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In my opinion, a lot of this rhetoric is being repeated. But the points raised by the original memo require a bit of perhaps subtle mathematics to understand.
by doubleshame 9y ago
In my opinion, a lot of this rhetoric is being repeated. But the points raised by the original memo require a bit of perhaps subtle mathematics to understand.
This is an attempt at curating a list of relevant math and rationality articles, so that we can at least speak the same language when talking about this.
Start here: I personally view it as the base model of all beliefs that we can hold. It talks about some kinds of things that we can know and how much we should have confidence in what we know.
Bayes theorem: http://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule_guide http://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule_guide
- doubleshame 9y agoAppreciate that this notion exists: Confidence intervals https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval.html https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval.html Let's say I give you a biased coin, but don't tell you what the bias is. You make 10 flips and record what you see. What can you tell about the coin and how much confidence can you have in your assertions?
- doubleshame 9y agoAnother Bayes theorem. This is IMO the most important idea so I am including this alternate text as well. http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes/ http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes/
- doubleshame 9y ago"Magic is fueled by belief and willpower" "Magic that works whether or not you believe in it" What is belief and what is reality. An existential notion of truth that I subscribe to. http://yudkowsky.net/rational/the-simple-truth/ http://yudkowsky.net/rational/the-simple-truth/
- doubleshame 9y ago(Advanced) Bayes nets. How to understand the relation between different assertions i.e. if you have some degree of confidence in some assertions, what can you say about the others? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network