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I very much doubt that Tesla is in any special position right now. Tesla just has better marketing. First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces

I very much doubt that Tesla is in any special position right now. Tesla just has better marketing. First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Much of the know how is bought in from Panasonic. Gigafacory is behind the planned production time. And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-...).

dingo_bat 9y ago
> Tesla just has better marketing. Agreed. But that doesn't mean they aren't better technically, too. Case in point: Apple > First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. > And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. > And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 Oh you mean an entire country (also one of the biggest producers of manufactured goods) is going to produce only 3x the amount of batteries made by one factory, about 3 years later? Man that makes me more hyped for Tesla!
- bildung 9y ago
  > Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. It's all about logistics, infrastructure and capital. Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be&t=23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be... Switching to batteries essentially just means reprogramming those robots. > Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. Please point me to a factory that actually produces 35GWh/a ;)
  - dingo_bat 9y ago
    That video is awesome, it almost looks like the car factory in minority report!
ZeroGravitas 9y ago
Are you really trying to insult Tesla by pointing out that 1 American factory today produces one third of the amount expected of the whole of China in 4 years time? That's even weaker when Tesla is supposed to announce their own Chinese gigafactory, so hopefully that's not being counted.
- bildung 9y ago
  > Are you really trying to insult Tesla No. Tesla is not a person. > by pointing out that 1 American factory today produces one third of the amount expected of the whole of China in 4 years time? 35GWh/p is the projected capacity of Gigafactory for 2020. The factory is by no means finished and currently behind schedule. The bloomberg article I linked to compares the projected capacity of Gigafactory with the projected capacity of the new Chinese factories that, too, are currently in production and are ready at about the same time. Just look how how not one press release of Tesla lists current capacity of Gigafactory.
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    Even with all the caveats in your favor, it's still 1 factory versus the entire output of a very large country, well known for manufacturing capacity, and with strong government mandates for EV adoption. What you describe is amazing, a testament to Tesla, but you seem to be trying to knock Tesla down by stating it.
    - bildung 9y ago
      Have you actually looked at the article I linked to? At present, the US currently produces 10% of li-ion batteries worldwide, while China produces 55%. For 2021, US production is estimated to grow to about 17% while China grows to 66%. Chinese production grows faster than US production. The point I'm trying to make: Tesla doesn't seem to have a big advantage with Gigafactory, as there is plenty of worlwide production capacity other car companies could buy from. And that third party capacity grows faster.

dingo_bat 9y ago

> Tesla just has better marketing. Agreed. But that doesn't mean they aren't better technically, too. Case in point: Apple > First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. > And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. > And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 Oh you mean an entire country (also one of the biggest producers of manufactured goods) is going to produce only 3x the amount of batteries made by one factory, about 3 years later? Man that makes me more hyped for Tesla!

bildung 9y ago
> Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. It's all about logistics, infrastructure and capital. Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be&t=23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be... Switching to batteries essentially just means reprogramming those robots. > Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. Please point me to a factory that actually produces 35GWh/a ;)
- dingo_bat 9y ago
  That video is awesome, it almost looks like the car factory in minority report!

ZeroGravitas 9y ago

Are you really trying to insult Tesla by pointing out that 1 American factory today produces one third of the amount expected of the whole of China in 4 years time? That's even weaker when Tesla is supposed to announce their own Chinese gigafactory, so hopefully that's not being counted.

bildung 9y ago
> Are you really trying to insult Tesla No. Tesla is not a person. > by pointing out that 1 American factory today produces one third of the amount expected of the whole of China in 4 years time? 35GWh/p is the projected capacity of Gigafactory for 2020. The factory is by no means finished and currently behind schedule. The bloomberg article I linked to compares the projected capacity of Gigafactory with the projected capacity of the new Chinese factories that, too, are currently in production and are ready at about the same time. Just look how how not one press release of Tesla lists current capacity of Gigafactory.
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  Even with all the caveats in your favor, it's still 1 factory versus the entire output of a very large country, well known for manufacturing capacity, and with strong government mandates for EV adoption. What you describe is amazing, a testament to Tesla, but you seem to be trying to knock Tesla down by stating it.
  - bildung 9y ago
    Have you actually looked at the article I linked to? At present, the US currently produces 10% of li-ion batteries worldwide, while China produces 55%. For 2021, US production is estimated to grow to about 17% while China grows to 66%. Chinese production grows faster than US production. The point I'm trying to make: Tesla doesn't seem to have a big advantage with Gigafactory, as there is plenty of worlwide production capacity other car companies could buy from. And that third party capacity grows faster.