The fallacies of the armchair venture capitalist: 1. Hindsight -- it is much harder than you think to determine not only what could be profitable, but also wha

The fallacies of the armchair venture capitalist: 1. Hindsight -- it is much harder than you think to determine not only what could be profitable, but also what is impactful. A lot of it is character judgment -- it isn't like Facebook was a revolutionary new idea, but it was the competitive team with (some) vision and (a lot of) execution that brought it to new heights. 2. Just because unicorns get the majority of the media attention doesn't mean they are the majority of startups.