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Jim Mellon and high-profile partners roll the dice on an anti-aging upstart
- cupcakestand 9y agotl;dr British billionaire Jim Mellon wants to launch a company named Juvenescence with plans to make a big splash in anti-aging research.
- mark024 9y agoI would spend half a billion and for myself first and foremost, why would I save money for, to be the richest guy in the graveyard.
- easytiger 9y agoAn interesting area investment wise. Really don't know what to make of it as I do see a great deal of risk in these companies personally, that somehow others are happy with. No real products, no real roadmap. Jim has also made some very bad pharma calls in the past and had some very clueless people running his pharma companies. That said he looks to have done some real research. > The primary game plan at Juvenescence, explains Bailey, is to come up with various operations engaged in developing new anti-aging drugs > Juvenescence Bio will be charged with building the pipeline, says Bailey, in part with the molecules that will be identified through the AI venture. To me that's a warning sign. I like the ambition. This is Elon Musk level stuff. But he isn't crazy enough to deal in unproven potential outcomes. He knew rockets can go to space, he knew electric cars can drive, he knew batteries can store energy/money. He knew what he could sell when he solved the issues Here i'm not sure they know what they will have in the end and that would scare me off.
- colbyh 9y agothis is the difference between basic and applied research - Musk is doing great work in the applied research space. taking proven models and bringing them to market, bringing down costs, etc. anti-aging research is still in the basic phase - it might be decades before techniques can be applied with any sort of scale. in that sense you really do need huge institutions (or in this case, billionaires) to fund it all. retail investors like you (assuming) and I really can't get involved at the scale or timelines these sorts of ventures require.
- easytiger 9y agoIndeed. Very pleased of course someone is willing to take risks. This is how we ended up with railways, undersea telegraph, commercial commodotised flight and so on.
- fullshark 9y agoThe theoretical rewards though...
- easytiger 9y agoIndeed. And he has the money to spend and he knows how to get "friends and family" involved. Furthermore, only one or two of the ideas have to be marketable to make a valuable pharma property. I wish i was able to burn ten,twenty million finding out if I was right or not!
- paulsutter 9y agoScare you off from what? From reading about it?
- easytiger 9y agoinvesting hard won £
- paulsutter 9y agoI can see why a billionaire would need your help on that. I guess he needs to up his game.
- easytiger 9y agoif we are to be pedantic hes only a billionaire in $$ My point is he is taking a risk on a moonshot strategy with money he's happy to lose. A pension fund isn't going to invest, nor is a standard high risk investor. My risk appetite hasn't yet been convinced. Yours may of course be entirely different Thanks however, for the reddit level of snark
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- JPLeRouzic 9y agoThe old quest of pharmaceutical industry of one small molecule for each disease is largely over. There are perhaps different kind of strategies. For example having a symbiote organism in our body. A very simple one, the baker's yeast, which is used since centuries by women to have a good look, can generate precursors of nicotinamide riboside, and mammalian cells can take up extracellular NAD+ from their surroundings [0]. It is far from being a silver bullet, but it works. There is a long record of modifying Saccharomyces cerevisiae genome, so designing a much more effective S. Cerevisiae is not an unreasonable bet. After that it is a question of customer education, about what they can expect and not expect from a product. [0] https://umm.edu/health/medical/altmed/supplement/brewers-yeast https://umm.edu/health/medical/altmed/supplement/brewers-yea...
- allenz 9y agoI don't feel that ambition and risk is a bad thing. Elon Musk is crazier than you give him credit for. He started Neuralink, which is even more of a moonshot biotech company. I think that starting a new car/rocket company was riskier, back in 2003, for economic and political reasons. However, I agree that Juvenescence has too much hype and not enough detail. Musk talks big but gives detailed arguments about why he can succeed. Here they seem to just want to get their name out. I'm particularly concerned that Mellon is running a biotech VC fund, juvenescence.life, which incentives PR over substance. All I've read so far is that they want to apply ML to improve the drug pipeline and discover better drugs. It's not a new idea. There is existing research on using neural networks to predict drug effects, and more broadly many are working on high throughout screening for drug candidates, fully robotic wet labs, etc. But aspects of drug discovery are poorly suited for AI: it's a complex, heterogeneous process requiring logical reasoning and modeling on top of immense structured domain knowledge. The burden is on Juvenescence to make a convincing pitch.
