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This is the third or fourth article about the cost of Brexit I read this week. Another interesting one was how ridiculously expensive border control and customs
by struppi 9y ago
This is the third or fourth article about the cost of Brexit I read this week. Another interesting one was how ridiculously expensive border control and customs could become
There's still almost two years of negotiations ahead, but right now the rhetoric of the British government seems to be geared towards a hard brexit (e.g. "There will be no freedom of movement after 2019, even if we lose access to the single market").
The rhetoric on this side of the channel seems to be a bit more nuanced - but not much. Both sides have drawn some red lines, and they do not seem to overlap.
So, I fear we'll have a mostly hard Brexit in two years, and it will cost, the UK, Europe and many companies billions.
- peteretep 9y agoMy fantasy: they negotiate a deal, and then put it to a referendum with choices of Deal, No Deal, and "Please let us back in", having secretly arranged with top EU players about re-entry. Not going to happen, but a boy can dream.
- struppi 9y agoIIRC, the EU already hinted that they would allow stopping the Brexit-Process, even though this should be impossible according to Article 50. And they also said they would fast-track an application of the UK, if they applied for membership after leaving. But I guess, from the EU's perspective, you would need approval of all member states for both, which is incredibly hard to get these days. And the current UK government probably does not see any of these 2 as an option...
- pricechild 9y agoDo you have any sources that reversing article 50 "should be impossible"? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39291512 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39291512 seems to give a good spread of opinions, including: > "They might try to extract a political price," Lord Kerr said, "but legally they couldn't insist that you leave."
- struppi 9y agoI don't recall where I read it, but I recall reading an article some time ago saying there were different opinions by experts about whether the process could be stopped. Because Article 50 simply does not mention stopping the process. But I could be wrong ;)
- sleepychu 9y agoI actually think there would be plenty of support for Britain staying. I think there's still concern about what happens if the UK makes a success of Brexit, coming back and making some concessions (on our current priviledged status) is a better story for those that fear the domino of exits.
- k-mcgrady 9y ago>> this should be impossible according to Article 50 I thought it could be stopped at anytime with agreement of all member states. According to Lord Kerr (who devised Article 50): "It is not irrevocable. You can change your mind while the process is going on. During that period, if a country were to decide actually we don't want to leave after all, everybody would be very cross about it being a waste of time. They might try to extract a political price but legally they couldn't insist that you leave."
- mcherm 9y ago> I thought it could be stopped at anytime with agreement of all member states. ANYTHING can be done with agreement of all member states. Including completely rewriting the Treaty of Rome, Maastricht Treaty, and Treaty of Lisbon along with every other agreement that makes up the EU.
- charlesdm 9y agoFirst they need to negotiate a deal. I don't see Theresa May sticking around long enough to make that happen. Clock is ticking.. another 18 months.
- freeflight 9y agoI still think there is a very real possibility that Brexit will never go through. As funny and hilarious as this whole "Here hold my beer" moment had been, it won't last forever and hopefully, in the end, cooler heads will prevail.
- markvdb 9y agoDraw out the process a bit, and fairly good chance the oldest generation voting "out" have died and replaced by younger "in" voters...
- arkitaip 9y agoCould part of the problem be that EU politicians view the British POV as not only arrogant but very greedy? Historically Britain has benefited greatly from the EU, pulling off deals granted to no other EU country. Now they try to make those exclusive deals for their post brexit but don't bring enough to the table. This short clip by School of Life [1] explains just how privileged Britain's position in the EU has been. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgu6pFz5oxA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgu6pFz5oxA
- gadders 9y agoBritain is a net contributor to the EU, so it puts in more than it gets out.
- afandian 9y agoOf what? Cash or all benefits (including intangible ones)?
- dazc 9y agoOK, I'll bite. What would be an intangible benefit, for example?
- icebraining 9y agoParticipation in Erasmus, to take a random example. Hard to put an euro amount on it, but it's a benefit for the students and probably for the countries.
- gadders 9y agoThere is no hard or soft Brexit, there is only complete Brexit which is what was voted for. Soft Brexit is a fiction invented by Remainers to try and derail the process.
- struppi 9y agoOK, you're right. What I meant with "Hard Brexit" is no deal or a deal that does not include any significant free trade agreement.
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago"Soft Brexit is a fiction invented by Remainers to try and derail the process." Yes it is, let's hope it works.
- cr1895 9y ago>there is only complete Brexit which is what was voted for. The question voted upon was should the UK remain a member of the EU or not. There was no vote or understanding on how exactly that should be accomplished.