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The difference is Tesla has a plan to scale up. How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They m

The difference is Tesla has a plan to scale up. How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They may adapt, but will surely lose their comfortable position in the market.

kuschku 9y ago
Same way as Tesla: they buy them from Panasonic. Tesla doesn't actually own any of the gigafactories, Panasonic does. Tesla just buys their batteries from them. So can others.
- dingo_bat 9y ago
  https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory Does it say "Panasonic Gigafactory" anywhere on that webpage?
  - bildung 9y ago
    It doesn't say that Elon Musk isn't actually a Tesla founder either (he just bought the title together with his share in the company), and that is true, too.
jads 9y ago
> The difference is Tesla has a plan to scale up. You're assuming that a) BMW has no viable EV plan and b) Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs. To say Elon Musk is an ambitious person is an understatement. I don't doubt that the next decade in automotive industry is going to result in a major shakeup, but I disagree that it will result in some of the existing big manufacturers becoming a shadow of their former selves. It's the smaller ones like Mazda and Subaru that are more at risk. Tesla's global sales EO2016 were 150k. i3 sales by July 2016 were 50k. All of Tesla's models outsold the i3 by 3x... which isn't a lot when you take into account that Tesla have more models and have been in production for quite a few years longer. >How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They may adapt, but will surely lose their comfortable position in the market. Unless they make a decision overnight to ramp up production 10x, this isn't going to be an immediate concern. Like Tesla or other EV manufacturers, they may invest in or build battery plants of their own. Tesla's approach is neither unique nor a once-only. Besides, market share isn't everything. Just look at the iPhone. It's outsold by Android devices by a huge margin yet I don't think anyone would argue that it holds a comfortable position in the market. BMW has never been particular about it's market share, it sees itself as a luxury brand. It doesn't need (or perhaps even want) to have the most popular EV. It doesn't even have that now (it's in the top 3 though) and the market for EVs is much smaller. As long as the company is profitable and it sells well, that tends to be enough.
- dingo_bat 9y ago
  > BMW has no viable EV plan I haven't seen it yet. Maybe they've already manufactured 10 million fully autonomous EVs and holding off till 2018 just to surprise everyone. But until they start talking about it, or selling it, nobody knows. > Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs At least they are giving it a legit try. But yeah, it's a huge risk, and highly uncertain what will finally come to be. I kind of agree with the rest of what you said. BMW is likely not concerned with capturing market.
  - jads 9y ago
    I imagine BMW, like other manufacturers, are holding onto some form of internal combustion as long as possible. But they are expanding their EV options. The all-electric MINI (a popular brand and owned by BMW) is due in 2019 and there'll also be an X3 the year after. It's not quite the pace I'd hope for though.
bildung 9y ago
I very much doubt that Tesla is in any special position right now. Tesla just has better marketing. First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Much of the know how is bought in from Panasonic. Gigafacory is behind the planned production time. And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-...).
- dingo_bat 9y ago
  > Tesla just has better marketing. Agreed. But that doesn't mean they aren't better technically, too. Case in point: Apple > First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. > And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. > And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 Oh you mean an entire country (also one of the biggest producers of manufactured goods) is going to produce only 3x the amount of batteries made by one factory, about 3 years later? Man that makes me more hyped for Tesla!
  - bildung 9y ago
    > Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. It's all about logistics, infrastructure and capital. Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be&t=23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be... Switching to batteries essentially just means reprogramming those robots. > Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. Please point me to a factory that actually produces 35GWh/a ;)

kuschku 9y ago

Same way as Tesla: they buy them from Panasonic. Tesla doesn't actually own any of the gigafactories, Panasonic does. Tesla just buys their batteries from them. So can others.

dingo_bat 9y ago
https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory Does it say "Panasonic Gigafactory" anywhere on that webpage?
- bildung 9y ago
  It doesn't say that Elon Musk isn't actually a Tesla founder either (he just bought the title together with his share in the company), and that is true, too.

jads 9y ago

> The difference is Tesla has a plan to scale up. You're assuming that a) BMW has no viable EV plan and b) Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs. To say Elon Musk is an ambitious person is an understatement. I don't doubt that the next decade in automotive industry is going to result in a major shakeup, but I disagree that it will result in some of the existing big manufacturers becoming a shadow of their former selves. It's the smaller ones like Mazda and Subaru that are more at risk. Tesla's global sales EO2016 were 150k. i3 sales by July 2016 were 50k. All of Tesla's models outsold the i3 by 3x... which isn't a lot when you take into account that Tesla have more models and have been in production for quite a few years longer. >How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They may adapt, but will surely lose their comfortable position in the market. Unless they make a decision overnight to ramp up production 10x, this isn't going to be an immediate concern. Like Tesla or other EV manufacturers, they may invest in or build battery plants of their own. Tesla's approach is neither unique nor a once-only. Besides, market share isn't everything. Just look at the iPhone. It's outsold by Android devices by a huge margin yet I don't think anyone would argue that it holds a comfortable position in the market. BMW has never been particular about it's market share, it sees itself as a luxury brand. It doesn't need (or perhaps even want) to have the most popular EV. It doesn't even have that now (it's in the top 3 though) and the market for EVs is much smaller. As long as the company is profitable and it sells well, that tends to be enough.

dingo_bat 9y ago
> BMW has no viable EV plan I haven't seen it yet. Maybe they've already manufactured 10 million fully autonomous EVs and holding off till 2018 just to surprise everyone. But until they start talking about it, or selling it, nobody knows. > Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs At least they are giving it a legit try. But yeah, it's a huge risk, and highly uncertain what will finally come to be. I kind of agree with the rest of what you said. BMW is likely not concerned with capturing market.
- jads 9y ago
  I imagine BMW, like other manufacturers, are holding onto some form of internal combustion as long as possible. But they are expanding their EV options. The all-electric MINI (a popular brand and owned by BMW) is due in 2019 and there'll also be an X3 the year after. It's not quite the pace I'd hope for though.

bildung 9y ago

I very much doubt that Tesla is in any special position right now. Tesla just has better marketing. First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Much of the know how is bought in from Panasonic. Gigafacory is behind the planned production time. And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-...).

dingo_bat 9y ago
> Tesla just has better marketing. Agreed. But that doesn't mean they aren't better technically, too. Case in point: Apple > First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies. Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. > And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. > And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 Oh you mean an entire country (also one of the biggest producers of manufactured goods) is going to produce only 3x the amount of batteries made by one factory, about 3 years later? Man that makes me more hyped for Tesla!
- bildung 9y ago
  > Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that. It's all about logistics, infrastructure and capital. Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be&t=23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be... Switching to batteries essentially just means reprogramming those robots. > Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model. Please point me to a factory that actually produces 35GWh/a ;)