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I think a viable criticism would be more along the lines of does the valuation make sense based on the size of the market they can capture? That's a hard quest
by entee 9y ago
I think a viable criticism would be more along the lines of does the valuation make sense based on the size of the market they can capture?
That's a hard question to answer.
The Bull case says yes because Tesla isn't a car company it's a battery and energy company that sells cars. Therefore no sense comparing to GM or Ford or any other car company, which tend to be valued far, far more conservatively if we look at share price vs #cars sold, or pretty much any metric.
The bear case is that Tesla's share price makes zero sense at all compared to any car company ever. It's well summarized in an old article here:
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-week-1-tesla-test.html http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-wee...
And the share price has radically increased since then.
In short the article asks, what would the share price be if Tesla had the scale of Audi and the margins of Porsche. The value is on the order of $70 at that point. The $325 it's at today seems a little ambitious in that light.
Personally, I think the bear case is correct, though I admire the company, have friends who work there and I firmly hope they succeed. But wow, that price is insane.
- Tomminn 9y agoI think the bull case is built mainly along Tesla's brand. For a normal car company, the more cars you make, the less you can charge for them. You dilute your brand by going mass market and become something approximating a commodity. I think there is a case to be made that quantity will not dilute the Tesla brand as much as it dilutes other luxury car companies, since the brand isn't built on scarcity it's built on a something like a superhero. So the bull case to me is that Tesla may be able to do what Apple did-- have a small fraction of the market and take home the vast majority of the profits. And this isn't because other car companies will be less profitable then they are now, it's just that Tesla will redefine what profit margins are possible on mass market cars. Toyota has $260B revenue. Imagine a company a quarter of the size, with a 25-30% profit margin.