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North Korea Learned from Libya War to Never Give Up Nukes
- arcanus 9y agoAnd they are correct. We encouraged quddafi to give up his program, lifted sanctions, and then pushed him into a corner at the first opportunity. He had no viable way to abdicate without being tried for war crimes. The same policy has occurred in Syria. We need to encourage dictators to leave office, not indicate that they will be tried and imprisoned. This isn't a humanitarian argument, it is game theory. But it will save lives and reduce conflicts. The outcome is superior. I'll take a horrible person escaping justice over thousands of human casualties any day.
- Kenji 9y agoI always say, just like revolvers are equalizers for humans, nukes are equalizers for countries. I think nuclear proliferation is a good thing.
- lwansbrough 9y agoDo you also always wear a suicide vest in case anyone wants fight you?
- Giorgi 9y agoIn cease "someone" overpowers you and threatens to kill you with knife up in the ass, then yes - you better wear suicide vest.
- jameslk 9y agoNice strawman, but in reality you can punch back at someone who wants to fight or run away. When all you have is one planet and there exists a few cunning and belligerent actors with immense resources and oversized military budgets, you don't have the same options when you're cornered.
- Kenji 9y agoI only bring a metaphorical suicide vest when I am being honest on hackernews. I have spectacularly unpopular opinions.
- farseer 9y agoAgreed. Of-course this also raises the possibility that somewhere, a perfectly rational actor would see no way out but to use one. There are historical examples where things were quite on the brink: 1. Israel threatened to use them in the opening days of 1973 war: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/06/opinion/the-last-nuclear-moment.html http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/06/opinion/the-last-nuclear-m... 2. Pakistan threatened to use them in 1986-87 during operation brasstacks: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1993/03/29/on-the-nuclear-edge http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1993/03/29/on-the-nuclear-... 3. North Korea today.
- krapp 9y ago>Of-course this also raises the possibility that somewhere, a perfectly rational actor would see no way out but to use one. There are historical examples where things were quite on the brink And, of course, the one time it actually happened.
- Kenji 9y agoIf a rational actor sees no way out but to use a nuke, then there is a much larger irrational actor that is tyrannizing the world and needs to be destroyed. And since the actor is rational, it will have carefully considered the choice and have come to the conclusion that the loss of life was worth it, for an end of tyranny.
- farseer 9y ago
- mathperson 9y agooh god. you must have never heard the words INDIA, or PAKISTAN, OR BROKEN ARROW, or CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS, or FIRST STRIKE.... This is perhaps the most inanely dumb thing I've ever read. I am sorry. I need to remove my veneer of politeness. It will probably be fine with North Korea...but NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION is unquestionably, unquestionably bad. The chance for irrational behavior or mistakes or bad actors obtaining weapons or nation states losing control of events.... good god man. go douse your face with cold water. you need to get your head on right. There is a difference between something being rational in the context of one nation's foreign policy...and "GOOD"
- jameslk 9y agoSure, the US and Russia should go first in ridding themselves of nuclear weapons since they seem to have the most. Then we can really talk about non-nuclear proliferation. There's really no reason anyone should have these immensely dangerous weapons, other than for MAD. But should these nuclear-armed-to-the-teeth states push others around while largely keeping their own nukes, what kind of message does that send?
- mathperson 9y agothe US and Russia will never disarm fully. never. don't even bother discussing it. Russia will never disarm because without nukes they believe they could be crushed at will by the conventional weapons of the west. they feel encircled by NATO. The united states will never disarm fully because russia will never disarm. the best we can hope for is reductions in forces and greater transparency and communication to reduce the risk of misinterpreting the other's intentions or some terrible accident. The reason states have nuclear weapons is deterrence (aka MAD) which is quite a compelling reason... Honestly I don't really think you and I have any disagreement? It is hard to convince people to disarm when they have seen the consequences thereof- see Iraq, see Libya, see Ukraine. As for nuclear armed to the teeth states pushing people around, this is because the United States and Russia have large conventional militaries. The nuclear option is more a constraint on the aggression of others- since any offensive use of nuclear weapons could induce a massive chain reaction. Nuclear armed-to-the teeth states push others around (by this I assume you mean the US and Russia) because they have the conventional means.
- miles 9y ago"I think nuclear proliferation is a good thing." Except, you know, when we accidentally blow up the entire world: Stanislav Petrov: The man who may have saved the world http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24280831 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24280831 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov Thank you Vasili Arkhipov, the man who stopped nuclear war https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/27/vasili-arkhipov-stopped-nuclear-war https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/27/vasili... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov
- tomjen3 9y agoalternatively we should kill Kim now, then publicly inform the world that anyone threatening the us with nukes is subject to the same. Nk is not going to launch on the us today and any surviving generals are going to have to find a new leader willing to go with the plan.
- heavenlyblue 9y agoThen get Seoul carpet-bombed by the artillery close to the border.
- user982 9y agoThe US regime has had nuclear missiles trained on a non-nuclear North Korea for decades, and has openly and seriously threatened to drop dozens of nuclear bombs at once on the populace and salt the land afterward with radioactive cobalt to prevent future human life.[1] Yes, how dare they bluster back, you'd better kill them for the insolence as an example to others. [1]: http://www.nytimes.com/1964/04/09/texts-of-accounts-by-lucas-and-considine-on-interviews-with-macarthur-in-1954.html http://www.nytimes.com/1964/04/09/texts-of-accounts-by-lucas...
- tomjen3 9y agoNK does not respect the freedom and natural rights of its citizens, so we shouldn't respect the rights of that country.
