4 ms·

A bit of game theory might be useful - https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/1994/5/cj14n1-13.pdf https://object.cato.org/site

by wisty 9y ago

A bit of game theory might be useful - https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/1994/5/cj14n1-13.pdf https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/c... Riots and revolutions are difficult to start because of a number of obstacles: * It is not clear how many sympathizers you have. * Even if you believe you have the numbers, being the first to act may result in you being made an example of by the authorities. It's smarter then to rely on more ambiguous signals. Playing stupid is a good way to do this. The problem is, the people who want to "stick it to the man" are generally young people who still process emotions with their amygdala - they can't keep their ego in check and pretend they don't realize they are contradicting the official doctrine. It's fun to think you can be like Martin Luther, nailing The 95 Theses to the church door. We only hear about Martin Luther because of a quite literal survivor bias. Also, Luther survived because he claimed to not be challenging the Vatican's authority, but simply having a scholarly debate. He was also quite lucky that the secular authorities were lenient (perhaps for political reasons - there were lessor nobles who weren't so keen on the Holy Roman Emperor's authority).

idlewords 9y ago
Since I presume you're a techie, it's funny that you overlook the main reason for Luther's success, which was technological—the invention of the mass-printed pamphlet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_during_the_Reformation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_during_the_Reformat... I would also urge you to resist the lure of game theory in analyzing human behavior. It's a toy model that gives toy insights.
- wisty 9y ago
  Mass communication was also a factor, but probably not one that Luther would have grasped until he was already committed. And he wouldn't have printed any pamphlets if the local authorities executed him immediately. As for game theory being a toy model, every model of human behaviour is a toy model. I'm not sure if game theory is a particularly bad one.
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    I think the conclusion from that argument, which I'm honest-to-god surprised to see 'idlewords making, is that if not Luther, then it would be someone else a month or a year later, because a) the forces that shaped Luther were present in other places, and b) it's the printing press that made the Reformation stick (there were earlier attempts, which failed).
- crocal 9y ago
  Hear, hear!
- raverbashing 9y ago
  Interesting info about the Propaganda Game theory is more advanced than the prisioner's dillema, but unfortunately that's what's discussed in 99.99% of examples. And yes, it is a toy example.
- DonbunEf7 9y ago
  There is one shining result in mechanism design, a subfield of game theory, called the revelation principle. It says, simply, that if one doesn't like how the game is played, one may design the game that they want folks to play, and offer incentives accordingly, and people will play the game according to the incentives. While this may sound like academic bullshit, it is the closest thing you'll find to a solid philosophical foundation for why proof-of-work or proof-of-stake systems should be expected to work in practice as well as they do.

by wisty 9y ago

idlewords 9y ago

Since I presume you're a techie, it's funny that you overlook the main reason for Luther's success, which was technological—the invention of the mass-printed pamphlet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_during_the_Reformation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_during_the_Reformat... I would also urge you to resist the lure of game theory in analyzing human behavior. It's a toy model that gives toy insights.

wisty 9y ago
Mass communication was also a factor, but probably not one that Luther would have grasped until he was already committed. And he wouldn't have printed any pamphlets if the local authorities executed him immediately. As for game theory being a toy model, every model of human behaviour is a toy model. I'm not sure if game theory is a particularly bad one.
- TeMPOraL 9y ago
  I think the conclusion from that argument, which I'm honest-to-god surprised to see 'idlewords making, is that if not Luther, then it would be someone else a month or a year later, because a) the forces that shaped Luther were present in other places, and b) it's the printing press that made the Reformation stick (there were earlier attempts, which failed).
crocal 9y ago
Hear, hear!
raverbashing 9y ago
Interesting info about the Propaganda Game theory is more advanced than the prisioner's dillema, but unfortunately that's what's discussed in 99.99% of examples. And yes, it is a toy example.
DonbunEf7 9y ago
There is one shining result in mechanism design, a subfield of game theory, called the revelation principle. It says, simply, that if one doesn't like how the game is played, one may design the game that they want folks to play, and offer incentives accordingly, and people will play the game according to the incentives. While this may sound like academic bullshit, it is the closest thing you'll find to a solid philosophical foundation for why proof-of-work or proof-of-stake systems should be expected to work in practice as well as they do.