4 ms·

By 15% penetration, I don't think I can get a 100x return. I've invested aggressively. Don't think that's possible even @ 1%. I'm probably going to be holding

By 15% penetration, I don't think I can get a 100x return. I've invested aggressively. Don't think that's possible even @ 1%. I'm probably going to be holding some of the assets for a decade. Something like that. Unless the whole thing tanks. Good investment opportunities don't come around vary often. By the next one I should have made the money back (& more). The entire crypto-economy is worth something like 70B. Way smaller than Facebook/Goog/aapl. If you want a sure thing, crypto ain't it! I do think it's a good bet, though (asymmetric). I've used Bitcoin again instead of a wire. Wires don't go on the weekend.

wpietri 9y ago
I'm glad you are happy with your investments, but that seems entirely beside the point we are discussing. To review, gray-area suggested Bitcoin could be a speculative bubble because there's strong exuberance and weak fundamentals. You objected to that phrase, claiming that "it works". I said that "works" is too low a standard for strong fundamentals; for that you need significant use driven by a user value proposition stronger than the alternatives. You claimed, as best I can tell, that significant use is occurring. I am asking you for data demonstrating that. I have been asking Bitcoin advocates for that for years and never received any. You haven't given me any either. Do you have it?
- discombobulate 9y ago
  Not significant use. Use. I guess there's two questions; 1) does something work? 2) is it popular for a given case(s). This relates to the delta vs substitutes. In the long run. 1 is yes. 2, I believe it will be. We haven't seen 2 much yet b/c time hasn't occured. A) wires are better, as far as I can tell. For speed. B) traditional VCs are investing in token sales, today. C) crypto hedge funds are open today. I never claimed there was significant use. I would argue it's a functioning system & there are strong value props (better than alts). You know there isn't significant use. You want to wait? Wait. I'm fast follower. I like to benefit from new technology. Startups/hackers. That sort of thing. I think other ppl can benefit if they have a look. 99/100 hype is bs. Sometimes though. It's good to be sceptical. I was.

wpietri 9y ago

I'm glad you are happy with your investments, but that seems entirely beside the point we are discussing. To review, gray-area suggested Bitcoin could be a speculative bubble because there's strong exuberance and weak fundamentals. You objected to that phrase, claiming that "it works". I said that "works" is too low a standard for strong fundamentals; for that you need significant use driven by a user value proposition stronger than the alternatives. You claimed, as best I can tell, that significant use is occurring. I am asking you for data demonstrating that. I have been asking Bitcoin advocates for that for years and never received any. You haven't given me any either. Do you have it?

discombobulate 9y ago
Not significant use. Use. I guess there's two questions; 1) does something work? 2) is it popular for a given case(s). This relates to the delta vs substitutes. In the long run. 1 is yes. 2, I believe it will be. We haven't seen 2 much yet b/c time hasn't occured. A) wires are better, as far as I can tell. For speed. B) traditional VCs are investing in token sales, today. C) crypto hedge funds are open today. I never claimed there was significant use. I would argue it's a functioning system & there are strong value props (better than alts). You know there isn't significant use. You want to wait? Wait. I'm fast follower. I like to benefit from new technology. Startups/hackers. That sort of thing. I think other ppl can benefit if they have a look. 99/100 hype is bs. Sometimes though. It's good to be sceptical. I was.