5 ms·

Bitcoin just passed $4,000

53 points by janober 9y ago

caiob 9y ago
Honest question: Why should I care?
- colordrops 9y ago
  There are posts here about business valuations all the time. Would you make the same comment for those?
  - caiob 9y ago
    Business valuations are different than currency exchange rates IMO. What's wrong with my comment? Is asking about something I don't understand wrong?
    - Buge 9y ago
      Currency exchange rates affect businesses as well. It affects buying power between countries and can give companies in one country an advantage over companies in another country.
    - synicalx 9y ago
      Not knowing everything there is to know about Bitcoin is verbotten on HN. So is having a differing opinion apparently, as I re-discover every few weeks.
  - synicalx 9y ago
    I can't of any one single business where the day-to-day news fluctuates between "Oh no! It's worth nothing!" and "NEW RECORD HIGH". Basically, BTC fluctuating wildly because of [current event] is not new s it's just a normal and expected function of the "currency". If Google went from being worth nothing to being worth double it's current value every 48 hours then I'd probably get sick of hearing about that too.
- firekvz 9y ago
  you care enough to post this, could just ignore it.
  - synicalx 9y ago
    Maybe that person is actually asking an honest question, as their comment alludes to?
- heheocoenev 9y ago
  Because something is happening. Large trades from Korean exchanges are driving very high prices worldwide. It means people are fearful of the existing financial system and are pouring their savings into "cryptocurrency".
  - firekvz 9y ago
    more like, people want to double their spare money/likes to read news where they see how much "they won" by gambling on cripto.. not their savings
  - caiob 9y ago
    Interesting trend. Def a gamble though.
- Illniyar 9y ago
  Do you care about everything on HN? Other people care.
  - caiob 9y ago
    I didn't say I don't care. I'm asking to be educated, unfortunately instead I'm being downvoted.
    - Illniyar 9y ago
      Your phrasing is perceived as passive aggressive. If you wanted to be educated a better phrasing could be: "what makes this event important?", or "can anyone explain why is this on the front page?" The phrase "why should I care?" Is most often used simply to say you don't care, kinda like a rhetorical question
      - caiob 9y ago
        And I thought prefixing it with "Honest question:" would convey tone. Thanks for the lingo tips, next time I'll type more eloquently.
do5 9y ago
This is just speculative but the Bitcoin fork was probably the best thing to happen to the price of bitcoin. http://amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/08/07/bitcoin-cash-bch-hard-fork-blockchain-usd-coinbase/?source=dam http://amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/08/07/bitcoin-cash-bch-h...
BatFastard 9y ago
Why? How does this make sense?
- nosuchthing 9y ago
  It doesn't. Especially considering all the other cryptocoin networks which facilitate the same service the bitcoin network does. The very limited number of exchanges essentially have an oligopoly, and as price climbs slowly the fall in price and 'runs on the banks' can happen extremely rapidly as the exchanges have no obligation to buy your coins for anything other then 'market rate' which assumes there's a buyer. Oh, and market demand is largely driven by bots and speculators - not the actual functionality of the BTC network. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-bots-bought-millions-in-the-last-days-of-mt-gox https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-b... http://parasec.net/transmission/order-book-visualisation/ http://parasec.net/transmission/order-book-visualisation/
  - phaed 9y ago
    BTC is a store of value. How does the functionality of gold figure into its value?
    - fweespeech 9y ago
      And yet you are ignorant of a decade long gold bubble and insist these things don't happen.
    - nosuchthing 9y ago
      BTC doesn't store value. What value is it? Why is it good that bitcoin is so inefficient? What are the alternatives and is it possible to improve any of the failures of bitcoin? Are you speaking with a bias because you have invested in bitcoin and you want to cash out some day? The Bitcoin network stores numbers in a distributed database. Why is that valuable? Take a look at http://coinmarketcap.com/ http://coinmarketcap.com/ What makes BTC rare or valuable?
