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This type of prediction comments always strikes me as nonsense and containing zero actual information. If you believe this, either post fundamental analysis tha

This type of prediction comments always strikes me as nonsense and containing zero actual information. If you believe this, either post fundamental analysis that argues your case and have the hope of providing some valuable insight, or - even better - put your money where your mouth is. The same thing happened when people claimed to be 99.999% sure Trump would never be president, but of course they never actually bet any money on it. One could argue the grandparent doesn't argue their point either, but they definitely seem to put their money where their mouth is. All these people who are so against crypto and like to sit at the sidelines moaning about a bubble, why don't you either short it or bet against it? A la http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk

xupybd 9y ago
My money is staying away from the volitility of crypto currency. It's very hard to predict this market in the long and the short term. As far as I can tell speculation is the only driving factor in bitcoin. Not something I want to bet on or against it's too random for me.
pg314 9y ago
You can be right that it will crash and still lose your shirt if you short it, if you are wrong about the timing. As Keynes said: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” There is an inherent asymmetry between going long and short. If you're going long, your losses are capped at what you put in, and your gains are unlimited. The opposite is true if you are going short: your losses are unlimited, but your gains are limited.
- oskarth 9y ago
  That's a good counter argument, thank you. This is why I also mentioned betting against over a multi-year period, which you can do manually like Sam Altman did with tech valuations, or using something like longbets.org. You can also structure the bets so your losses or gains are limited or unlimited on whatever side you want, assuming you find a counterparty who is willing to take the bet. It is definitely more work though and maybe not something most people are willing to do unless they have strong reasons to believe they are right and can profit from it. (Another way is also to do proxy bets/investments, i.e. go long on things that are inversely correlated with X, but this is less practical in the case of cryptocurrencies for various reasons.)
- SeoxyS 9y ago
  You don't have to sell short, you can buy puts which give you far greater (not unlimited) upside than your capped downside.
  - pg314 9y ago
    True, but then your timing is even more crucial. You can be right about a coming crash, but if it happens after your put option expires, it won't do you any good...

xupybd 9y ago

My money is staying away from the volitility of crypto currency. It's very hard to predict this market in the long and the short term. As far as I can tell speculation is the only driving factor in bitcoin. Not something I want to bet on or against it's too random for me.

pg314 9y ago

You can be right that it will crash and still lose your shirt if you short it, if you are wrong about the timing. As Keynes said: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” There is an inherent asymmetry between going long and short. If you're going long, your losses are capped at what you put in, and your gains are unlimited. The opposite is true if you are going short: your losses are unlimited, but your gains are limited.

oskarth 9y ago
That's a good counter argument, thank you. This is why I also mentioned betting against over a multi-year period, which you can do manually like Sam Altman did with tech valuations, or using something like longbets.org. You can also structure the bets so your losses or gains are limited or unlimited on whatever side you want, assuming you find a counterparty who is willing to take the bet. It is definitely more work though and maybe not something most people are willing to do unless they have strong reasons to believe they are right and can profit from it. (Another way is also to do proxy bets/investments, i.e. go long on things that are inversely correlated with X, but this is less practical in the case of cryptocurrencies for various reasons.)
SeoxyS 9y ago
You don't have to sell short, you can buy puts which give you far greater (not unlimited) upside than your capped downside.
- pg314 9y ago
  True, but then your timing is even more crucial. You can be right about a coming crash, but if it happens after your put option expires, it won't do you any good...