4 ms·
so "black swan" is a paradox. a black swan is when something that happens outside of the models. it being in YOUR models means it wasn't a black swan for YOU.
by ringaroundthetx 9y ago
so "black swan" is a paradox. a black swan is when something that happens outside of the models. it being in YOUR models means it wasn't a black swan for YOU.
as such there are probably no such things as black swan events. I mean, until there is. Its more like Schrödinger's swan.
- Animats 9y agoFor this kind of event, you can see the pressure building up well in advance. Often, it's not clear what's going to break, but at some point, something has to give. A real "black swan" event was Hurricane Sandy. Flooding of Lower Manhattan was not expected.