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(Not an economist. Current h1b visa holder about to leave the US to grow my company in India.) A country whose indigenous population growth is stagnating, whos

(Not an economist. Current h1b visa holder about to leave the US to grow my company in India.) A country whose indigenous population growth is stagnating, whose indigenous population does currently not pick up all available jobs, whose economy is 6x as big as Canada and Australia combined is choosing to turn away immigrants. From a purely numerical standpoint, an 18T dollar economy built by 330M individuals will start to become unstable if the population starts falling and aging. This is a distinct possibility when you only invite highly educated, skilled immigrants since education negatively correlates to family sizes. Falling population will be another reason to push for more automation (see Japan) leading to wage stagnation. America, be careful what you wish for. Read this demographic report. It's eye opening. Childbirth rates are 1.82. If you bring in Nobel prize winners, you'll get brainy people who will not beget brainy kids. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Sta...

cmahler7 9y ago
How about we spend the same hundreds of millions or billions incentivizing those smart people to have kids rather than importing uneducated people because they breed like rabbits? Bringing in millions of people who will most likely be reliant on government benefits while punishing successful people isn't a winning strategy. Only 13% of Germany's refugees have found work, not really helping GDP. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-survey-idUSKBN13A22F http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-su... 75% will still be unemployed in 5 years. https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e27000... Instead of spending that money on welfare for uneducated immigrants spend it on paid leave for parents, health care, and better tax incentives for tax payers who have kids. You're basically promoting idiocracy the movie
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- reallydattrue 9y ago
  I would like the down-voters to explain why this is getting down voted. He is exactly right. Have none of you seen what's happening in Sweden, Germany and especially France? In France there have been many riots. All by immigrants who have low education, unskilled work and living off government welfare. This problem has been there since 20 years and has just bred another generation. Give it another 20 years and with the birth-rate as it is for immigrants, it will just get worse. There is a huge problem coming. With all these low skilled immigrants having their jobs being automated. What is the country to do with them? Oh thats right, more welfare. Well guess who is paying that. So dear "javascript" developer, you want more TAX? Because you are going to pay for it. That's why I'll never live in these countries. We are looking at 90% tax rate for the middle class. It happened in France for the high earners.
- dang 9y ago
  > importing uneducated people because they breed like rabbits Since you're posting like this after we just asked you to stop using HN for political and ideological battle, I've banned this account. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html
fiblye 9y ago
America isn't turning away Nobel Prize winners. This system is open to those who are educated and/or skilled. It's difficult for those who aren't. Many countries have similar immigration standards. It's only when America does it that people get angry. It's quite difficult for skilled workers to get visas to the EU. Far harder than it is for Europeans to move to America.
- tallanvor 9y ago
  I can't speak for most of the EU, but I know that for the UK, it's a lot of paperwork, but overall not difficult to get a visa if you have a job offer from a UK employer and they've sponsored visas before. And while not a part of the EU, it's quite straightforward to get a visa for Norway if you have a job offer in IT or other professional fields, with the major exception being healthcare, where it can be difficult to get your credentials recognized, and you have to pass an exam showing proficiency in Norwegian.
- saimiam 9y ago
  Nobel prize winners on down, the more educated you are, the less likely you are to have children. The fewer children you have, the less likely it is that your population levels will stay stable and not decline. A declining population will lead to stressed in the the economy because there will be fewer buyers, fewer producers, fewer young people and so on. I for one, am not angry that America is debating this policy. They are entitled to it. I'm adding my voice to the debate with points which favor a liberal, come-one-come-all immigration policy.
  - fiblye 9y ago
    The fact educated people aren't having children is a global phenomenon. The US relying on poor, undereducated immigrants is a temporary solution for what is becoming a bigger problem by the day as more and more countries become developed. We need to start wondering why educated people aren't reproducing and work to fix that, instead of hoping there will forever be at least one impoverished country to do the reproducing for us.
humanrebar 9y ago
> ...whose indigenous population does currently not pick up all available jobs Aren't U.S. companies responsible for retraining workers to meet their needs? Are U.S. companies entitled to business models that aren't supported by U.S. demographics? The idea that employers should just import workers doesn't help underemployed citizens. And it doesn't improve wages of employed citizens.
- saimiam 9y ago
  Fruit picking (which the indigenous population doesn't want to do) is one such business model. Nothing is more nationalistic than living off the land of that nation and that is something native born Americans don't want to do. You can't train away reluctance.
  - humanrebar 9y ago
    You can pay better.
    - saimiam 9y ago
      You can do a lot of things including eating ONLY lab grown food but will you do it or not is the question.
  - biggerbistro 9y ago
    If natives don't want to pick the fruit (ignoring the cost question) then the fruit just doesn't get picked? Perhaps fruit growing in USA is simply not a viable business, importing underpaid laborers (frequently illegally) is not the correct solution to this non-problem.
    - saimiam 9y ago
      A direct outcome of such a choice will be that biodiversity dies out. If produce in America is expensive to produce, your solution will let it go extinct. Extending this train of thought, as different areas of the world become wealthy, their flora will succumb to market pressures of the type you're envisioning. In the end, everyone will be eating foods from the least developed area today. I'm pretty certain you wouldn't want this outcome. (Edit1 for clarity.)

