4 ms·

There's a very simple solution for anyone worried about fragmentation: don't buy it. We got into a bad situation with cable because we didn't have a choice. It

There's a very simple solution for anyone worried about fragmentation: don't buy it. We got into a bad situation with cable because we didn't have a choice. It was either pay $80 per month for everything, or not watch TV at all. We have choices now, and Disney isn't going to be able to force their service on anyone. If people really like their new products and think it's worth the money, then fine. If people hate having to pay them separately and no one signs up, then they'll shut it down and go back to how it is now. Consumers have a lot of power now, and whatever happens will likely be in their interests. I personally would be willing to pay a good bit of money to have access to the full back catalog of films from all the major studios. The streaming services' catalogs are very limited, and I'm often in the mood to watch one particular movie that isn't available. Spotify has nearly every song I ever want to listen to. Nothing exists like that for movies.

rorykoehler 9y ago
I already buy netflix and Spotify. There is zero chance I'll buy another service. If it's not in either of these and i absolutely must consume it (unlikely) then I'll get it somewhere for free. No way I'll buy another service. With av content netflix already offers more than i have time to watch. Music is different in that i still pass mixtapes (digital versions) around but there is little chance you'd find any of that content anywhere (except maybe soundcloud before it died)
seanp2k2 9y ago
I agree on all accounts, however, movies aren't really comparable to music. An episode of a show costs a ton more than a song to make (typically vs typically, there are cheap shows and expensive songs, sure). A movie costs a lot more than an album to produce. http://mentalfloss.com/article/57656/15-albums-cost-fortune-make http://mentalfloss.com/article/57656/15-albums-cost-fortune-... has an album costing $15m to produce which was a huge outlier. Most expensive albums are in the $1-$2mm range. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films has the most expensive films above $300mm a pop. That's two orders of magnitude, and granted there are way fewer movies than albums (I think), a Spotify for movies with tons of back catalogue coverage would probably need to cost $100-$1000/month to make it worth it to the studios. Actually, $150 a month to legally watch almost anything ever made would be a fairly appealing option. Good luck getting even a few studios on board, though. Pricing in future expected rev into it, it'd probably need to be closer to the $1k/month mark to make it worth it. It'll never happen.
- baron816 9y ago
  I agree. Additionally, I'm not going to watch the same movie everyday for weeks or months at a time like I do with an album. Renting movies from Amazon/iTunes/Vudu is probably the optimal solution in my case. It's strange how this was the norm in the pre-Netflix days, and now, the idea of paying a la carte makes us feel like we're wasting money. Maybe we need an Audible model where we get ~6 movies a month for a flat fee and discounts after that. I don't know what to do with television content.
nebabyte 9y ago
> There's a very simple solution for anyone worried about fragmentation: don't buy it. I'm not exactly sure what the flaw in this reasoning is called - tragedy of the commons comes to mind but that's not it; it's more like a prisoner's dilemma over a population - but if you're somehow not aware of this by now, this "solution" does nothing in the real world. It's the same "solution" that is supposed to ensure bad politicians, bad companies, and so on do not take or keep power. "Just boycott X. Just don't vote for Y." There are more than enough people in the given population that trying to influence the landscape by trying to "rally the people!" to make the best decision for the whole rather than the simple or convenient one for themselves fails, literally every time. Honestly, if you don't already know that, I don't know what rock you've been living under, but it must be comfortable under there.
- baron816 9y ago
  I get what you're saying. It is a prisoner's dilemma. Tragedy of the commons is also a form of prisoner's dilemma. It won't take an organized effort to reach an equilibrium where consumers benefit. People's incentives aren't to defect and pay the money for the additional services. They're much more likely to just not watch Disney's products, or torrent them. Disney could've very easily have just not licensed their content to Netflix and made everyone buy their DVDs, but they didn't because no one buys DVDs anymore--they watch Netflix. They're banking on the notion that their content is so good that people will pay extra for it. If their content really is that good, then maybe people should pay extra for it. In that case they'll still be paying less than what it's actually worth to them. If not, then they won't. People can watch other stuff, or Disney will abandon the project.
nitwit005 9y ago
You're assuming the companies will rationally respond to the market pressure. They'll probably just go broke instead. Media companies often seem happy to deny the realities of the market when it comes to licensing and distribution.

rorykoehler 9y ago

I already buy netflix and Spotify. There is zero chance I'll buy another service. If it's not in either of these and i absolutely must consume it (unlikely) then I'll get it somewhere for free. No way I'll buy another service. With av content netflix already offers more than i have time to watch. Music is different in that i still pass mixtapes (digital versions) around but there is little chance you'd find any of that content anywhere (except maybe soundcloud before it died)

seanp2k2 9y ago

I agree on all accounts, however, movies aren't really comparable to music. An episode of a show costs a ton more than a song to make (typically vs typically, there are cheap shows and expensive songs, sure). A movie costs a lot more than an album to produce. http://mentalfloss.com/article/57656/15-albums-cost-fortune-make http://mentalfloss.com/article/57656/15-albums-cost-fortune-... has an album costing $15m to produce which was a huge outlier. Most expensive albums are in the $1-$2mm range. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films has the most expensive films above $300mm a pop. That's two orders of magnitude, and granted there are way fewer movies than albums (I think), a Spotify for movies with tons of back catalogue coverage would probably need to cost $100-$1000/month to make it worth it to the studios. Actually, $150 a month to legally watch almost anything ever made would be a fairly appealing option. Good luck getting even a few studios on board, though. Pricing in future expected rev into it, it'd probably need to be closer to the $1k/month mark to make it worth it. It'll never happen.

baron816 9y ago
I agree. Additionally, I'm not going to watch the same movie everyday for weeks or months at a time like I do with an album. Renting movies from Amazon/iTunes/Vudu is probably the optimal solution in my case. It's strange how this was the norm in the pre-Netflix days, and now, the idea of paying a la carte makes us feel like we're wasting money. Maybe we need an Audible model where we get ~6 movies a month for a flat fee and discounts after that. I don't know what to do with television content.

nebabyte 9y ago

> There's a very simple solution for anyone worried about fragmentation: don't buy it. I'm not exactly sure what the flaw in this reasoning is called - tragedy of the commons comes to mind but that's not it; it's more like a prisoner's dilemma over a population - but if you're somehow not aware of this by now, this "solution" does nothing in the real world. It's the same "solution" that is supposed to ensure bad politicians, bad companies, and so on do not take or keep power. "Just boycott X. Just don't vote for Y." There are more than enough people in the given population that trying to influence the landscape by trying to "rally the people!" to make the best decision for the whole rather than the simple or convenient one for themselves fails, literally every time. Honestly, if you don't already know that, I don't know what rock you've been living under, but it must be comfortable under there.

baron816 9y ago
I get what you're saying. It is a prisoner's dilemma. Tragedy of the commons is also a form of prisoner's dilemma. It won't take an organized effort to reach an equilibrium where consumers benefit. People's incentives aren't to defect and pay the money for the additional services. They're much more likely to just not watch Disney's products, or torrent them. Disney could've very easily have just not licensed their content to Netflix and made everyone buy their DVDs, but they didn't because no one buys DVDs anymore--they watch Netflix. They're banking on the notion that their content is so good that people will pay extra for it. If their content really is that good, then maybe people should pay extra for it. In that case they'll still be paying less than what it's actually worth to them. If not, then they won't. People can watch other stuff, or Disney will abandon the project.

nitwit005 9y ago

You're assuming the companies will rationally respond to the market pressure. They'll probably just go broke instead. Media companies often seem happy to deny the realities of the market when it comes to licensing and distribution.