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Yeah I don't understand this enthusiasm for autonomous cars. It seems like the HN-crowd seems to wax enthusiasm for solutions that don't yet exist, and absolute

Yeah I don't understand this enthusiasm for autonomous cars. It seems like the HN-crowd seems to wax enthusiasm for solutions that don't yet exist, and absolutely reject alternatives (bikes, public transit) that already exist and work. With new solutions comes new problems, and I can see congestion being a big one. I guess it's not sexy to implement the tried-and-true, but it's a lot more sexy to dream.

kjksf 9y ago
The technology for autonomous cars does exist. Latest data from Waymo is that they can drive 5.000 miles on average before disengagement (https://medium.com/waymo/accelerating-the-pace-of-learning-36f6bc2ee1d5 https://medium.com/waymo/accelerating-the-pace-of-learning-3...). They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. As far as bikes go: no one is complaining about them. It's all in your mind. As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company).
- Karrot_Kream 9y ago
  > They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. If you've ever implemented anything in your life, you should know that completely new solutions often come with unexpected failure modes. Very well thought out solutions often address all of these, but more often than not we have to address failure modes through iteration. Unfortunately, physical infrastructure isn't like software: iteration isn't nearly as cheap or fast. > As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And how will that scale? When SF's streets are filled grid-to-grid with vehicles that can only fit 5 people at once (and will probably only accept 4 due to customer sentiment), what will we do then? Also, care to share your calculations? > And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company). A bus driver is far from the main cost of a bus service. Many buses in SF/Berkeley are already electric or hybrid, so it's not even fuel anymore. Buses are expensive because they are large vehicles and because maintaining them is expensive. Autonomous driving tech won't make a bus cheaper to purchase or maintain.
skybrian 9y ago
"Absolutely reject" seems a bit much. The same people can be enthusiasts for driverless cars and also take public transit and/or biking. Also, it's easy to see how driverless cars could be used along with public transit or biking for different parts of a trip.
- PeanutCurry 9y ago
  I'd argue that the most useful aspect of driverless cars is going to be as short-range taxis. I live in San Diego. We're not LA but we're not tiny. I'd take the trolley basically everywhere if I could but that would increase my ride time by somewhere around an hour and a half. The VAST majority of that time isn't waiting for the trolley. It's sitting on a bus and waiting for it to take me to the trolley station which is only two miles away from where I live. If I drive to the trolley station, my A-to-B ride time becomes about fourty minutes total. If I could just buy a bus pass that included autonomous pickup that shuttled me quickly to the trolley station then I would give up my car in a heartbeat.
honestoHeminway 9y ago
The tried and true has no possibility to transform society. Carriage gets from A to B. Car gets from A to B. More of the same, should have stayed wit the eco-friendly solution back then, shouldnt we? And yet, its not the same society we would have had.

kjksf 9y ago

The technology for autonomous cars does exist. Latest data from Waymo is that they can drive 5.000 miles on average before disengagement (https://medium.com/waymo/accelerating-the-pace-of-learning-36f6bc2ee1d5 https://medium.com/waymo/accelerating-the-pace-of-learning-3...). They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. As far as bikes go: no one is complaining about them. It's all in your mind. As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company).

Karrot_Kream 9y ago
> They are not ready to be widely deployed but are close, which is why we're talking about them. It's an exciting technology with great potential impact on the future and a lot of that impact is positive. If you've ever implemented anything in your life, you should know that completely new solutions often come with unexpected failure modes. Very well thought out solutions often address all of these, but more often than not we have to address failure modes through iteration. Unfortunately, physical infrastructure isn't like software: iteration isn't nearly as cheap or fast. > As far as public transit: autonomous cars will improve it. By my calculations, autonomous car will be cheaper, unsubsidized, than a $2.50 bus ride subsidized by the city from our taxes (SF has ~$1 billion budget to fund money-loosing bart, buses etc.). And how will that scale? When SF's streets are filled grid-to-grid with vehicles that can only fit 5 people at once (and will probably only accept 4 due to customer sentiment), what will we do then? Also, care to share your calculations? > And that's cars. Things will be even cheaper if we get buses to be autonomous. At which point it's likely bus service will be cheaper and provided by a commercial company (the only reason public transport is government owned is because it looses money, so it wouldn't exist as private company). A bus driver is far from the main cost of a bus service. Many buses in SF/Berkeley are already electric or hybrid, so it's not even fuel anymore. Buses are expensive because they are large vehicles and because maintaining them is expensive. Autonomous driving tech won't make a bus cheaper to purchase or maintain.

skybrian 9y ago

"Absolutely reject" seems a bit much. The same people can be enthusiasts for driverless cars and also take public transit and/or biking. Also, it's easy to see how driverless cars could be used along with public transit or biking for different parts of a trip.

PeanutCurry 9y ago
I'd argue that the most useful aspect of driverless cars is going to be as short-range taxis. I live in San Diego. We're not LA but we're not tiny. I'd take the trolley basically everywhere if I could but that would increase my ride time by somewhere around an hour and a half. The VAST majority of that time isn't waiting for the trolley. It's sitting on a bus and waiting for it to take me to the trolley station which is only two miles away from where I live. If I drive to the trolley station, my A-to-B ride time becomes about fourty minutes total. If I could just buy a bus pass that included autonomous pickup that shuttled me quickly to the trolley station then I would give up my car in a heartbeat.

honestoHeminway 9y ago

The tried and true has no possibility to transform society. Carriage gets from A to B. Car gets from A to B. More of the same, should have stayed wit the eco-friendly solution back then, shouldnt we? And yet, its not the same society we would have had.