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>> My hypothesis is that Africa over the next two decades will look like India and China the previous two decades. I agree with the basic idea, but Africa is

>> My hypothesis is that Africa over the next two decades will look like India and China the previous two decades. I agree with the basic idea, but Africa is way too over the place for that statement to apply at the level of the continent. Some countries will still be down and out due to their economical and political instability (there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now), and on the other hand I would not be surprised if some countries would outdo the "China" metric and be considered developed first-world economies by then (in fact I would be surprised if it did NOT happen for a handful of them).

Lordarminius 9y ago
> there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now... I am a Nigerian and I think you are wrong. There is a lot of agitation in Nigeria especially from the young people and an imminent collapse of the old order. An Arab Spring like revolution is imminent. There is a bubbling spring of young and hungry talent on the continent there is a definite acknowledgement that things need to change fast. That aside, despite the upbeat tone of the article, investment is still very hard to source in Africa despite the fact that the amounts required by the continents entrepreneurs are really small. Most founders require seed funding in the 10 -20k range. I am trying to solve this problem. Anyone interested in joining forces can pm me.
- Hasknewbie 9y ago
  I wish you're right, but I do think it's going to take more than an Arab Spring type of event. I picked Nigeria as an example because it's such a big economy, yet almost all of the wealth is in the hands of a tiny minority. The country is divided according to religious lines, and there are deeply entrenched local interests, so if there's an uprising it's likely some "old hands" from the current regime will maneuver and place themselves in a more advantageous position, and true reform will not happen. Also it's a huge country population-wise, so to implement any meaningful change the inertia will be immense. (Quick aside: I am realizing I am implicitly using China as a reference for economical improvement, but not India as also mentioned by GP post, simply because some segments of the population in India still live in a horrendous level of poverty, and I think true improvement necessarily implies the elimination of extreme poverty.) To keep the Arab Spring as a point of comparison: it did succeed in Tunisia because the population (1) is educated and connected, and (2) had an homogeneous view of where it wanted to go (politically speaking). This meant that even if not all "pro-regime" forces were cleaned out they still had to take a back seat in the new regime (example: their police forces), and alternative political movements such as the islamists literally abandoned islamism after a few years. In contrast in Egypt it failed IMO because (1) 25 % of the population is illiterate, so is not educated/connected/informed all that much, (2) had differing views, with a major islamist movement in place (that historically had basically grandfather islamist terrorism), and (3) some major "pro-regime" forces (in this case the military) were not reformed/removed and still had all the resources and levers they needed to depose the new government whenever they felt like it. So in the end Egypt returned to military dictature as quickly as it had left it. Again, I would really be happy to be wrong, but right now if a revolution happens, Nigeria is more on the "Egypt" end of the balance than on the "Tunisia" one. If we look at all the revolutions or major reforms that have happened since the 1980s, the successful ones have always happened where civil society was past some education threshold and had a good cohesion regarding its ideological worldview (basically nation-wide support for secular democracy