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One of my personal indicators that Bitcoin is in a bubble is when Bitcoin articles on hacker news are overrun with people talking about their bitcoin related bu

One of my personal indicators that Bitcoin is in a bubble is when Bitcoin articles on hacker news are overrun with people talking about their bitcoin related businesses, instead of being overrun with skeptics and people saying it's in a "bubble". We have gone from %90 negative a couple years ago on HN to about %50 negative today.

arglebarnacle 9y ago
To be fair, if bitcoin had improving institutional support, adoption, technology, etc., you would observe the same trend in HN discussion about it. That would seem to make it a problematic indicator of a bubble, at least on its own. Of course, if one rules out the possibility that cryptocurrency is going to be a thing, then it's in a bubble by definition any time it's worth more than zero. This appears to be the underlying view of at least some commenters here.
- kuschku 9y ago
  Look at what happened out there. When Bitcoin first hit $1000, many businesses started accepting bitcoin, even some hosters. Tipping bots became popular on forums, there were tutorials for old people on how to use bitcoin on TV and in the newspapers even, etc. Now? I don't know a single business I use that offers bitcoin payments. All of them have removed it again. Bitcoin's actual value as currency has gone down massively. Yes, it is used. A lot, even. But not as day-to-day currency.
  - mrb 9y ago
    "All of them have removed it again" Completely false. Occasionally you will read a newsstory about a merchant who stopped accepting BTC. But, as of today 160k+ merchants accept it, and there was never any large scale event where "all" of them stopped accepting it.
    - rb666 9y ago
      The 160k+ is meaningless when no one is actually using BTC to buy things. Also, not far from the truth anyway: http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bitcoin-2017-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bit...
      - mrb 9y ago
        Your comment is irrelevant to the point being discussed: it's obviously false that "ALL merchants STOPPED accepting bitcoin". Also this Morgan Stanley research note, and the reporting on it, is of laughable quality... 1) They don't release data: "Morgan Stanley, which based its usage analysis on the information, didn’t say which companies are using bitcoin." 2) They extrapolate from an insufficient number of data points: 3 companies in the top500 this year, down from 5 last year, accept Bitcoin. It's like saying Ferrari's market share is dropping because only 3 billionaires bought a Ferrari this year, down from 5 last year. 3) They attribute a quote to the analyst ("The disparity between virtually no merchant acceptance and Bitcoin’s rapid appreciation is striking,") when in fact it was a quote from Overstock CEO: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-merchant-shunning-is-striking-overstocks-medici-president https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-merchant-shunning-is-... 4) They claim Bitcoin's skyrocketing price is one of the causes of the decrease in payments. They present of course no facts to justify this theory, because it's false. In the past, anecdotal data reported by merchants has shown precisely the opposite: customers spend their newfound riches.
        lambdadmitry 9y ago
        But it also makes sense "from the first principles": BTC is wildly deflationary right now, so there is a very strong incentive to hold BTC instead of paying with it. It's a flip side of "sheltering from the inflation" point that is quite popular among BTC enthusiasts. You can't have one without the other.
clarky07 9y ago
I don't think this particular comment section is even close to 50%. Far more negative.

arglebarnacle 9y ago

To be fair, if bitcoin had improving institutional support, adoption, technology, etc., you would observe the same trend in HN discussion about it. That would seem to make it a problematic indicator of a bubble, at least on its own. Of course, if one rules out the possibility that cryptocurrency is going to be a thing, then it's in a bubble by definition any time it's worth more than zero. This appears to be the underlying view of at least some commenters here.

kuschku 9y ago
Look at what happened out there. When Bitcoin first hit $1000, many businesses started accepting bitcoin, even some hosters. Tipping bots became popular on forums, there were tutorials for old people on how to use bitcoin on TV and in the newspapers even, etc. Now? I don't know a single business I use that offers bitcoin payments. All of them have removed it again. Bitcoin's actual value as currency has gone down massively. Yes, it is used. A lot, even. But not as day-to-day currency.
- mrb 9y ago
  "All of them have removed it again" Completely false. Occasionally you will read a newsstory about a merchant who stopped accepting BTC. But, as of today 160k+ merchants accept it, and there was never any large scale event where "all" of them stopped accepting it.
  - rb666 9y ago
    The 160k+ is meaningless when no one is actually using BTC to buy things. Also, not far from the truth anyway: http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bitcoin-2017-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bit...
    - mrb 9y ago
      Your comment is irrelevant to the point being discussed: it's obviously false that "ALL merchants STOPPED accepting bitcoin". Also this Morgan Stanley research note, and the reporting on it, is of laughable quality... 1) They don't release data: "Morgan Stanley, which based its usage analysis on the information, didn’t say which companies are using bitcoin." 2) They extrapolate from an insufficient number of data points: 3 companies in the top500 this year, down from 5 last year, accept Bitcoin. It's like saying Ferrari's market share is dropping because only 3 billionaires bought a Ferrari this year, down from 5 last year. 3) They attribute a quote to the analyst ("The disparity between virtually no merchant acceptance and Bitcoin’s rapid appreciation is striking,") when in fact it was a quote from Overstock CEO: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-merchant-shunning-is-striking-overstocks-medici-president https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-merchant-shunning-is-... 4) They claim Bitcoin's skyrocketing price is one of the causes of the decrease in payments. They present of course no facts to justify this theory, because it's false. In the past, anecdotal data reported by merchants has shown precisely the opposite: customers spend their newfound riches.
      - lambdadmitry 9y ago
        But it also makes sense "from the first principles": BTC is wildly deflationary right now, so there is a very strong incentive to hold BTC instead of paying with it. It's a flip side of "sheltering from the inflation" point that is quite popular among BTC enthusiasts. You can't have one without the other.

clarky07 9y ago

I don't think this particular comment section is even close to 50%. Far more negative.