8 ms·

I'm a very happy investor in Ensibuuko, mentioned in the article above. My hypothesis is that Africa over the next two decades will look like India and China t

by pkaler 9y ago

I'm a very happy investor in Ensibuuko, mentioned in the article above. My hypothesis is that Africa over the next two decades will look like India and China the previous two decades. There will be a large Alibaba-like company that emerges from Africa.

aaron-lebo 9y ago
I hope that company or those companies are truly African and not some neocolonial abomination essentially owned by foreign investment. The excitement of Africa is the chance at something new - why not something local, sustainable, and not prey to the walled gardens and greed of the West? The idea of something uniquely African is far more exciting than SV Tech: A Foreign Adventure.
- pinky1417 9y ago
  Some flavor of neo-colonialism is possible, but I'd bet the biggest threat to African development comes from bad governance rather than the outside. Africans have ingenuity and local knowledge. The developed world has cash and business know-how. So long as corrupt government officials can be avoided, there's a chance that there can be a symbiotic relationship.
- tormeh 9y ago
  That's how China and India got their growth. They didn't bootstrap. Taking foreign investment is not some kind of sin against Che Guevara, but simply the best way for a country with cheap labor and visible growth potential to get richer.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
indescions_2017 9y ago
Just curious how you sourced your Ensibukko investment. AngelList? Or direct relationship with the company? And I agree, Africa is hot hot hot ;)
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- Lordarminius 9y ago
  > Just curious how you sourced your Ensibukko investment.... I'd like to know the answer to this too.
  - akinsawyerr 9y ago
    I have been working for the last 5 years to help investors access "proprietary" deal flow. I am from Nigeria but live stateside. I launched this recently to help with the discovery problem diasporavc.com FYI: Ensibukko is a company I like very much
- pkaler 9y ago
  > Just curious how you sourced your Ensibukko investment. AngelList? Or direct relationship with the company? Like all good investors, I know people. :) Investors will feed you crap about being value-add, experience, help with sales, help with hiring, etc, etc. But good investors know people and bad investors don’t know people. They call it “proprietary deal flow”, but it just means that they know people.
Hasknewbie 9y ago
>> My hypothesis is that Africa over the next two decades will look like India and China the previous two decades. I agree with the basic idea, but Africa is way too over the place for that statement to apply at the level of the continent. Some countries will still be down and out due to their economical and political instability (there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now), and on the other hand I would not be surprised if some countries would outdo the "China" metric and be considered developed first-world economies by then (in fact I would be surprised if it did NOT happen for a handful of them).
- Lordarminius 9y ago
  > there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now... I am a Nigerian and I think you are wrong. There is a lot of agitation in Nigeria especially from the young people and an imminent collapse of the old order. An Arab Spring like revolution is imminent. There is a bubbling spring of young and hungry talent on the continent there is a definite acknowledgement that things need to change fast. That aside, despite the upbeat tone of the article, investment is still very hard to source in Africa despite the fact that the amounts required by the continents entrepreneurs are really small. Most founders require seed funding in the 10 -20k range. I am trying to solve this problem. Anyone interested in joining forces can pm me.
  - Hasknewbie 9y ago
    I wish you're right, but I do think it's going to take more than an Arab Spring type of event. I picked Nigeria as an example because it's such a big economy, yet almost all of the wealth is in the hands of a tiny minority. The country is divided according to religious lines, and there are deeply entrenched local interests, so if there's an uprising it's likely some "old hands" from the current regime will maneuver and place themselves in a more advantageous position, and true reform will not happen. Also it's a huge country population-wise, so to implement any meaningful change the inertia will be immense. (Quick aside: I am realizing I am implicitly using China as a reference for economical improvement, but not India as also mentioned by GP post, simply because some segments of the population in India still live in a horrendous level of poverty, and I think true improvement necessarily implies the elimination of extreme poverty.) To keep the Arab Spring as a point of comparison: it did succeed in Tunisia because the population (1) is educated and connected, and (2) had an homogeneous view of where it wanted to go (politically speaking). This meant that even if not all "pro-regime" forces were cleaned out they still had to take a back seat in the new regime (example: their police forces), and alternative political movements such as the islamists literally abandoned islamism after a few years. In contrast in Egypt it failed IMO because (1) 25 % of the population is illiterate, so is not educated/connected/informed all that much, (2) had differing views, with a major islamist movement in place (that historically had basically grandfather islamist terrorism), and (3) some major "pro-regime" forces (in this case the military) were not reformed/removed and still had all the resources and levers they needed to depose the new government whenever they felt like it. So in the end Egypt returned to military dictature as quickly as it had left it. Again, I would really be happy to be wrong, but right now if a revolution happens, Nigeria is more on the "Egypt" end of the balance than on the "Tunisia" one. If we look at all the revolutions or major reforms that have happened since the 1980s, the successful ones have always happened where civil society was past some education threshold and had a good cohesion regarding its ideological worldview (basically nation-wide support for secular democracy and the rule of law). That was the case from South Korea to Taiwan to South America, so I don't see why it wouldn't apply to Nigeria as well. Note that I'm NOT saying that there are no people educated/informed enough, what I am saying is that because your country is so big and the disparity so large, there are A LOT of people who right now are not informed enough and way too removed from any political discourse to be enrolled in a cohesive reformist movement. That being said my point was specifically for the short time-frame being discussed (within 20 years). I don't think such a huge country can navigate through such deep changes that quickly, but it's very possible that much of the preliminary work (such as getting the majority of the population on the same political page) can be accomplished by then. For example it's possible that because your educated youth is fed up, an anti-corruption advocate or national-level politician will gain significant prominence and start pushing the country in the right direction.
djb_hackernews 9y ago
I've seen this prediction about Africa for the past 20 years. And it's probably even older than that. It's not a particularly bold one, in my opinion, but it is a flawed one. Africa is not a country, it is a continent. Comparing it to India or China (whose economies haven't really paid off for foreign investors as much as you'd think) is a major flaw. China and India have an incredibly consistent society from corner to corner and well organized governments. Africa on the other hand is a few dozen sovereign countries, without a common culture or language between them. They are constantly at war with each other and within each other. I think in order to extract the full economic potential of Africa you'll need to see unification at levels that put the EU to shame and at least a decade of trusted, non-corrupt, forward looking governance. I think it'll happen, but not for a very, very long time. Until then, follow the Chinese govt investments in Africa and try to tag along.
- michaelchisari 9y ago
  India have an incredibly consistent society from corner to corner and well organized governments. That is literally the first time I have ever heard anyone, Indian or not, describe India that way.
  - dragandj 9y ago
    I've been to India several times, and as a foreigner looking from the outside, I can say that it has much more consistent society than it may look to the Indians. The government, however corrupt, is still way better than what most African countries have.
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      And India is far less fragmented than Africa.
      - Pxtl 9y ago
        They have like a dozen languages in like 5 different scripts. Their advantage is that English is ending up as the common tongue of India, so there's lots of English there.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

