
I think Bitcoin has potential but the majority of people do not want their everyday currency to change value everyday
- olegkikin 9y ago
  Every currency changes its value every day. Every minute even. Plus I don't think anybody would mind if their currency tends to increase in value.

danieltillett 9y ago

Does anyone think the current owners of capital are going to sit by and let their powers and wealth be destroyed? If bitcoin were ever likely to become close to being the dominant payment system it will be outlawed with "extreme prejudice".

gfody 9y ago
Nah someone just needs to gift Donald Trump a fat stack of it and it'll be recognized as genuine legal tender in no time.
EliRivers 9y ago
Do the current owners of capital principally hold their money in cash? If they're holding their money in ownership of companies and things, then their wealth wouldn't be destroyed as (current) monies became displaced by bitcoin.
- danieltillett 9y ago
  No they mostly own assets, but they need control over the money supply to ensure they don't lose control of the assets. How would the GFC gone if they did not have control of the money supply?
  - EliRivers 9y ago
    I'm not convinced. If I own a row of houses, bitcoin displacing dollars won't change that.
    - danieltillett 9y ago
      If you just own a row of houses you are not part of the 0.01% who are in control of the money supply.
      - EliRivers 9y ago
        If I own so many houses (or other such assets that aren't simply a pile of dollar bills) that I'm part of the 0.01% (since you've changed the argument from "owners of capital" to "0.01%"), the dollar being displaced by the bitcoin as currency of choice doesn't change that.
        danieltillett 9y ago
        It does when the interest rate you have to pay on the mortgages you have over the properties can no longer be controlled. If you were the owner of many houses in 2007 and we used bitcoin rather than dollars you would have been in for a world of pain.

beefield 9y ago

And why, exactly, total value of currency should equal total amount of wealth? What exactly is the contradiction, arbitrage or other mechanism that sets total value of currency to total amount of wealth?

honestlyreally 9y ago
The original assumption was just world cash supply (M0), include all m3 supply and you in for a surprise. Who creates money is the best answer to your questions.
- beefield 9y ago
  You mean (US) M3 equals (US) wealth? Why? Can you back that claim with statistics?
nostrademons 9y ago
It's not, actually - the total value of all physical $USD (M0) is only about $3.8T, vs. the figure of $100-300T given for total wealth (which seems low to me, BTW). The actual truth is even weirder: if Bitcoin takes over as the world currency, its value in $USD will be infinite, but the question will be meaningless, as the dollar will be worthless. Currencies tend to be winner-take-all within a society; if one takes over, its rivals lose all value, as their only value is in being a medium of exchange and store of value. This is perhaps a contributory factor to the Bitcoin's volatility: if you actually believe it's going to succeed, unambiguously, the rational thing to do is to move all your wealth to Bitcoin. And similarly, if you believe it's going to fail, the currency by definition is worthless.
- nimos 9y ago
  There are 164 national currencies in the world. The USD is the defaco world currency and the USD is not worth infinite of other currencies and the rest are certainty not worthless. I think the US government tolerates crypocurrencies because realistically they are far more damaging to countries like Venezula and China who have much more restrictive economies and in those countries the flexibility of bitcoin is a huge advantage. How many aircraft carries does bitcoin have? 0. Which (in my opinion) happens to be the exact same chance of bitcoin usurping the USD as a global currency short of some fundamental change in world power.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

taysic 9y ago

I think Bitcoin has potential but the majority of people do not want their everyday currency to change value everyday

olegkikin 9y ago
Every currency changes its value every day. Every minute even. Plus I don't think anybody would mind if their currency tends to increase in value.