5 ms·

Sounds like you're assuming level 4 merely means parity or better with human error. Lots of problems with that. For instance if it's Google's negligent bug that

Sounds like you're assuming level 4 merely means parity or better with human error. Lots of problems with that. For instance if it's Google's negligent bug that kills the family of 4 instead of a driver, Google gets sued. Google has much deeper pockets than the driver who would typically declare bankruptcy, effectively capping the damages. No real cap for Google, every time. So that explodes the cost of autonomous vehicles. And then there's the matter of potential criminal liability in the case of gross negligence. So there's going to be a much higher bar for transitioning to level 4. Also, while there may be fewer of some types of accidents, there will be lawsuits for a potentially very large set of other types that never used to get litigated. For example today when a driver causes their own accident, nobody gets sued.

zjaffee 9y ago
Google however does have the ability to hand over the cost of insuring such a system to the consumer, so even at current accident rates the cost is around 100 dollars a month per car using such a system (driving 12000 miles in a year). This equates to something like a cent per mile. So let's say they want incredibly high quality insurance, charging an extra 5 cents per mile won't make a difference in the scheme of things should they be able to get the overall cost of commuting 15 miles (the average American commute in one direction), to something under 5 dollars.
- abalone 9y ago
  This aspect of insurance is widely misunderstood. First of all an extra 4 cents/mile just for insurance is really expensive. But wrongful death and personal injury lawsuits can result in very large judgements, especially when we get to punitive damages for a large corporation. Individual offenders regularly go bankrupt. It may be wishful thinking that this can be easily solved with "insurance". There is also the criminal negligence aspect to consider.
  - spikels 9y ago
    4 cents/mile is roughly in line with rates for traditional auto insurance today. And as these rapid improvements are likely to continue, these costs will quickly come down. Sure you can imagine some class action / criminal legal disaster but the auto industry has survived repeated scandals. Corporate criminal negligence is extremely rare. In five or ten years this technology could be saving 100,000 lives every year. I hope we are not so risk adverse that these benefits are needlessly delayed. http://www.insurance.com/auto-insurance/auto-insurance-basics/pay-per-mile-auto-insurance.aspx http://www.insurance.com/auto-insurance/auto-insurance-basic...
Retric 9y ago
Medical errors kill on the order of 700 people per day in the US (high error bars on that number though). And yes, insurance is a major cost in the medical field, but even large scale negligent deaths are regularly dealt with by the US legal system. Yes, anyone putting out such a system is going to get sued, but so does every car company that exists today. It's just the cost of doing business and ultimately just get's passed on to consumers.
- abalone 9y ago
  You're correct. The question is what is the cost passed on to consumers. If it is something on the order of the cost of medical malpractice insurance and average settlements, well, wow. That would make AV prohibitively expensive. More likely the bar for level 4 will just be significantly higher than parity with human error, if only for liability reasons.
  - Retric 9y ago
    "In 2010, there were 1.1 fatal crashes per 100 million truck miles" https://www.truckdrivingjobs.com/faq/truck-driving-accidents.html https://www.truckdrivingjobs.com/faq/truck-driving-accidents... Truckers make ~27c/mile. So, at similar rate to human drivers that's ~24* million dollars per fatal crash in saved wages. Plus presumably higher truck utilization and lower management costs etc. Don't forget the driver is often not at fault and automated trucks should have plenty of footage of accidents to demonstrate who was at fault. So it's a fraction of both fatal and non fatal accidents, with non fatal accidents generally having lower associated costs. Also, most importantly it's only the truck involved in many accidents associated with bad weather and more generally the driver's medical bills etc do not need to be covered if there is no driver. Further, technology is unlikely to degrade over time so they just need a profitable starting point. Also, if the self drive button cost ~25c / mile there are plenty of times I would hit it. *Granted, there will be labor costs linked with automated trucks, but a 95% savings seems likely.
    - abalone 9y ago
      > if the self drive button cost ~25c / mile there are plenty of times I would hit it 25c/mile just for the insurance surcharge, you mean? Sounds like we're in agreement that mere parity with human error would be expensive from a liability perspective.
FullMtlAlcoholc 9y ago
Based on their own reporting, hasn't Waymo been safer than the average driver for a few years now?

zjaffee 9y ago

Google however does have the ability to hand over the cost of insuring such a system to the consumer, so even at current accident rates the cost is around 100 dollars a month per car using such a system (driving 12000 miles in a year). This equates to something like a cent per mile. So let's say they want incredibly high quality insurance, charging an extra 5 cents per mile won't make a difference in the scheme of things should they be able to get the overall cost of commuting 15 miles (the average American commute in one direction), to something under 5 dollars.

abalone 9y ago
This aspect of insurance is widely misunderstood. First of all an extra 4 cents/mile just for insurance is really expensive. But wrongful death and personal injury lawsuits can result in very large judgements, especially when we get to punitive damages for a large corporation. Individual offenders regularly go bankrupt. It may be wishful thinking that this can be easily solved with "insurance". There is also the criminal negligence aspect to consider.
- spikels 9y ago
  4 cents/mile is roughly in line with rates for traditional auto insurance today. And as these rapid improvements are likely to continue, these costs will quickly come down. Sure you can imagine some class action / criminal legal disaster but the auto industry has survived repeated scandals. Corporate criminal negligence is extremely rare. In five or ten years this technology could be saving 100,000 lives every year. I hope we are not so risk adverse that these benefits are needlessly delayed. http://www.insurance.com/auto-insurance/auto-insurance-basics/pay-per-mile-auto-insurance.aspx http://www.insurance.com/auto-insurance/auto-insurance-basic...

Retric 9y ago

Medical errors kill on the order of 700 people per day in the US (high error bars on that number though). And yes, insurance is a major cost in the medical field, but even large scale negligent deaths are regularly dealt with by the US legal system. Yes, anyone putting out such a system is going to get sued, but so does every car company that exists today. It's just the cost of doing business and ultimately just get's passed on to consumers.

abalone 9y ago
You're correct. The question is what is the cost passed on to consumers. If it is something on the order of the cost of medical malpractice insurance and average settlements, well, wow. That would make AV prohibitively expensive. More likely the bar for level 4 will just be significantly higher than parity with human error, if only for liability reasons.
- Retric 9y ago
  "In 2010, there were 1.1 fatal crashes per 100 million truck miles" https://www.truckdrivingjobs.com/faq/truck-driving-accidents.html https://www.truckdrivingjobs.com/faq/truck-driving-accidents... Truckers make ~27c/mile. So, at similar rate to human drivers that's ~24* million dollars per fatal crash in saved wages. Plus presumably higher truck utilization and lower management costs etc. Don't forget the driver is often not at fault and automated trucks should have plenty of footage of accidents to demonstrate who was at fault. So it's a fraction of both fatal and non fatal accidents, with non fatal accidents generally having lower associated costs. Also, most importantly it's only the truck involved in many accidents associated with bad weather and more generally the driver's medical bills etc do not need to be covered if there is no driver. Further, technology is unlikely to degrade over time so they just need a profitable starting point. Also, if the self drive button cost ~25c / mile there are plenty of times I would hit it. *Granted, there will be labor costs linked with automated trucks, but a 95% savings seems likely.
  - abalone 9y ago
    > if the self drive button cost ~25c / mile there are plenty of times I would hit it 25c/mile just for the insurance surcharge, you mean? Sounds like we're in agreement that mere parity with human error would be expensive from a liability perspective.

FullMtlAlcoholc 9y ago

Based on their own reporting, hasn't Waymo been safer than the average driver for a few years now?