by pkaler 9y ago

aaron-lebo 9y ago

I hope that company or those companies are truly African and not some neocolonial abomination essentially owned by foreign investment. The excitement of Africa is the chance at something new - why not something local, sustainable, and not prey to the walled gardens and greed of the West? The idea of something uniquely African is far more exciting than SV Tech: A Foreign Adventure.

pinky1417 9y ago
Some flavor of neo-colonialism is possible, but I'd bet the biggest threat to African development comes from bad governance rather than the outside. Africans have ingenuity and local knowledge. The developed world has cash and business know-how. So long as corrupt government officials can be avoided, there's a chance that there can be a symbiotic relationship.
tormeh 9y ago
That's how China and India got their growth. They didn't bootstrap. Taking foreign investment is not some kind of sin against Che Guevara, but simply the best way for a country with cheap labor and visible growth potential to get richer.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

indescions_2017 9y ago

Just curious how you sourced your Ensibukko investment. AngelList? Or direct relationship with the company? And I agree, Africa is hot hot hot ;)

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
Lordarminius 9y ago
> Just curious how you sourced your Ensibukko investment.... I'd like to know the answer to this too.
- akinsawyerr 9y ago
  I have been working for the last 5 years to help investors access "proprietary" deal flow. I am from Nigeria but live stateside. I launched this recently to help with the discovery problem diasporavc.com FYI: Ensibukko is a company I like very much
pkaler 9y ago
> Just curious how you sourced your Ensibukko investment. AngelList? Or direct relationship with the company? Like all good investors, I know people. :) Investors will feed you crap about being value-add, experience, help with sales, help with hiring, etc, etc. But good investors know people and bad investors don’t know people. They call it “proprietary deal flow”, but it just means that they know people.

Hasknewbie 9y ago

>> My hypothesis is that Africa over the next two decades will look like India and China the previous two decades. I agree with the basic idea, but Africa is way too over the place for that statement to apply at the level of the continent. Some countries will still be down and out due to their economical and political instability (there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now), and on the other hand I would not be surprised if some countries would outdo the "China" metric and be considered developed first-world economies by then (in fact I would be surprised if it did NOT happen for a handful of them).

