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While I think that what Tesla is doing is very exciting, I think the statements in this piece are way overblown. A war? How about healthy free market competitio

While I think that what Tesla is doing is very exciting, I think the statements in this piece are way overblown. A war? How about healthy free market competition. I too am happy that Tesla has a very different take on the way we buy and use our cars, and ultimately think the customer will be better off as a result. But I remain unconvinced that Tesla will somehow dominate the auto industry while the incumbent brands will just sit around and cry themselves to irrelevance. Tesla is pretty much the first successful electric car brand in modern times, and there were many others that have failed. While they are here to stay, they aren't out of the woods yet. The Model 3 is pretty basic, and is selling for $35K at minimum. They didn't even put a speedometer on the driver side dashboard, it's just a touch screen in the middle that displays/controls pretty much everything. It's not bad by any means, but it's a far cry from the perfect affordable every man's car. Meanwhile, Ford, GM, and VW also have very good self driving car systems in the pipeline. Pretty much every major car manufacturer is working on EV technology, and to claim the Chevy Bolt as a failure this year also does not somehow curse General Motors to some sort of permanent failure of an electric car manufacturer.

woodandsteel 9y ago
Tesla 3 critics say it will fail because it is full of flaws, so people won't buy them. And they also say that it will fail because Tesla won't be able manufacture them fast enough to keep up with demand. I think there is a bit of a contradiction here.
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  (1) If different critics criticize with different, and incompatible, complaints, so what? (2) AFAICT, the actual complaints are not what you state, but rather that Tesla won't be able to timely deliver on the flow of orders they are receiving before the cars become widely available, and that once the cars are in the hands of users, they will be disappointing, making further demand weak. These are not incompatible views.
grecy 9y ago
>The Model 3 is pretty basic, and is selling for $35K at minimum. They didn't even put a speedometer on the driver side dashboard, it's just a touch screen in the middle that displays/controls pretty much everything No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.
Someone1234 9y ago
Absolutely. I'd argue Toyota's Prius Prime is a direct response to Tesla. They too have gone large 11.6" center touch screen, it has a HUD, it has a much higher speed in EV mode, better acceleration, it is a plug-in hybrid, and has a bunch of other high tech improvements. So the car industry is definitely taking notice.
- vvanders 9y ago
  Does it do OTAs, can you buy it outside of the dealer? That's just matching feature-for-feature which is exactly what the article is arguing existing players are doing and won't keep up with Tesla.
  - Spivak 9y ago
    > Does it do OTAs It's a car. Nobody updates them. Certainly nobody drives to the dealership to get updates. Nobody outside of tech circles even know what that means. > Can you buy it outside of the dealer? So Tesla is going to win because they can do something their competition is legally prohibited from doing? If it actually started to hurt existing automakers you would see those regulations disappear faster than you can say, 'protecting the American auto industry'.
    - vvanders 9y ago
      > So Tesla is going to win because they can do something their competition is legally prohibited from doing? If it actually started to hurt existing automakers you would see those regulations disappear faster than you can say, 'protecting the American auto industry'. I'd like to introduce you to a giant lobbying organization called the NADA... [Edit] To flip that on you, the NADA has enacted laws that legally prevent Tesla from selling cars in certain states. But you know, the free market will sort all that out.
    - xenadu02 9y ago