      - 9y ago
phaed 9y ago
People look at price history of Bitcoin, see the hockey stick, and immediately call bubble. http://imgur.com/a/ifk2b http://imgur.com/a/ifk2b What they fail to realize is that these linear charts plot a $5 change the same distance when Bitcoin is $10 as when Bitcoin is $4000. Yet for Bitcoin to go up to $15 when it was $10 it had to increase in market cap by 50%. For bitcoin to go up from $4000 to $4005 it doesn't need jack squat, it's a rounding error. A better view of Bitcoin's price is in log scale. Here you can see that the growth is steady: http://i.imgur.com/R9yQ8Dk.png http://i.imgur.com/R9yQ8Dk.png There is nothing special happening now, as there was nothing special when it went from $5->$10, $50->$100, $100->$200, $500->$1000, $1000->$2000. People just want them, and they are a finite resource.
- TylerE 9y ago
  Actually the log chart shows a substantial dip after every spike.
  - phaed 9y ago
    And what happens after the dips?
    - TylerE 9y ago
      So you acknowledge the dips exist?
      - phaed 9y ago
        I'm neither blind or deluded. After catastrophes like the MTGox theft where trust was lost with Bitcoin, and the recent uncertainty with Segwith2x, the market has taken a dive but has always turned around. There are billions of dollars waiting in the side lines for opportunities to buy cheap Bitcoins. Weak hands lose their money to opportune investors when these things happen.
  - Buge 9y ago
    Well it wouldn't be a spike if there wasn't a dip after it. You can say pretty much the same thing about any stock.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
basicplus2 9y ago
Seems it would be difficult to use Bitcoin for the payment of goods and services if its value is changing all the time, or is this not its intended purpose?
- bduerst 9y ago
  While Bitcoin fans say it's both, their behavior is usually divided between using bitcoin as a form of value sink or value transfer. The former is good for an asset, the latter is good for a currency. Right now, the volatile behavior of bitcoin shows it being much more of a speculative asset than a currency.
- nosuchthing 9y ago
  It's almost impossible given the Bitcoin network can only process 3 transactions per second.
- fweespeech 9y ago
  If transactions were close to instantaneous, it wouldn't be an issue. Buy in USD -> Pay in Bitcoin -> Receive Bitcoin -> Convert to USD needs to happen in under a minute. However. Those transactions frequently take a substantial chunk of real time in which time the value fluctuates more than a currency normally would.
- phaed 9y ago
  Currently, Bitcoin is used as a store of value not so much for day to day transactions. It's still evolving, its software, and it's upgradable.
  - thaumasiotes 9y ago
    That's exactly what you'd expect from a deflationary currency...
    - phaed 9y ago
      Whats your point?
probe 9y ago
One thing I think a lot of people get wrong about tech is a "fear of large numbers". Our mind is trained to think linearly (ex. Path prediction when we're trying to get somewhere), and so when things don't align to it, it's very hard to comprehend. A friend gave a great example demonstrating this - would you bet that Uber/lyft will grow revenues by 25% next quarter or a boring newspaper company will grow by 3%. Doesnt the 3% seem like such a tempting answer, even though the former bet is most likely better? I think something similar is happening when looking at cryptocurrencies (and several tech phenomenons). This fear of large growth numbers can inhibit clearer thinking (and you see that among public equity tech investors)
shadykiller 9y ago
Wait for a crash. Buy bitcoins. Sell at this bubble high. Get rich quick. Repeat...
- deweller 9y ago
  But is $4000 the high before the crash? Or will it go up to $6000 first? And when it crashes, will it go up again? Or is it just the start of a 6 month bear market? Attempting to time the market will cause you to lose you money roughly 50% of the time. If you believe Bitcoin is undervalued, buy it. If you think it is overvalued and you own some, sell it.
musikele 9y ago
It's strange that nobody thinks that the war with North Korea has anything to do with this. I believe chinese people is buying bitcoins in fear of a nuclear war.
- srigi 9y ago
  Wheres the logic in that. How do you buy food or medicals in postapocalyptic world with BTC?

