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Ask HN: What are the possible outcomes of bombing Guam?
Seems there are a lot of gamers and military aficionados on HN.. using this tool: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ and other historical facts, how do you think this could be played out if you were a top General in the Pentagon.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- warrenm 9y agoPretty interesting discussion going on over on /r/neutralpolitics: https://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/6sp6x0/what_strategic_benefits_would_north_korea_gain/ https://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/6sp6x0/wha...
- AnimalMuppet 9y agoWell, first of all, either they hit or they miss. I wouldn't take hitting as a certainty. If they miss, well, the US has more options. They don't have to immediately destroy NK - not that I think that would stop a hothead like Trump. What I'd do, from the US side: Destroy their nuclear facilities, and anything associated with it, plus decapitation strikes. What I'd expect them to do in response: Immediately begin attacking South Korea. What I'd do in response to that: Attack every military facility I know of in NK, and keep attacking them until they're non-operational. Also unleash everything available to help SK at the front. What I'd expect them to do in response: Unleash everything they have. I'd expect to win, and totally destroy the government and military of NK - at the price of a million or more NK dead, maybe that many SK dead, and perhaps 10,000 US dead. It's a horrific price, but I don't see where along the way there's a place where it can stop. As soon as NK launches against Guam, it's game on, and nobody can back down. I wish had a better answer for that... But there's a subtle distinction that needs to be made here. You asked about NK bombing Guam. In fact, NK has announced plans to fire a test missile to 40 km away from Guam (going over Japan on the way). If they do, that is not the same as bombing Guam. In that case, first, I would try to shoot it down when it goes over Japan, and then again on approach to Guam. Second, I would announce, and carry out, an ICBM test launch that landed 40 km off of North Korea. My rationale is this: NK is sending a clear, provocative message. They don't care about violating norms of territorial integrity, only about actual military action. Fine. Then as they do, it will be done to them - equal provocation in return, with an equal message.