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one wireless carrier, support for CDMA networks, GPS, third-party apps, hardware keyboard, user-swappable battery, decent camera, FM radio tuner, multitasking,

by dkrich 9y ago

one wireless carrier, support for CDMA networks, GPS, third-party apps, hardware keyboard, user-swappable battery, decent camera, FM radio tuner, multitasking, and removable storage I don't know about you, but my clamshell Samsung flip phone didn't support any of that except a user-swappable batter and removable storage, both of which I would argue are not net positives, but negatives as they increase the form factor of the phone. Also, what of the 65k or so of cancelled reservations for the Model 3?

mikeash 9y ago
Why are you comparing to your clamshell Samsung flip phone specifically? You said "The iPhone on pretty much every metric was demonstrably better than every other phone on the market" so I'm comparing to every other phone on the market, not one specific low-end model. Every feature I mentioned there existed in contemporary smartphones. I even looked them up! The iPhone got a ton of criticism at the time for missing things like this. 65k cancelled reservations out of over half a million total, with net reservations increasing rapidly... what of them?
- dkrich 9y ago
  Right, on pretty much every metric. So do you think that the Motorola Razr was a better product than the iPhone because you could buy an extra battery and swap it out? I remember well when the first iPhone came out and people waited in line for hours to be able to buy one. It was just so different than any other phone available at the time. I don't really feel that applies to Tesla, and I think most consumers (not people who read and report for Bloomberg News, but the silent majority of people who are actually buying cars and keeping these companies in business) would agree. Yeah, it's cool and it's battery-powered. I get it. But pretty much every new car now is loaded with technology and can reliably get you from point A to point B. So the main differentiator is that it runs on a battery. Is that enough to get people to move en masse to Tesla? 65k cancelled reservations out of over half a million total, with net reservations increasing rapidly... what of them? I think that's the question I posed to you. Doesn't seem like there's a good answer for it.
  - mikeash 9y ago
    Why do you keep comparing to middling dumbphones? Compare the iPhone to contemporary high-end smartphones and you'll see that the iPhone was behind on pretty much every metric. The big exceptions were: 1. UI. 2. Web browser. 3. AT&T unlimited data plan. It turned out that those three metrics were really important, and that being ahead on a few really important metrics is better than being ahead on a bunch of less important ones, but it's just not the case that the iPhone was ahead "on pretty much every metric." > I think that's the question I posed to you. Can you be more specific? I don't know what you're actually asking. Are you asking why anyone would cancel? That's because sometimes people change their minds, especially when it involves giving a $1,000 interest-free loan. Are you asking if the cancellations are a counterpoint to the idea that the Model 3 will sell well? The fact that the cancellations are a small proportion of the overall reservations, and net reservations are still rapidly increasing, suggests the answer is "no." Or something else?
    - dkrich 9y ago
      Because the middling dumbphones are what comprised the majority of the market, the market that Apple completely took over. How many people were using smart phones as a % of overall market in 2007? The only real players that I can remember were Palm and Blackberry, and both those were terribly executed in comparison to the iPhone. And yeah, more than 10% of reservations were cancelled but that couldn't possibly be because people don't actually want the car at a large scale, could it? I tend to pay attention to what people do and not what they say, and the fact is that consumers purchase ICB autos at orders of magnitude higher numbers than EV. When push came to shove, 65k people who actually made the conscious decision to spend $1k to reserve a car suddenly decided they no longer wanted it. But your only reason is that "sometimes people change their minds." To me that's a nice way of saying a lot of people don't want to spend $35k on this car.
      - mikeash 9y ago
        If you intended to say that the iPhone was far superior to the typical dumbphone of the day, then I can accept that. I was responding to what you wrote, though. If 65,000 cancelled reservations translates to "a lot of people don't want to spend $35k on this car," then the nearly half a million remaining reservations must translate to "a shitload of people want to spend $35k on this car." No?

by dkrich 9y ago

mikeash 9y ago

Why are you comparing to your clamshell Samsung flip phone specifically? You said "The iPhone on pretty much every metric was demonstrably better than every other phone on the market" so I'm comparing to every other phone on the market, not one specific low-end model. Every feature I mentioned there existed in contemporary smartphones. I even looked them up! The iPhone got a ton of criticism at the time for missing things like this. 65k cancelled reservations out of over half a million total, with net reservations increasing rapidly... what of them?

dkrich 9y ago
Right, on pretty much every metric. So do you think that the Motorola Razr was a better product than the iPhone because you could buy an extra battery and swap it out? I remember well when the first iPhone came out and people waited in line for hours to be able to buy one. It was just so different than any other phone available at the time. I don't really feel that applies to Tesla, and I think most consumers (not people who read and report for Bloomberg News, but the silent majority of people who are actually buying cars and keeping these companies in business) would agree. Yeah, it's cool and it's battery-powered. I get it. But pretty much every new car now is loaded with technology and can reliably get you from point A to point B. So the main differentiator is that it runs on a battery. Is that enough to get people to move en masse to Tesla? 65k cancelled reservations out of over half a million total, with net reservations increasing rapidly... what of them? I think that's the question I posed to you. Doesn't seem like there's a good answer for it.
- mikeash 9y ago
  Why do you keep comparing to middling dumbphones? Compare the iPhone to contemporary high-end smartphones and you'll see that the iPhone was behind on pretty much every metric. The big exceptions were: 1. UI. 2. Web browser. 3. AT&T unlimited data plan. It turned out that those three metrics were really important, and that being ahead on a few really important metrics is better than being ahead on a bunch of less important ones, but it's just not the case that the iPhone was ahead "on pretty much every metric." > I think that's the question I posed to you. Can you be more specific? I don't know what you're actually asking. Are you asking why anyone would cancel? That's because sometimes people change their minds, especially when it involves giving a $1,000 interest-free loan. Are you asking if the cancellations are a counterpoint to the idea that the Model 3 will sell well? The fact that the cancellations are a small proportion of the overall reservations, and net reservations are still rapidly increasing, suggests the answer is "no." Or something else?
  - dkrich 9y ago
    Because the middling dumbphones are what comprised the majority of the market, the market that Apple completely took over. How many people were using smart phones as a % of overall market in 2007? The only real players that I can remember were Palm and Blackberry, and both those were terribly executed in comparison to the iPhone. And yeah, more than 10% of reservations were cancelled but that couldn't possibly be because people don't actually want the car at a large scale, could it? I tend to pay attention to what people do and not what they say, and the fact is that consumers purchase ICB autos at orders of magnitude higher numbers than EV. When push came to shove, 65k people who actually made the conscious decision to spend $1k to reserve a car suddenly decided they no longer wanted it. But your only reason is that "sometimes people change their minds." To me that's a nice way of saying a lot of people don't want to spend $35k on this car.
    - mikeash 9y ago
      If you intended to say that the iPhone was far superior to the typical dumbphone of the day, then I can accept that. I was responding to what you wrote, though. If 65,000 cancelled reservations translates to "a lot of people don't want to spend $35k on this car," then the nearly half a million remaining reservations must translate to "a shitload of people want to spend $35k on this car." No?