3 ms·
What's the chance of this lady winning four lotteries? About 100%, apparently.
by goatforce5 16y ago
What's the chance of this lady winning four lotteries?
About 100%, apparently.
- yafujifide 16y agoYeah, this is a perfect example of Bayesian inference in action, where you update the probabilities upon receiving more information. What's the probability that this lady will win four lotteries? Before the first lottery, insanely low, say 10^20 to one. (I haven't actually computed this, but you get the point.) After the first one, it becomes a little more probable; say 10^15 to one. After the second, 10^10 to one. After the third, 10^5 to one. After the fourth, 100%.