I agree on the black swan analogy. I think you have to be careful of survivorship bias, reasoning backward from a handful of highly successful survivors. Among

I agree on the black swan analogy. I think you have to be careful of survivorship bias, reasoning backward from a handful of highly successful survivors. Among the startups we see at the Bootstrapper Breakfasts very few are able to prospect for oil and find uranium in their backyard. The ones with a simple plan to build a compelling product, at a price, for a particular set of customers at least have something to tinker with when they start to miss their own expectations.