I made happy returns (poor-student-sized and regrettably non-leveraged) on three occasions simply by monitoring when exposure would go up and timing the end of

I made happy returns (poor-student-sized and regrettably non-leveraged) on three occasions simply by monitoring when exposure would go up and timing the end of hype (e.g. when the first senate hearing on BTC). stats.grok.se, forums and HN were good informers. Then I quit. I wish I knew the full answer to your question.