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But isn't valuing a penny stock with no business activity really easy?

by conistonwater 9y ago

wmf 9y ago
Oh BTW there are people manipulating this stock behind the scenes. Is it still easy to predict the price?
- logfromblammo 9y ago
  Predicting the price is only an intermediate step to answering the question "How much should I invest in this stock?" In the case of the penny stock with no business activity, you can usually just skip the valuation step and go straight to "invest nothing". There are exceptions, of course, but all of them involve you having some information not generally available to the public.
  - wmf 9y ago
    Which leads to a conclusion of "never invest in crypto-anything" which works fine for me but is not what many people want to hear.
    - logfromblammo 9y ago
      Exactly. Even if I were a gambler, I would prefer by far Blackjack or Roulette to Poker. I'd rather play against the randomization of the equipment than directly pit my skill against a bunch of people that I know are all far better at playing that game than I am. I'll just continue to invest in robot-managed index funds, thanks. If you can't use the cryptocurrency effectively without buying in early, there is a fundamental problem with it, and the people who bought in early probably should not have done so. So the obvious conclusion is to not buy in early. Those stories I keep hearing about people who made fortunes off of Bitcoin are fun and inspiring, but there is no way I would have been any of those people, because I didn't have the extra disposable cash to invest in Bitcoin at the times when it would have been most advantageous to do so, and it has never matched my risk profile since 2009. If it had been invented in 2000, yeah, I could have been a Bitcoin millionaire. But that's not how it worked out. Those grapes aren't sour; I just couldn't reach them. And right now, this very instant, the next big thing could be staring me right in the face, and I would still choose not to invest in it, because I don't have enough investment money left after the sure things, boring but prudent choices, and dubious but exciting possibilities to put a single penny into moon-jumping unicorns that fart nuclear-powered rainbows. I'd rather have 98% confidence of retiring at 65 than make a gamble between between retiring two years from now and never retiring at all. So cryptocoins can be the playground of the young and foolish, the old and treacherous, and the financial geniuses.

But isn't valuing a penny stock with no business activity really easy?

wmf 9y ago

Oh BTW there are people manipulating this stock behind the scenes. Is it still easy to predict the price?

logfromblammo 9y ago
Predicting the price is only an intermediate step to answering the question "How much should I invest in this stock?" In the case of the penny stock with no business activity, you can usually just skip the valuation step and go straight to "invest nothing". There are exceptions, of course, but all of them involve you having some information not generally available to the public.
- wmf 9y ago
  Which leads to a conclusion of "never invest in crypto-anything" which works fine for me but is not what many people want to hear.
  - logfromblammo 9y ago
    Exactly. Even if I were a gambler, I would prefer by far Blackjack or Roulette to Poker. I'd rather play against the randomization of the equipment than directly pit my skill against a bunch of people that I know are all far better at playing that game than I am. I'll just continue to invest in robot-managed index funds, thanks. If you can't use the cryptocurrency effectively without buying in early, there is a fundamental problem with it, and the people who bought in early probably should not have done so. So the obvious conclusion is to not buy in early. Those stories I keep hearing about people who made fortunes off of Bitcoin are fun and inspiring, but there is no way I would have been any of those people, because I didn't have the extra disposable cash to invest in Bitcoin at the times when it would have been most advantageous to do so, and it has never matched my risk profile since 2009. If it had been invented in 2000, yeah, I could have been a Bitcoin millionaire. But that's not how it worked out. Those grapes aren't sour; I just couldn't reach them. And right now, this very instant, the next big thing could be staring me right in the face, and I would still choose not to invest in it, because I don't have enough investment money left after the sure things, boring but prudent choices, and dubious but exciting possibilities to put a single penny into moon-jumping unicorns that fart nuclear-powered rainbows. I'd rather have 98% confidence of retiring at 65 than make a gamble between between retiring two years from now and never retiring at all. So cryptocoins can be the playground of the young and foolish, the old and treacherous, and the financial geniuses.