      > It's a car. Nobody updates them. Exactly. You don't think people will get jealous when their friends and neighbors rave about how their Tesla just got this great new feature that installed itself overnight for free? This is exactly what the author was talking about: automakers are still fighting the last war and trying to match feature bullet points. Tesla has changed the game. > If it actually started to hurt existing automakers Automakers are already aware of how much everyone hates buying a car because of the Stealership Experience (TM). This is just another way Tesla has changed the game and for structural reasons their competitors won't be able to catch up. It has many parallels to cell phones and Apple with the iPhone: for years the old giants (Nokia, RIM, Sony-Ericsson) floundered without a competitive response. There were deep structural problems in the way the manufacturer-carrier relationship was setup that prevented them from responding. They also lacked the ability and will to develop a platform ecosystem - a feat only a few companies have ever really accomplished and almost all of them are on the US West Coast. There is another parallel: for the first few years their profits and stock kept rising. In 2008 RIM had no idea they were about to be evicerated - they posted record profits! Ask them how well things turned out here in 2017.
lancewiggs 9y ago
The point was that Tesla is more than a decent car - it's an entire ecosystem, including providing the power for the cars at home. They have the solar power, batteries and cars all sorted out now, and it's just a matter of ramping up production of all of them. The auto industry is shipping widgets, and Tesla is shipping solutions. It might be basic - but that's what they said about Japanese cars in the 1970s, about anything in the classic Clayton Christensen sense of a disruptive product. It might be expensive - but demand overwhelms supply. It's a war - the others just don't realise they are both in a war and have largely lost already. and I am delighted that Tesla will win - the climate crisis we are in and entering into is terrifying enough without the prospect of pumping even more CO2e into the atmosphere.
Corrado 9y ago
I felt much the same as you, until I drove a Tesla. At that moment my life was forever changed. I look at a parking lot of ICE vehicles and see nothing but horse and buggies that don't yet know that they are relics of the past. Traditional automobile companies will continue to build traditional cars and might even replace the propulsion system with an electric motor, but they will never make the jump to what Tesla has started. It is a sea change, a complete rethink of how to provide transportation to the masses and no amount of old knowledge will help. In fact, I think the longer that they have been entrenched in the old ways, the harder it will be to step out. Sure, others will make electric vehicles (at least I hope they will), but it will probably be smaller, more focused companies. Companies such as Pagani or Elio Motors will have a much easier time making the switch. Again, it's not about replacing the ICE with an electric motor, it's a whole mindset. Someone else in this thread mentioned cell phones before the iPhone as a good analogy and I agree. Look at where RIM and Nokia are compared to where there were in the early 2000's. They simply could not adapt to the new way of thinking about a cell phone. GM, Honda, Ford, Porsche, they are the RIM and Nokia of the car world; dead but they don't know it yet.
- Lramseyer 9y ago
  Pretty much all of the major car companies are making fully electric vehicles with ranges comparable to Tesla. (I know about Ford, GM, and Volvo.) However, a lot of the hype with electric vehicles is centered around Tesla right now, much like how the hype for hybrids was centered around the Prius. In my opinion, the Prius is one of the ugliest cars out there, and despite the fact that we have a lot of choices for hybrids now, the Prius is still one of the top sellers. I really hope the Model 3 does as well as the Prius has done, because (much like the Prius did) it will put market pressure in places that there previously was none. Putting most of the current auto industry out of business by being way more awesome is "good" in the short term, but then comes the monopoly, which is never good for the customer. And to the cell phone company argument, Look at LG, Samsung, and Motorola, all phone manufacturers that have been successful pre and post smartphone era.
  - manmal 9y ago
    Given the quality issues Tesla cars still have, I'm sure the current players will survive. Since they will lose a good bit of after-sale-revenue (less spare parts and maintenance needed), they will have to make up for this in some other way. Maybe.. sell supercharger hardware for home use (Tesla can't cover it all)? Yearly hardware upgrades perhaps, or entertainment? (Stream HBO on a big screen and decent sound system while driving home autonomously)