Lordarminius 9y ago
> there is really nothing in the cards today indicating that Nigeria or Congo, for example, will be significantly better 20 years from now... I am a Nigerian and I think you are wrong. There is a lot of agitation in Nigeria especially from the young people and an imminent collapse of the old order. An Arab Spring like revolution is imminent. There is a bubbling spring of young and hungry talent on the continent there is a definite acknowledgement that things need to change fast. That aside, despite the upbeat tone of the article, investment is still very hard to source in Africa despite the fact that the amounts required by the continents entrepreneurs are really small. Most founders require seed funding in the 10 -20k range. I am trying to solve this problem. Anyone interested in joining forces can pm me.
- Hasknewbie 9y ago
  I wish you're right, but I do think it's going to take more than an Arab Spring type of event. I picked Nigeria as an example because it's such a big economy, yet almost all of the wealth is in the hands of a tiny minority. The country is divided according to religious lines, and there are deeply entrenched local interests, so if there's an uprising it's likely some "old hands" from the current regime will maneuver and place themselves in a more advantageous position, and true reform will not happen. Also it's a huge country population-wise, so to implement any meaningful change the inertia will be immense. (Quick aside: I am realizing I am implicitly using China as a reference for economical improvement, but not India as also mentioned by GP post, simply because some segments of the population in India still live in a horrendous level of poverty, and I think true improvement necessarily implies the elimination of extreme poverty.) To keep the Arab Spring as a point of comparison: it did succeed in Tunisia because the population (1) is educated and connected, and (2) had an homogeneous view of where it wanted to go (politically speaking). This meant that even if not all "pro-regime" forces were cleaned out they still had to take a back seat in the new regime (example: their police forces), and alternative political movements such as the islamists literally abandoned islamism after a few years. In contrast in Egypt it failed IMO because (1) 25 % of the population is illiterate, so is not educated/connected/informed all that much, (2) had differing views, with a major islamist movement in place (that historically had basically grandfather islamist terrorism), and (3) some major "pro-regime" forces (in this case the military) were not reformed/removed and still had all the resources and levers they needed to depose the new government whenever they felt like it. So in the end Egypt returned to military dictature as quickly as it had left it. Again, I would really be happy to be wrong, but right now if a revolution happens, Nigeria is more on the "Egypt" end of the balance than on the "Tunisia" one. If we look at all the revolutions or major reforms that have happened since the 1980s, the successful ones have always happened where civil society was past some education threshold and had a good cohesion regarding its ideological worldview (basically nation-wide support for secular democracy and the rule of law). That was the case from South Korea to Taiwan to South America, so I don't see why it wouldn't apply to Nigeria as well. Note that I'm NOT saying that there are no people educated/informed enough, what I am saying is that because your country is so big and the disparity so large, there are A LOT of people who right now are not informed enough and way too removed from any political discourse to be enrolled in a cohesive reformist movement. That being said my point was specifically for the short time-frame being discussed (within 20 years). I don't think such a huge country can navigate through such deep changes that quickly, but it's very possible that much of the preliminary work (such as getting the majority of the population on the same political page) can be accomplished by then. For example it's possible that because your educated youth is fed up, an anti-corruption advocate or national-level politician will gain significant prominence and start pushing the country in the right direction.

djb_hackernews 9y ago

I've seen this prediction about Africa for the past 20 years. And it's probably even older than that. It's not a particularly bold one, in my opinion, but it is a flawed one. Africa is not a country, it is a continent. Comparing it to India or China (whose economies haven't really paid off for foreign investors as much as you'd think) is a major flaw. China and India have an incredibly consistent society from corner to corner and well organized governments. Africa on the other hand is a few dozen sovereign countries, without a common culture or language between them. They are constantly at war with each other and within each other. I think in order to extract the full economic potential of Africa you'll need to see unification at levels that put the EU to shame and at least a decade of trusted, non-corrupt, forward looking governance. I think it'll happen, but not for a very, very long time. Until then, follow the Chinese govt investments in Africa and try to tag along.

michaelchisari 9y ago
India have an incredibly consistent society from corner to corner and well organized governments. That is literally the first time I have ever heard anyone, Indian or not, describe India that way.
- dragandj 9y ago
  I've been to India several times, and as a foreigner looking from the outside, I can say that it has much more consistent society than it may look to the Indians. The government, however corrupt, is still way better than what most African countries have.
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    And India is far less fragmented than Africa.
    - Pxtl 9y ago
      They have like a dozen languages in like 5 different scripts. Their advantage is that English is ending up as the common tongue of India, so there's lots of English there.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]