53 points by janober 9y ago

caiob 9y ago

Honest question: Why should I care?

colordrops 9y ago
There are posts here about business valuations all the time. Would you make the same comment for those?
- caiob 9y ago
  Business valuations are different than currency exchange rates IMO. What's wrong with my comment? Is asking about something I don't understand wrong?
  - Buge 9y ago
    Currency exchange rates affect businesses as well. It affects buying power between countries and can give companies in one country an advantage over companies in another country.
  - synicalx 9y ago
    Not knowing everything there is to know about Bitcoin is verbotten on HN. So is having a differing opinion apparently, as I re-discover every few weeks.
- synicalx 9y ago
  I can't of any one single business where the day-to-day news fluctuates between "Oh no! It's worth nothing!" and "NEW RECORD HIGH". Basically, BTC fluctuating wildly because of [current event] is not new s it's just a normal and expected function of the "currency". If Google went from being worth nothing to being worth double it's current value every 48 hours then I'd probably get sick of hearing about that too.
firekvz 9y ago
you care enough to post this, could just ignore it.
- synicalx 9y ago
  Maybe that person is actually asking an honest question, as their comment alludes to?
heheocoenev 9y ago
Because something is happening. Large trades from Korean exchanges are driving very high prices worldwide. It means people are fearful of the existing financial system and are pouring their savings into "cryptocurrency".
- firekvz 9y ago
  more like, people want to double their spare money/likes to read news where they see how much "they won" by gambling on cripto.. not their savings
- caiob 9y ago
  Interesting trend. Def a gamble though.
Illniyar 9y ago
Do you care about everything on HN? Other people care.
- caiob 9y ago
  I didn't say I don't care. I'm asking to be educated, unfortunately instead I'm being downvoted.
  - Illniyar 9y ago
    Your phrasing is perceived as passive aggressive. If you wanted to be educated a better phrasing could be: "what makes this event important?", or "can anyone explain why is this on the front page?" The phrase "why should I care?" Is most often used simply to say you don't care, kinda like a rhetorical question
    - caiob 9y ago
      And I thought prefixing it with "Honest question:" would convey tone. Thanks for the lingo tips, next time I'll type more eloquently.

do5 9y ago

This is just speculative but the Bitcoin fork was probably the best thing to happen to the price of bitcoin. http://amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/08/07/bitcoin-cash-bch-hard-fork-blockchain-usd-coinbase/?source=dam http://amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/08/07/bitcoin-cash-bch-h...

BatFastard 9y ago

Why? How does this make sense?

nosuchthing 9y ago
It doesn't. Especially considering all the other cryptocoin networks which facilitate the same service the bitcoin network does. The very limited number of exchanges essentially have an oligopoly, and as price climbs slowly the fall in price and 'runs on the banks' can happen extremely rapidly as the exchanges have no obligation to buy your coins for anything other then 'market rate' which assumes there's a buyer. Oh, and market demand is largely driven by bots and speculators - not the actual functionality of the BTC network. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-bots-bought-millions-in-the-last-days-of-mt-gox https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-b... http://parasec.net/transmission/order-book-visualisation/ http://parasec.net/transmission/order-book-visualisation/
- phaed 9y ago
  BTC is a store of value. How does the functionality of gold figure into its value?
  - fweespeech 9y ago
    And yet you are ignorant of a decade long gold bubble and insist these things don't happen.
  - nosuchthing 9y ago
    BTC doesn't store value. What value is it? Why is it good that bitcoin is so inefficient? What are the alternatives and is it possible to improve any of the failures of bitcoin? Are you speaking with a bias because you have invested in bitcoin and you want to cash out some day? The Bitcoin network stores numbers in a distributed database. Why is that valuable? Take a look at http://coinmarketcap.com/ http://coinmarketcap.com/ What makes BTC rare or valuable?
    - 9y ago

