3 ms·
Any relevant prediction model should account for the probability of black swans existence, even if it may have no idea what a black swan might look like.
by pcmaffey 9y ago
Any relevant prediction model should account for the probability of black swans existence, even if it may have no idea what a black swan might look like.
- TimPC 9y agoThis runs against the challenge that (almost?) all statistical methods train by fitting a model to some sort of data. If you have zero examples of a black swan in the data you can agree in principle they might exist but you'd expect a statistical model to get them wrong.