and the rule of law). That was the case from South Korea to Taiwan to South America, so I don't see why it wouldn't apply to Nigeria as well. Note that I'm NOT saying that there are no people educated/informed enough, what I am saying is that because your country is so big and the disparity so large, there are A LOT of people who right now are not informed enough and way too removed from any political discourse to be enrolled in a cohesive reformist movement. That being said my point was specifically for the short time-frame being discussed (within 20 years). I don't think such a huge country can navigate through such deep changes that quickly, but it's very possible that much of the preliminary work (such as getting the majority of the population on the same political page) can be accomplished by then. For example it's possible that because your educated youth is fed up, an anti-corruption advocate or national-level politician will gain significant prominence and start pushing the country in the right direction.
  - stephenhuey 9y ago
    I'm hearing you out, but I grew up in Nigeria and have been hearing lots of stories from friends who are back there working in businesses and forward-thinking foundations, and I'm excited at the prospect that huge percentages of young people will soon overwhelm the status quo with new thinking. I know business alone can't solve all the problems but I'm amazed at the sheer numbers of new startups I've been hearing about: https://www.startupgrind.com/blog/why-lagos-in-nigeria-is-africas-silicon-valley/ https://www.startupgrind.com/blog/why-lagos-in-nigeria-is-af... https://angel.co/nigeria https://angel.co/nigeria https://www.quora.com/Which-Nigerian-tech-startup-will-be-worth-a-billion-dollars-soon https://www.quora.com/Which-Nigerian-tech-startup-will-be-wo... https://techcrunch.com/tag/nigeria/ https://techcrunch.com/tag/nigeria/ http://digitalhealth.com.ng/ http://digitalhealth.com.ng/ I didn't even know till I searched just now that Lagos already has online grocery delivery! It's been quite a few years since I was living there and incredibly hard for me to imagine. :)
- aaron-lebo 9y ago
  180 million people and the largest (and still growing) economy in Africa. Nigeria seems like it could be a giant if it can only get out of its political woes. Isn't separatism/terrorism still a major issue? Does that impact daily life for the average person? My Nigerian friend never spoke of life being unsafe but that the government was corrupt wasn't really a question.
  - Lordarminius 9y ago
    The separatist movement is a political maneuver to (re)gain lost political rights. Nigeria is not dividing in any of our life times. Terrorism is an issue I agree, but it has been confined to a small corner of the northwest for a while now.
    - tormeh 9y ago
      >Nigeria is not dividing in any of our life times "It's Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future" and more relevant: "Peace for our time".
  - majani 9y ago
    Nigeria IS a giant. It's the biggest economy in Africa by nominal GDP. However, it's probably also the most unequal place on earth. The wealth is incredibly concentrated with the oil and political elite, and they have a habit of spending a lot of their money abroad
  - Apocryphon 9y ago
    India has pretty significant terrorist/separatist movements that you almost never hear about, such as the Naxalites, yet they don't seem to be threatening the Indian state as a whole. If such movements are peripheral to Nigeria then maybe they would be as much as a minor factor to development.
- nine_k 9y ago
  Can't help but note that Arab Spring was an economic disaster for most countries involved. Be careful with what you wish for.
  - Lordarminius 9y ago
    You have a point there I admit.
- zackya89 9y ago
  pm'ed you, also a software developer who increasingly been thinking of doing something in Africa
  - singularity2001 9y ago
    how can you pm here? I want to enter Africa too!
    - Lordarminius 9y ago
      email in my profile.