phaed 9y ago

People look at price history of Bitcoin, see the hockey stick, and immediately call bubble. http://imgur.com/a/ifk2b http://imgur.com/a/ifk2b What they fail to realize is that these linear charts plot a $5 change the same distance when Bitcoin is $10 as when Bitcoin is $4000. Yet for Bitcoin to go up to $15 when it was $10 it had to increase in market cap by 50%. For bitcoin to go up from $4000 to $4005 it doesn't need jack squat, it's a rounding error. A better view of Bitcoin's price is in log scale. Here you can see that the growth is steady: http://i.imgur.com/R9yQ8Dk.png http://i.imgur.com/R9yQ8Dk.png There is nothing special happening now, as there was nothing special when it went from $5->$10, $50->$100, $100->$200, $500->$1000, $1000->$2000. People just want them, and they are a finite resource.

TylerE 9y ago
Actually the log chart shows a substantial dip after every spike.
- phaed 9y ago
  And what happens after the dips?
  - TylerE 9y ago
    So you acknowledge the dips exist?
    - phaed 9y ago
      I'm neither blind or deluded. After catastrophes like the MTGox theft where trust was lost with Bitcoin, and the recent uncertainty with Segwith2x, the market has taken a dive but has always turned around. There are billions of dollars waiting in the side lines for opportunities to buy cheap Bitcoins. Weak hands lose their money to opportune investors when these things happen.
- Buge 9y ago
  Well it wouldn't be a spike if there wasn't a dip after it. You can say pretty much the same thing about any stock.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

basicplus2 9y ago

Seems it would be difficult to use Bitcoin for the payment of goods and services if its value is changing all the time, or is this not its intended purpose?

bduerst 9y ago
While Bitcoin fans say it's both, their behavior is usually divided between using bitcoin as a form of value sink or value transfer. The former is good for an asset, the latter is good for a currency. Right now, the volatile behavior of bitcoin shows it being much more of a speculative asset than a currency.
nosuchthing 9y ago
It's almost impossible given the Bitcoin network can only process 3 transactions per second.
fweespeech 9y ago
If transactions were close to instantaneous, it wouldn't be an issue. Buy in USD -> Pay in Bitcoin -> Receive Bitcoin -> Convert to USD needs to happen in under a minute. However. Those transactions frequently take a substantial chunk of real time in which time the value fluctuates more than a currency normally would.
phaed 9y ago
Currently, Bitcoin is used as a store of value not so much for day to day transactions. It's still evolving, its software, and it's upgradable.
- thaumasiotes 9y ago
  That's exactly what you'd expect from a deflationary currency...
  - phaed 9y ago
    Whats your point?

probe 9y ago

One thing I think a lot of people get wrong about tech is a "fear of large numbers". Our mind is trained to think linearly (ex. Path prediction when we're trying to get somewhere), and so when things don't align to it, it's very hard to comprehend. A friend gave a great example demonstrating this - would you bet that Uber/lyft will grow revenues by 25% next quarter or a boring newspaper company will grow by 3%. Doesnt the 3% seem like such a tempting answer, even though the former bet is most likely better? I think something similar is happening when looking at cryptocurrencies (and several tech phenomenons). This fear of large growth numbers can inhibit clearer thinking (and you see that among public equity tech investors)

shadykiller 9y ago

Wait for a crash. Buy bitcoins. Sell at this bubble high. Get rich quick. Repeat...

deweller 9y ago
But is $4000 the high before the crash? Or will it go up to $6000 first? And when it crashes, will it go up again? Or is it just the start of a 6 month bear market? Attempting to time the market will cause you to lose you money roughly 50% of the time. If you believe Bitcoin is undervalued, buy it. If you think it is overvalued and you own some, sell it.

musikele 9y ago

It's strange that nobody thinks that the war with North Korea has anything to do with this. I believe chinese people is buying bitcoins in fear of a nuclear war.

srigi 9y ago
Wheres the logic in that. How do you buy food or medicals in postapocalyptic world with BTC?