5 ms·

I'm one of the authors of this post - look forward to hearing you comments!

by robertwiblin 9y ago

sharemywin 9y ago
So, I couldn't get a good feel on how much of the issue is small sample size?
- BenjaminTodd 9y ago
  Some of it is that, but much less so for the meta-analyses. We have a bunch more comments about this in the doc.
confounded 9y ago
It would be good to get your read on whether this is absence of evidence, or evidence of absence. To me (I work in stats) it sounds like the former, but the general reader could get the impression of the latter, especially given the title. What's your take?
jake-low 9y ago
Thank you for including such a thorough and approachable conclusion. As someone with no background in statistics, it helped me understand the content. Genetic mutations seem to have similar properties (by analogy). Most don't 'work', but evolution still uses random mutation to build better organisms. Progress is sensitive to the degree of selection pressure: too small, and unfit organisms will reproduce; too great, and even fit organisms will frequently die. I wonder if there's an empirical way to determine the optimal degree of selection pressure (where "optimal" means the degree which most rapidly improves the organisms) and whether the same logic could be applied to determine what fraction of underperforming social programs to cut and replace with new programs.
therebedragons 9y ago
Criticism: (buttering up first, as all good criticisms do: I give to the Give Directly UBI test through Effective Altruism Australia, basically because I read Doing good Better, and am very pro what you are all doing with 80,000 hours specifically). I think the mistake of the article is that you assume people have a context for your asking these sorts of questions. I know it is tedious to start with the context every. time. but without some context, the articles end up preaching a little to the converted, or risk putting people offside. They are also impossible to share, which is a shame because I think the basic premise (do good better) is really easy to sell, and the methodology really helpful. Maybe a prominent push of https://80000hours.org/career-guide/world-problems/#how-to-work-out-which-problems-you-should-focus-on https://80000hours.org/career-guide/world-problems/#how-to-w... front and centre, 1st paragraph would help? Or perhaps a sentence or two aimed at someone for whom this article is their first exposure to your site/concepts?
vacri 9y ago
I think the title is phrased badly. You wouldn't say "most businesses don't work", because business is obviously doing just fine. Yet it's true, since most businesses fail in the first few years - 80% by some calculations. And you'd be laughed out of the room if you used this statistic to argue that businesses aren't working.

I'm one of the authors of this post - look forward to hearing you comments!

sharemywin 9y ago

So, I couldn't get a good feel on how much of the issue is small sample size?

BenjaminTodd 9y ago
Some of it is that, but much less so for the meta-analyses. We have a bunch more comments about this in the doc.

confounded 9y ago

It would be good to get your read on whether this is absence of evidence, or evidence of absence. To me (I work in stats) it sounds like the former, but the general reader could get the impression of the latter, especially given the title. What's your take?

jake-low 9y ago

Thank you for including such a thorough and approachable conclusion. As someone with no background in statistics, it helped me understand the content. Genetic mutations seem to have similar properties (by analogy). Most don't 'work', but evolution still uses random mutation to build better organisms. Progress is sensitive to the degree of selection pressure: too small, and unfit organisms will reproduce; too great, and even fit organisms will frequently die. I wonder if there's an empirical way to determine the optimal degree of selection pressure (where "optimal" means the degree which most rapidly improves the organisms) and whether the same logic could be applied to determine what fraction of underperforming social programs to cut and replace with new programs.

therebedragons 9y ago

Criticism: (buttering up first, as all good criticisms do: I give to the Give Directly UBI test through Effective Altruism Australia, basically because I read Doing good Better, and am very pro what you are all doing with 80,000 hours specifically). I think the mistake of the article is that you assume people have a context for your asking these sorts of questions. I know it is tedious to start with the context every. time. but without some context, the articles end up preaching a little to the converted, or risk putting people offside. They are also impossible to share, which is a shame because I think the basic premise (do good better) is really easy to sell, and the methodology really helpful. Maybe a prominent push of https://80000hours.org/career-guide/world-problems/#how-to-work-out-which-problems-you-should-focus-on https://80000hours.org/career-guide/world-problems/#how-to-w... front and centre, 1st paragraph would help? Or perhaps a sentence or two aimed at someone for whom this article is their first exposure to your site/concepts?

vacri 9y ago

I think the title is phrased badly. You wouldn't say "most businesses don't work", because business is obviously doing just fine. Yet it's true, since most businesses fail in the first few years - 80% by some calculations. And you'd be laughed out of the room if you used this statistic to argue that businesses aren't working.