Lordarminius 9y ago

> there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now... I am a Nigerian and I think you are wrong. There is a lot of agitation in Nigeria especially from the young people and an imminent collapse of the old order. An Arab Spring like revolution is imminent. There is a bubbling spring of young and hungry talent on the continent there is a definite acknowledgement that things need to change fast. That aside, despite the upbeat tone of the article, investment is still very hard to source in Africa despite the fact that the amounts required by the continents entrepreneurs are really small. Most founders require seed funding in the 10 -20k range. I am trying to solve this problem. Anyone interested in joining forces can pm me.

Hasknewbie 9y ago
I wish you're right, but I do think it's going to take more than an Arab Spring type of event. I picked Nigeria as an example because it's such a big economy, yet almost all of the wealth is in the hands of a tiny minority. The country is divided according to religious lines, and there are deeply entrenched local interests, so if there's an uprising it's likely some "old hands" from the current regime will maneuver and place themselves in a more advantageous position, and true reform will not happen. Also it's a huge country population-wise, so to implement any meaningful change the inertia will be immense. (Quick aside: I am realizing I am implicitly using China as a reference for economical improvement, but not India as also mentioned by GP post, simply because some segments of the population in India still live in a horrendous level of poverty, and I think true improvement necessarily implies the elimination of extreme poverty.) To keep the Arab Spring as a point of comparison: it did succeed in Tunisia because the population (1) is educated and connected, and (2) had an homogeneous view of where it wanted to go (politically speaking). This meant that even if not all "pro-regime" forces were cleaned out they still had to take a back seat in the new regime (example: their police forces), and alternative political movements such as the islamists literally abandoned islamism after a few years. In contrast in Egypt it failed IMO because (1) 25 % of the population is illiterate, so is not educated/connected/informed all that much, (2) had differing views, with a major islamist movement in place (that historically had basically grandfather islamist terrorism), and (3) some major "pro-regime" forces (in this case the military) were not reformed/removed and still had all the resources and levers they needed to depose the new government whenever they felt like it. So in the end Egypt returned to military dictature as quickly as it had left it. Again, I would really be happy to be wrong, but right now if a revolution happens, Nigeria is more on the "Egypt" end of the balance than on the "Tunisia" one. If we look at all the revolutions or major reforms that have happened since the 1980s, the successful ones have always happened where civil society was past some education threshold and had a good cohesion regarding its ideological worldview (basically nation-wide support for secular democracy and the rule of law). That was the case from South Korea to Taiwan to South America, so I don't see why it wouldn't apply to Nigeria as well. Note that I'm NOT saying that there are no people educated/informed enough, what I am saying is that because your country is so big and the disparity so large, there are A LOT of people who right now are not informed enough and way too removed from any political discourse to be enrolled in a cohesive reformist movement. That being said my point was specifically for the short time-frame being discussed (within 20 years). I don't think such a huge country can navigate through such deep changes that quickly, but it's very possible that much of the preliminary work (such as getting the majority of the population on the same political page) can be accomplished by then. For example it's possible that because your educated youth is fed up, an anti-corruption advocate or national-level politician will gain significant prominence and start pushing the country in the right direction.
- stephenhuey 9y ago
  I'm hearing you out, but I grew up in Nigeria and have been hearing lots of stories from friends who are back there working in businesses and forward-thinking foundations, and I'm excited at the prospect that huge percentages of young people will soon overwhelm the status quo with new thinking. I know business alone can't solve all the problems but I'm amazed at the sheer numbers of new startups I've been hearing about: https://www.startupgrind.com/blog/why-lagos-in-nigeria-is-africas-silicon-valley/ https://www.startupgrind.com/blog/why-lagos-in-nigeria-is-af... https://angel.co/nigeria https://angel.co/nigeria https://www.quora.com/Which-Nigerian-tech-startup-will-be-worth-a-billion-dollars-soon https://www.quora.com/Which-Nigerian-tech-startup-will-be-wo... https://techcrunch.com/tag/nigeria/ https://techcrunch.com/tag/nigeria/ http://digitalhealth.com.ng/ http://digitalhealth.com.ng/ I didn't even know till I searched just now that Lagos already has online grocery delivery! It's been quite a few years since I was living there and incredibly hard for me to imagine. :)
aaron-lebo 9y ago
180 million people and the largest (and still growing) economy in Africa. Nigeria seems like it could be a giant if it can only get out of its political woes. Isn't separatism/terrorism still a major issue? Does that impact daily life for the average person? My Nigerian friend never spoke of life being unsafe but that the government was corrupt wasn't really a question.
- Lordarminius 9y ago
  The separatist movement is a political maneuver to (re)gain lost political rights. Nigeria is not dividing in any of our life times. Terrorism is an issue I agree, but it has been confined to a small corner of the northwest for a while now.
  - tormeh 9y ago
    >Nigeria is not dividing in any of our life times "It's Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future" and more relevant: "Peace for our time".
- majani 9y ago
  Nigeria IS a giant. It's the biggest economy in Africa by nominal GDP. However, it's probably also the most unequal place on earth. The wealth is incredibly concentrated with the oil and political elite, and they have a habit of spending a lot of their money abroad
- Apocryphon 9y ago
  India has pretty significant terrorist/separatist movements that you almost never hear about, such as the Naxalites, yet they don't seem to be threatening the Indian state as a whole. If such movements are peripheral to Nigeria then maybe they would be as much as a minor factor to development.
nine_k 9y ago
Can't help but note that Arab Spring was an economic disaster for most countries involved. Be careful with what you wish for.
- Lordarminius 9y ago
  You have a point there I admit.
zackya89 9y ago
pm'ed you, also a software developer who increasingly been thinking of doing something in Africa
- singularity2001 9y ago
  how can you pm here? I want to enter Africa too!
  - Lordarminius 9y ago
    email in my profile.