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I was thinking about what this had to do with HN and then it hit me: javascript is going to live forever; and C will outlast it. We can also see why it's reall

I was thinking about what this had to do with HN and then it hit me: javascript is going to live forever; and C will outlast it. We can also see why it's really difficult to compete with early [surviving] frameworks, since they will last for a really long time.

PKop 9y ago
Bitcoin. The longer it continues increasing adoption and users (like any network effect) the more useful it will become to more people. Also, the higher the market cap, the more people will be invested in its success. The longer it continues to work as designed, the more people will trust it.
- simonh 9y ago
  Apple, Microsoft and Intel have dominated the personal computer industry for almost all of its existence, and their relative positions within that market have been remarkably stable. Therefore as every year passes with that still true, the expected future lifetime of that triopoly increases.
  - franciscop 9y ago
    I am not sure companies follow this as they can go bankrupt and be gone in a matter of months.
  - mannykannot 9y ago
    There are many counterexamples in business - Nokia, Blackberry, Sears (the names live on, but as shells of their former selves.) One has to be wary of survivorship bias when looking for the Lindy effect.
- zhte415 9y ago
  Blockchain, perhaps. Bitcoin itself seems to not have gathered sufficient momentum or acceptance to gain any use outside of the use it currently has. Bitcoin is not dying, but is not thriving.
granitosaurus 9y ago
I feel like javascript could be in real danger when webassembly comes out, meaning any programming language could be compiled to webassembly so really there would be no reason to keep this ugly mess around.
pletnes 9y ago
Fortran is forever.
ido 9y ago
the canonical examples are cobol and java ("java is the new cobol"). Microsoft has managed to cram c# into the race by sheer effort and expense. js got there by happenstance of history.
- quickthrower2 9y ago
  Plus c# is a great language. A better Java.
KingMob 9y ago
Lisp. Unless you don't count Clojure, Lisp could be expected to persist another 50 years.
greenyoda 9y ago
Interesting that you mention C, but not Unix. Unix, an operating system invented in the 1970s, is still one of the most used server operating systems today (in its Linux, BSD, Solaris, etc. variations). In the corporate IT world, there are IBM operating systems, such as Z/OS, that are direct descendants of 1960s operating systems. Also, instruction sets for IBM mainframes and Intel x86 machines have been around for a very long time, and are not likely to go away any time soon. Not to mention standards like 120v/60Hz AC and the shapes of electrical connectors, which have been around even longer and will thus probably survive for a very, very long time. And going back to software, editors like Emacs and vi have been around so long (both come from the 1970s, and were invented for CRT terminals) that they're likely to keep on being used for a long time to come.

PKop 9y ago

Bitcoin. The longer it continues increasing adoption and users (like any network effect) the more useful it will become to more people. Also, the higher the market cap, the more people will be invested in its success. The longer it continues to work as designed, the more people will trust it.

simonh 9y ago
Apple, Microsoft and Intel have dominated the personal computer industry for almost all of its existence, and their relative positions within that market have been remarkably stable. Therefore as every year passes with that still true, the expected future lifetime of that triopoly increases.
- franciscop 9y ago
  I am not sure companies follow this as they can go bankrupt and be gone in a matter of months.
- mannykannot 9y ago
  There are many counterexamples in business - Nokia, Blackberry, Sears (the names live on, but as shells of their former selves.) One has to be wary of survivorship bias when looking for the Lindy effect.
zhte415 9y ago
Blockchain, perhaps. Bitcoin itself seems to not have gathered sufficient momentum or acceptance to gain any use outside of the use it currently has. Bitcoin is not dying, but is not thriving.

granitosaurus 9y ago

I feel like javascript could be in real danger when webassembly comes out, meaning any programming language could be compiled to webassembly so really there would be no reason to keep this ugly mess around.

pletnes 9y ago

Fortran is forever.

ido 9y ago

the canonical examples are cobol and java ("java is the new cobol"). Microsoft has managed to cram c# into the race by sheer effort and expense. js got there by happenstance of history.

quickthrower2 9y ago
Plus c# is a great language. A better Java.

KingMob 9y ago

Lisp. Unless you don't count Clojure, Lisp could be expected to persist another 50 years.

greenyoda 9y ago

Interesting that you mention C, but not Unix. Unix, an operating system invented in the 1970s, is still one of the most used server operating systems today (in its Linux, BSD, Solaris, etc. variations). In the corporate IT world, there are IBM operating systems, such as Z/OS, that are direct descendants of 1960s operating systems. Also, instruction sets for IBM mainframes and Intel x86 machines have been around for a very long time, and are not likely to go away any time soon. Not to mention standards like 120v/60Hz AC and the shapes of electrical connectors, which have been around even longer and will thus probably survive for a very, very long time. And going back to software, editors like Emacs and vi have been around so long (both come from the 1970s, and were invented for CRT terminals) that they're likely to keep on being used for a long time to come.