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> Bitcoin... is not going anywhere. Exactly. Bitcoin needs only to survive to gain long-term credibility in the public's mind. I've been long since 2011. He
by cs702 9y ago
> Bitcoin... is not going anywhere.
Exactly. Bitcoin needs only to survive to gain long-term credibility in the public's mind. I've been long since 2011. Here's what I wrote back then:
"If Bitcoin passes the harsh tests of crisis again and again, it will slowly gain credibility in the public’s mind, both as medium of exchange and store of value. Over a period of many years or even decades, as the world gradually learns via trial-and-error how to use Bitcoin, becomes familiar with its properties, and ultimately comes to trust it, nothing can prevent it from gaining as much credibility as, say, gold.
The world’s existing legal and regulatory regimes may not welcome Bitcoin at first – few governments are likely to take kindly to the emergence of a decentralized, anonymous, global currency beyond their control. Sooner or later, however, governments will adapt to the changing circumstances, as they always do. I would expect governmental acceptance of Bitcoin to occur initially in less developed countries, as many of them are already used to having their fortunes tied to a global currency beyond their control: the US dollar.
If I am right, in the long run, as man-made crises of all kinds erupt all over the planet from time to time, global adoption of Bitcoin should gradually expand from niche markets to the broader population. Ultimately, global adoption for Bitcoin should be enormous."[0]
[0] https://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adoption-and-price-appreciation-of-bitcoin-in-the-long-run/ https://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adop...
- lambdadmitry 9y agoWhat I dislike about posts like that is how little depth is in it. The whole point can be reduced to > BTC will be popular and grow because it's popular and winning right now This sound circular-ish to me. How about a different interpretation? - BTC is overhyped to the point of completely non-technical people in distant countries buying BTC "to get rich quick" (this narrative is pushed hard by both media and BTC fans). - so there is a constant influx of USD into the BTC ecosystem from those folks. Note that it happens regardless of any technical or economical analysis and drives BTC price up - however, that influx is clearly limited (by the number of naive people) and predicated on constant growth [1]. The only real purpose of BTC for those "investors" is to get rich quick, they will never buy coffee with it. As soon as USD:BTC flattens out (and it inevitably will), they will try to cash out, crashing the markets in the process. It didn't happen yet just because there were so many people to be convinced (or fooled), but it's going to happen. [1] side note: in this sense it's literally similar to ISIS, which amuses me a bit