woodandsteel 9y ago

Tesla 3 critics say it will fail because it is full of flaws, so people won't buy them. And they also say that it will fail because Tesla won't be able manufacture them fast enough to keep up with demand. I think there is a bit of a contradiction here.

dragonwriter 9y ago
(1) If different critics criticize with different, and incompatible, complaints, so what? (2) AFAICT, the actual complaints are not what you state, but rather that Tesla won't be able to timely deliver on the flow of orders they are receiving before the cars become widely available, and that once the cars are in the hands of users, they will be disappointing, making further demand weak. These are not incompatible views.

grecy 9y ago

>The Model 3 is pretty basic, and is selling for $35K at minimum. They didn't even put a speedometer on the driver side dashboard, it's just a touch screen in the middle that displays/controls pretty much everything No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.

Someone1234 9y ago

Absolutely. I'd argue Toyota's Prius Prime is a direct response to Tesla. They too have gone large 11.6" center touch screen, it has a HUD, it has a much higher speed in EV mode, better acceleration, it is a plug-in hybrid, and has a bunch of other high tech improvements. So the car industry is definitely taking notice.

vvanders 9y ago
Does it do OTAs, can you buy it outside of the dealer? That's just matching feature-for-feature which is exactly what the article is arguing existing players are doing and won't keep up with Tesla.
- Spivak 9y ago
  > Does it do OTAs It's a car. Nobody updates them. Certainly nobody drives to the dealership to get updates. Nobody outside of tech circles even know what that means. > Can you buy it outside of the dealer? So Tesla is going to win because they can do something their competition is legally prohibited from doing? If it actually started to hurt existing automakers you would see those regulations disappear faster than you can say, 'protecting the American auto industry'.
  - vvanders 9y ago
    > So Tesla is going to win because they can do something their competition is legally prohibited from doing? If it actually started to hurt existing automakers you would see those regulations disappear faster than you can say, 'protecting the American auto industry'. I'd like to introduce you to a giant lobbying organization called the NADA... [Edit] To flip that on you, the NADA has enacted laws that legally prevent Tesla from selling cars in certain states. But you know, the free market will sort all that out.
  - xenadu02 9y ago
    > It's a car. Nobody updates them. Exactly. You don't think people will get jealous when their friends and neighbors rave about how their Tesla just got this great new feature that installed itself overnight for free? This is exactly what the author was talking about: automakers are still fighting the last war and trying to match feature bullet points. Tesla has changed the game. > If it actually started to hurt existing automakers Automakers are already aware of how much everyone hates buying a car because of the Stealership Experience (TM). This is just another way Tesla has changed the game and for structural reasons their competitors won't be able to catch up. It has many parallels to cell phones and Apple with the iPhone: for years the old giants (Nokia, RIM, Sony-Ericsson) floundered without a competitive response. There were deep structural problems in the way the manufacturer-carrier relationship was setup that prevented them from responding. They also lacked the ability and will to develop a platform ecosystem - a feat only a few companies have ever really accomplished and almost all of them are on the US West Coast. There is another parallel: for the first few years their profits and stock kept rising. In 2008 RIM had no idea they were about to be evicerated - they posted record profits! Ask them how well things turned out here in 2017.

lancewiggs 9y ago

The point was that Tesla is more than a decent car - it's an entire ecosystem, including providing the power for the cars at home. They have the solar power, batteries and cars all sorted out now, and it's just a matter of ramping up production of all of them. The auto industry is shipping widgets, and Tesla is shipping solutions. It might be basic - but that's what they said about Japanese cars in the 1970s, about anything in the classic Clayton Christensen sense of a disruptive product. It might be expensive - but demand overwhelms supply. It's a war - the others just don't realise they are both in a war and have largely lost already. and I am delighted that Tesla will win - the climate crisis we are in and entering into is terrifying enough without the prospect of pumping even more CO2e into the atmosphere.

Corrado 9y ago

I felt much the same as you, until I drove a Tesla. At that moment my life was forever changed. I look at a parking lot of ICE vehicles and see nothing but horse and buggies that don't yet know that they are relics of the past. Traditional automobile companies will continue to build traditional cars and might even replace the propulsion system with an electric motor, but they will never make the jump to what Tesla has started. It is a sea change, a complete rethink of how to provide transportation to the masses and no amount of old knowledge will help. In fact, I think the longer that they have been entrenched in the old ways, the harder it will be to step out. Sure, others will make electric vehicles (at least I hope they will), but it will probably be smaller, more focused companies. Companies such as Pagani or Elio Motors will have a much easier time making the switch. Again, it's not about replacing the ICE with an electric motor, it's a whole mindset. Someone else in this thread mentioned cell phones before the iPhone as a good analogy and I agree. Look at where RIM and Nokia are compared to where there were in the early 2000's. They simply could not adapt to the new way of thinking about a cell phone. GM, Honda, Ford, Porsche, they are the RIM and Nokia of the car world; dead but they don't know it yet.

Lramseyer 9y ago
Pretty much all of the major car companies are making fully electric vehicles with ranges comparable to Tesla. (I know about Ford, GM, and Volvo.) However, a lot of the hype with electric vehicles is centered around Tesla right now, much like how the hype for hybrids was centered around the Prius. In my opinion, the Prius is one of the ugliest cars out there, and despite the fact that we have a lot of choices for hybrids now, the Prius is still one of the top sellers. I really hope the Model 3 does as well as the Prius has done, because (much like the Prius did) it will put market pressure in places that there previously was none. Putting most of the current auto industry out of business by being way more awesome is "good" in the short term, but then comes the monopoly, which is never good for the customer. And to the cell phone company argument, Look at LG, Samsung, and Motorola, all phone manufacturers that have been successful pre and post smartphone era.
- manmal 9y ago
  Given the quality issues Tesla cars still have, I'm sure the current players will survive. Since they will lose a good bit of after-sale-revenue (less spare parts and maintenance needed), they will have to make up for this in some other way. Maybe.. sell supercharger hardware for home use (Tesla can't cover it all)? Yearly hardware upgrades perhaps, or entertainment? (Stream HBO on a big screen and decent sound system while driving home autonomously)