If you know yourself, you can find the optimal fudge factor. On projects that I've managed before and currently, I've found 2X is the right multiplier to great

If you know yourself, you can find the optimal fudge factor. On projects that I've managed before and currently, I've found 2X is the right multiplier to great developers. The major issue is to a great developer, everything is easy. But its the few tasks that for some reason take up a huge amount of time when they shouldn't. Over time, I've learned to increase my estimated times and decrease my fudge factor because I've done enough estimates. Its always better to under promise and over deliver even if you loose out on a contract now and then. In the long run your reputation will make up for a slightly higher price if people know that you will never go over that price. The major problem is defining the full requirements. Your estimate could be perfect, but it could be an estimate for what the client said, but not what he wants.