4 ms·

I one quadrupled my capital with a betting bot running a martingale strategy. Then I made it run overnight and lost all the funds. Turns out there aren't any be

I one quadrupled my capital with a betting bot running a martingale strategy. Then I made it run overnight and lost all the funds. Turns out there aren't any betting strategies that can last over the long run. With a martingale strategy the chances of losing are miniscule but if you play 10,000 rounds at a 0.01% of losing, you're going to lose once. And that's when you lose all your capital.

anfractuosity 9y ago
This is the kind of thing I meant: http://automatingbetfair.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/betfair-bots-and-opportunity-out-there.html http://automatingbetfair.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/betfair-bots...
ssanders82 9y ago
I don't think the fact that your coin-flip martingale strategy didn't work is evidence that "there aren't any betting strategies that can last over the long run".
- amingilani 9y ago
  No, but over the long run, no betting system can guarantee a positive return. If you run enough simulations, you will inevitably lose. The Wizard of Odds[1] did a great piece on this and it's definitely worth a read. Also, if you believe to have a betting system that does work, VegasClick[2] runs a $30k wager against your $3k if your system can survive at least 11 of 20 200,000 round games. It's easy money. [1]: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ [2]: http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge
  - PavleMiha 9y ago
    I think the other posters mean sports betting and other betting markets when they say "betting" not just casino games where, as you rightly say, there's no way of making money. In sports betting markets it is theoretically possible to make money, but very hard.
    - anfractuosity 9y ago
      Yeah I was thinking of sports betting, however I guess even in casinos you can do card counting or apply the laws of physics to roulette wheels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Doyne_Farmer#Beating_roulette https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Doyne_Farmer#Beating_roulet... (although the roulette example could be classed as cheating ;)

anfractuosity 9y ago

This is the kind of thing I meant: http://automatingbetfair.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/betfair-bots-and-opportunity-out-there.html http://automatingbetfair.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/betfair-bots...

ssanders82 9y ago

I don't think the fact that your coin-flip martingale strategy didn't work is evidence that "there aren't any betting strategies that can last over the long run".

amingilani 9y ago
No, but over the long run, no betting system can guarantee a positive return. If you run enough simulations, you will inevitably lose. The Wizard of Odds[1] did a great piece on this and it's definitely worth a read. Also, if you believe to have a betting system that does work, VegasClick[2] runs a $30k wager against your $3k if your system can survive at least 11 of 20 200,000 round games. It's easy money. [1]: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ [2]: http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge
- PavleMiha 9y ago
  I think the other posters mean sports betting and other betting markets when they say "betting" not just casino games where, as you rightly say, there's no way of making money. In sports betting markets it is theoretically possible to make money, but very hard.
  - anfractuosity 9y ago
    Yeah I was thinking of sports betting, however I guess even in casinos you can do card counting or apply the laws of physics to roulette wheels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Doyne_Farmer#Beating_roulette https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Doyne_Farmer#Beating_roulet... (although the roulette example could be classed as cheating ;)