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The technology for autonomous cars does exist. Latest data from Waymo is that they can drive 5.000 miles on average before disengagement (https://medium.com/way

by kjksf 9y ago

The technology for autonomous cars does exist. Latest data from Waymo is that they can drive 5.000 miles on average before disengagement (https://medium.com/waymo/accelerating-the-pace-of-learning-36f6bc2ee1d5 https://medium.com/waymo/accelerating-the-pace-of-learning-3...). They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. As far as bikes go: no one is complaining about them. It's all in your mind. As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company).

Karrot_Kream 9y ago
> They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. If you've ever implemented anything in your life, you should know that completely new solutions often come with unexpected failure modes. Very well thought out solutions often address all of these, but more often than not we have to address failure modes through iteration. Unfortunately, physical infrastructure isn't like software: iteration isn't nearly as cheap or fast. > As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And how will that scale? When SF's streets are filled grid-to-grid with vehicles that can only fit 5 people at once (and will probably only accept 4 due to customer sentiment), what will we do then? Also, care to share your calculations? > And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company). A bus driver is far from the main cost of a bus service. Many buses in SF/Berkeley are already electric or hybrid, so it's not even fuel anymore. Buses are expensive because they are large vehicles and because maintaining them is expensive. Autonomous driving tech won't make a bus cheaper to purchase or maintain.

by kjksf 9y ago

Karrot_Kream 9y ago

> They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. If you've ever implemented anything in your life, you should know that completely new solutions often come with unexpected failure modes. Very well thought out solutions often address all of these, but more often than not we have to address failure modes through iteration. Unfortunately, physical infrastructure isn't like software: iteration isn't nearly as cheap or fast. > As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And how will that scale? When SF's streets are filled grid-to-grid with vehicles that can only fit 5 people at once (and will probably only accept 4 due to customer sentiment), what will we do then? Also, care to share your calculations? > And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company). A bus driver is far from the main cost of a bus service. Many buses in SF/Berkeley are already electric or hybrid, so it's not even fuel anymore. Buses are expensive because they are large vehicles and because maintaining them is expensive. Autonomous driving tech won't make a bus cheaper to purchase or maintain.