Don't put too much weight into his analysis. There are folks who spend their entire professional careers studying the economy and they haven't, on average, ever

Don't put too much weight into his analysis. There are folks who spend their entire professional careers studying the economy and they haven't, on average, ever correctly predicted how the stock market will perform. I don't want to knock on OP's analysis here, but it's important to remember the famous quote (maybe by Keynes?), "The market can remain irrational much longer than you will remain solvent"