- KGIII 9y agoTiny nitpick; Musk didn't start Tesla Motors (now Tesla Inc.) He joined in an early funding round. He did some work with the Roadster and took more control during(?) the recession. Maybe just prior to it, I don't recall the dates. Err... I was an early investor, not long after their IPO. So, I've paid a little attention.
- narrator 9y agoIt's great how trying to live forever went from being considered impossible to something that Google and many billionaires are investing a lot of money into. I think Aubrey de Grey had a lot to do with this by making the SENS approach which has helped properly characterize the types of cellular damage attributable to aging.
- Koshkin 9y agoAnti-aging research has little, if anything, to do with "trying to live forever". It has more to do with "staying forever young", i.e., staying healthy and strong and good-looking until death. Aging increases the organism's fragility and makes it prone to getting ill, and trying to slow down this process is, of course, a meaningful and venerable goal. Living forever, on the other hand, is impossible in principle, unfortunately - for at least two reasons: the limited capacity of our brain and the mean time from birth to a fatal accident being around two hundred years.
- bigleagueposter 9y agoIf you didn't age you would reduce the risk of fatal accidents.
- naasking 9y agoYou simply can't reduce it to zero. Around 200 years, nearly everyone will have at least experienced a near fatal accident, statistically. If you're 40, you probably already know someone who has.
- D-Coder 9y agoThat's at current levels of fatal accidents. Some kinds of accidents have already been significantly reduced, others probably will be.
- Turing_Machine 9y agoYou are assuming that everyone leads an equally-risky lifestyle when that is clearly not the case. Statistics are useful for large numbers, but can be quite misleading for individuals (especially for people as divergent in behavior as human beings). Just a guess, but I would bet that avoiding drunk driving (or being on the road at times that drunks are likely to be driving), taking care with prescription drug use, avoiding swimming pools, and changing your smoke detector batteries regularly would double that 200 year span, at least. Maybe more.
- pcmaffey 9y agoBlood boys for the people!
- reasonattlm 9y agoIf Juvenescence puts serious effort into senolytics, then this will be useful. The more the merrier in that field to join Unity Biotechnology, Oisin Biotechnologies, SIWA Therapeutics, etc. Everything else outside the SENS portfolio that can be accomplished via drug discovery to alter the operation of metabolism, focusing on known targets such as mTOR, is most likely a pointless waste of time and energy. It has been a pointless waste of time and energy for the past two decades, and I don't see that changing any time soon. The approach of trying to mimic calorie restriction or upregulate autophagy or mess with growth hormone/insulin metabolism or mimic exercise has very definite upper bounds on effectiveness. The longevity dividend promise of "spend billions to add a couple of years of life expectancy by 2040" is underwhelming, and anyone out there talking about drug discovery to alter metabolism to slow aging is in that camp. If billions are to be spent, then use them to follow the SENS approach of damage repair, not tinkering the system to slightly slow down the pace of damage accumulation. Only damage repair, such as via senolytics to clear senescent cell accumulation, can in principle produce rejuvenation of the old and greatly extended healthy life spans, more than just a few years. It is not a coincidence that senescent cell clearance has in a few short years, just as soon as people started to try it in earnest, proven itself far more effective and reliable and useful than the past 20 years of people trying to mimic calorie restriction or boost autophagy.
- kanzure 9y agoI think most of this money would be better spent focused on reducing the cost of life extension research, like essential tooling, not spelunking through combinatorial search space for drugs. Granted, this is more of an engineering approach, so I could see why biologists might prefer tinkering with oxidation pathways. If a synthetic genome costs $40 million then how are you going to try out 1,000 low-aging variants of the genome without spending an impossibly large amount of money? The cost centers need to be ruthlessly attacked-- sequencing, synthesis, combinatorial array testing, scale-up of arbitrary biomolecule production, debugging methodologies (optogenetics has been a tremendous success), etc.
- true_religion 9y ago$40 million times 1000, is forty billion dollars. This is less than half the networth of Bill Gates. If a single-mans fortune could potentially fund the entire thing, then for sure a coalition of wealth could easily fund it if there was even a mild guarantee for success.
- fithisux 9y agoAnti-aging is for future. For now ban smokes/alcohol tax fat/sugar for those causing accidents, make them pay the hospital bills and eliminate unemployment. Law cannot stop injustice, which reduces quality of life, but can make people feel that someone is by their side, which increases quality of life.