cmahler7 9y ago

How about we spend the same hundreds of millions or billions incentivizing those smart people to have kids rather than importing uneducated people because they breed like rabbits? Bringing in millions of people who will most likely be reliant on government benefits while punishing successful people isn't a winning strategy. Only 13% of Germany's refugees have found work, not really helping GDP. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-survey-idUSKBN13A22F http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-su... 75% will still be unemployed in 5 years. https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f https://www.ft.com/content/022de0a4-54f4-11e7-9fed-c19e27000... Instead of spending that money on welfare for uneducated immigrants spend it on paid leave for parents, health care, and better tax incentives for tax payers who have kids. You're basically promoting idiocracy the movie

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
reallydattrue 9y ago
I would like the down-voters to explain why this is getting down voted. He is exactly right. Have none of you seen what's happening in Sweden, Germany and especially France? In France there have been many riots. All by immigrants who have low education, unskilled work and living off government welfare. This problem has been there since 20 years and has just bred another generation. Give it another 20 years and with the birth-rate as it is for immigrants, it will just get worse. There is a huge problem coming. With all these low skilled immigrants having their jobs being automated. What is the country to do with them? Oh thats right, more welfare. Well guess who is paying that. So dear "javascript" developer, you want more TAX? Because you are going to pay for it. That's why I'll never live in these countries. We are looking at 90% tax rate for the middle class. It happened in France for the high earners.
dang 9y ago
> importing uneducated people because they breed like rabbits Since you're posting like this after we just asked you to stop using HN for political and ideological battle, I've banned this account. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html

fiblye 9y ago

America isn't turning away Nobel Prize winners. This system is open to those who are educated and/or skilled. It's difficult for those who aren't. Many countries have similar immigration standards. It's only when America does it that people get angry. It's quite difficult for skilled workers to get visas to the EU. Far harder than it is for Europeans to move to America.

tallanvor 9y ago
I can't speak for most of the EU, but I know that for the UK, it's a lot of paperwork, but overall not difficult to get a visa if you have a job offer from a UK employer and they've sponsored visas before. And while not a part of the EU, it's quite straightforward to get a visa for Norway if you have a job offer in IT or other professional fields, with the major exception being healthcare, where it can be difficult to get your credentials recognized, and you have to pass an exam showing proficiency in Norwegian.
saimiam 9y ago
Nobel prize winners on down, the more educated you are, the less likely you are to have children. The fewer children you have, the less likely it is that your population levels will stay stable and not decline. A declining population will lead to stressed in the the economy because there will be fewer buyers, fewer producers, fewer young people and so on. I for one, am not angry that America is debating this policy. They are entitled to it. I'm adding my voice to the debate with points which favor a liberal, come-one-come-all immigration policy.
- fiblye 9y ago
  The fact educated people aren't having children is a global phenomenon. The US relying on poor, undereducated immigrants is a temporary solution for what is becoming a bigger problem by the day as more and more countries become developed. We need to start wondering why educated people aren't reproducing and work to fix that, instead of hoping there will forever be at least one impoverished country to do the reproducing for us.

humanrebar 9y ago

> ...whose indigenous population does currently not pick up all available jobs Aren't U.S. companies responsible for retraining workers to meet their needs? Are U.S. companies entitled to business models that aren't supported by U.S. demographics? The idea that employers should just import workers doesn't help underemployed citizens. And it doesn't improve wages of employed citizens.

saimiam 9y ago
Fruit picking (which the indigenous population doesn't want to do) is one such business model. Nothing is more nationalistic than living off the land of that nation and that is something native born Americans don't want to do. You can't train away reluctance.
- humanrebar 9y ago
  You can pay better.
  - saimiam 9y ago
    You can do a lot of things including eating ONLY lab grown food but will you do it or not is the question.
- biggerbistro 9y ago
  If natives don't want to pick the fruit (ignoring the cost question) then the fruit just doesn't get picked? Perhaps fruit growing in USA is simply not a viable business, importing underpaid laborers (frequently illegally) is not the correct solution to this non-problem.
  - saimiam 9y ago
    A direct outcome of such a choice will be that biodiversity dies out. If produce in America is expensive to produce, your solution will let it go extinct. Extending this train of thought, as different areas of the world become wealthy, their flora will succumb to market pressures of the type you're envisioning. In the end, everyone will be eating foods from the least developed area today. I'm pretty certain you wouldn't want this outcome. (Edit1 for clarity.)