- justboxing 9y ago> We need to encourage dictators to leave office Easier said than done. At the core of a Dictator's dictatorship is sheer brutality and unimaginable cruelty. They rule using Fear. What dictator in recent history (last 100 years) has willingly stepped down?
- trendia 9y agoJuan Carlos I of Spain. (Not exactly the same, but he could have had absolute power and chose to give that up) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_transition_to_democracy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_transition_to_democr...
- justboxing 9y ago> Prince Juan Carlos initially remained in the background during public appearances and seemed ready to follow in Franco's footsteps. Once in power as King of Spain, however, he facilitated the development of a "constitutional monarchy". Doesn't sound like he gave it up, just re-branded it to keep with the times. Like my father used to say "Death alone can remove them."
- louithethrid 9y agoLots of others had plans to step down (aka move out, when a new dictatory/ the military moves in) - as shown by very rich ex-dictators living well all around the world.
- geoka9 9y agoAlso quite possibly from the Russian aggression against Ukraine (see Budapest Memorandum).
- spodek 9y agoThe artillery that can reach Seoul and the buffer the nation offers China from the U.S. military there is all they need to prevent invasion. Then they can do what they want.
- rmason 9y agoActually the Ukraine is a much better example. When they gave up their nukes they got promises from other nations to come to their defense if Russia attacked. When it happened not only didn't they get help the other nations refused to even sell them weapons!
- mikeash 9y agoUkraine got promises to respect their territorial integrity, not promises to come to their defense. Russia broke that promise, and the others are still keeping it.
- yardie 9y agoI've read this 3 time and I still don't get it. So you're saying the other Europeans have kept their promise by not invading Ukraine. Umm that sounds like the status quo not something you go through the trouble of writing a treaty for.
- mikeash 9y agoMost of Europe was not involved, but basically yes. In exchange for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan giving up nuclear weapons, Russia, the US, and the UK agreed to respect their independence and sovereignty, not use military or economic force against them, and ask the UN Security Council to intervene if they are attacked by nuclear weapons. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... The idea that the US was obligated to defend Ukraine against Russia is a common one, but as far as I can tell traces back to a misunderstanding of what that memorandum actually says.
- yardie 9y agoI thought the invasion of Crimea was to prevent Ukraine from getting too close to NATO. It appears to have worked.
- 9y ago
- justonepost 9y agoNot exactly. NK is protectorate of China and has zillions of conventional weapons aimed directly at Seoul. Nuclear wasn't necessary.
- boomboomsubban 9y agoThey don't want to rely on China to secure their regime, they know how precarious that position can be.
- free_everybody 9y agoCrazy how humanity's "advancement" involves a world-wide practice of game theory with nuclear bombs. We're all complicit...
- lostmsu 9y agoOnly as long as all actors in play are rational.
- farseer 9y agoLibya, Iraq and Ukraine are all good examples of places where possession of WMD would have kept wolves at bay.
- mschuster91 9y agoYeah if keeping a dictator in power is what you desire, then by all means let dictators have nuclear weapons. If not, it should be of global interest to crush the dictators. The problem with Libya and Iraq (as well as Afghanistan!) is that there never has been a coherent post-war plan. Which means: what is to be done after the troops are finished? There has been no plan about - how to disarm the various militias enlisted to fight - how to transition countries to democracy without kleptocrats and other opportunists abusing and hijacking the system - how to actually rebuild all the destroyed infrastructure (roads, bridges, water, electricity, communication) - how to actually unite and pacify the various ethnic/religious communities and prevent them from fighting each other: this is what fucked up former Yugoslavia, and now Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, and will likely drag out the Syria conflict.
- nowarninglabel 9y ago>how to actually unite and pacify the various ethnic/religious communities and prevent them from fighting each other That is exactly what dictators do! Not perfectly, but a lot better than what has happened in the countries you've noted where the dictators were ousted or attempted to be ousted. So, I'd disagree that it should be a global interest to crush dictators. So far, this has caused much greater harm than good.
- mschuster91 9y ago> So, I'd disagree that it should be a global interest to crush dictators. Dictators usually enrich themselves and defraud incoming money (and food aid) by pocketing it in their personal or their families' coffers, also most dictators resort to brutal violence to maintain their rule; as a result people will attempt to flee these countries. And this causes harm - first of all for the fleeing people who are often enough abused as slaves or prostitutes, but also by funding criminal networks (e.g. the Mafia, which has discovered that people-smuggling and involvement in refugee operations is way more profitable and riskless than drug trading). Also, when we as the Western world fail to provide basic human rights to any person on this planet, when we fail to even TRY and instead make "deals" with those violating human rights, what are the human rights then worth? I agree that the last few ousted dictators went badly, but more because the Western countries failed to provide an exit strategy, not because they attempted to oust the dictators.
- Giorgi 9y agoyeah, Ukraine learned that hard way too, you know... after Russian invasion
- pasbesoin 9y agoAnd from Ukraine, as a prominent Ukrainian was saying just the other day, on WBEZ's "Worldview" radio show. P.S. I took a quick glance at their programming list, and I'm guessing it was this interview. I was listening a bit out of one ear while about other stuff: https://www.wbez.org/shows/worldview/legislating-peace-and-reform-in-ukraine/8d68ba61-3dcb-4247-a0ac-8e58ffd7f1ea https://www.wbez.org/shows/worldview/legislating-peace-and-r... Legislating Peace And Reform In Ukraine July 24, 2017 20 min To discuss how Ukraine is inspired by Western Europe to reform, and how the war in Eastern Ukraine is holding, Worldview joined by Ostap Kryvdyk, a senior foreign policy advisor to the Speaker of Ukraine’s parliament.