- aggie 9y ago> ban smokes/alcohol That didn't even work with a Constitutional amendment. If culture doesn't change, you'll have to live with it - there's no legal remedy. > tax fat/sugar Risky, given the track record of nutrition science, but better than outright bans. Why don't we start by not subsidizing sugar.
- dghughes 9y agoI'm worried about my brain more than the other parts of my body. I can do something to stay relatively health but my brain will shrink into a raisin no matter what I do.
- victor106 9y agoDeath will become optional at some point. But it will be only for the rich. Death was always this great equalizer. With that not being the case there will be a revolt on the size and proportion humanity would not have seen. how do we deal with that?
- ImSkeptical 9y agoTechnology is going to force us to deal with some age old questions. There is a line I remember from Gibbon's "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" that goes something like "There is neither art nor skill at arms which will protect one man from one hundred of his fellows." In context, it's referring to the fact that even Roman emperors could be murdered by a relatively small coalition of men. No matter how rich and powerful a person is, a few people working together and willing to sacrifice can kill that rich and powerful person. Technology seems to imperil this age old truth. What about an immortal billionaire with drones, AI, and a robot army? The coming elite will have power that no human individual, or even organization, has ever had. We should figure out how to deal with that - but I don't really expect the common folk will. Instead, we may just have to hope that our future billionaire deities are benevolent.
- true_religion 9y agoCould the rich raise armies and hold off the rest of the world? Yes... but only if the rest of the world has no technology or monies of its own, and additionally none of the 'rich' are in opposition that that single renegades plan.
- cubano 9y agoHuman history seems to prove that over time, any billionaires heirs will eventually drain the money away.
- godelski 9y agoI see this happening a few different possible ways. 1) You give it to everyone. 2) You make it expensive, but not prohibitively. Maybe out of reach of the lower class, but obtainable to the middle. The latter is more likely. Though if we're looking at the emerging markets with automation, we see that #1 isn't out of the question. If you're making money from people, the amount of people helps you make money. In reality I think it'll take quite some time to get to either of those points. Because in the beginning this technology is likely to be extremely costly. And I worry that this fact (I'm predicting the common s-curve) will prevent it from becoming cheap.
- anaheim_ducks2 9y agoTick tock, tick tock Mellon. Money won't save you.
- idlewords 9y agoThis is an interesting case where it's hard to separate rationality from human nature. On the one hand, people don't want to lose their investment. On the other hand, people really, really don't want to die. So as billionaires get older, they are going to feel a lot of psychological pressure to believe life-extension startup stories they might not find as credible in another context. I think one nice way to solve this is to require a small, objective proof of concept for startups claiming to have a rejuvenating technology. I propose they solve baldness. It will not only demonstrate the technology, but remove the funding problem entirely.
- yazaddaruvala 9y agoIt also removes 99.9999% of the reward :) Moonshots should be moonshots
- jacquesm 9y ago> This is an interesting case where it's hard to separate rationality from human nature. The Roman Catholic Church has had this thing sewn up for at least a millennium. Giving large amounts of money to the church on your deathbed is a surefire way to open the gates of heaven, or so I'm told.
- tptacek 9y agoMaybe in the time of the Medicis. The Roman Catholic Church doesn't give much of a fuck whether you give them a dime today. It's not that kind of organization.
- jacquesm 9y agoHaha. That's so funny. You should have been around when my grandmother died. They took her for a pretty penny. Not that I care because I didn't want any money from her anyway but they sure know who their marks are. In Poland just about every interaction with the church has a price tag attached to it, ditto in Spain. There's a reason the Vatican is lined with gold and it has precious little to do with the Medicis and everything to do with tithe, real estate, compound interest and outright scams.
- matt_wulfeck 9y agoNothing new here. The rich always fund the search for the fountain of youth, and yet they always die. Thank goodness.
- RichardHeart 9y agoTier 1 entrepreneur gives the masses what they want. Tier 2 gives the masses what they should want, and makes them want it. Tier 3 saves their lives so they have time to learn to want better things. Med tech is best tech. It also relies on much of the fun tech.
- distantsounds 9y agoI've had my immortality rings from Alex Chiu for years now. They should just talk to him. http://alexchiu.com/ http://alexchiu.com/
- desireco42 9y ago:) I forgot about that. Yeah, he needs some serious backing.