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I wonder if there might be a global housing crisis in the future. I know the population is constantly growing, but there has been a massive amount of constructi

I wonder if there might be a global housing crisis in the future. I know the population is constantly growing, but there has been a massive amount of construction of residential buildings world-wide (due to prolonged period of low interest rates, as well as rapid appreciation of existing assets).

tehlike 9y ago
Real estate is somewhat local. Bay area gets less construction because of zoning and nimby.
ido 9y ago
Population growth has been slowing since 1989 and the population in total is predicted to peak between the mid and late 21st century[1]. In many western countries this has already happened. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
- bogomipz 9y ago
  From you own link: "The United Nations Population Division projects world population to peak at over 10 billion at the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline. A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century." So clearly there is disagreement between those two. Using the 2014 study, there would be an increase in the current population(~7 billion) by greater than 50% and continued growth for another centruy.
- Someone 9y ago
  On the other hand, the number of persons per household still has quite a bit of room for dropping in many parts of the world. The USA seems to have plateaued there at about 2.5 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-households-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-h...), but China still is at 3.0, and India at 4.8 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_households https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_...). If both drop to 2.5, that's 20% potential growth in China and over 90% for India. Whether that will happen and at what speed of course is anybody's guess.

tehlike 9y ago

Real estate is somewhat local. Bay area gets less construction because of zoning and nimby.

ido 9y ago

Population growth has been slowing since 1989 and the population in total is predicted to peak between the mid and late 21st century[1]. In many western countries this has already happened. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

bogomipz 9y ago
From you own link: "The United Nations Population Division projects world population to peak at over 10 billion at the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline. A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century." So clearly there is disagreement between those two. Using the 2014 study, there would be an increase in the current population(~7 billion) by greater than 50% and continued growth for another centruy.
Someone 9y ago
On the other hand, the number of persons per household still has quite a bit of room for dropping in many parts of the world. The USA seems to have plateaued there at about 2.5 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-households-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-h...), but China still is at 3.0, and India at 4.8 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_households https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_...). If both drop to 2.5, that's 20% potential growth in China and over 90% for India. Whether that will happen and at what speed of course is anybody's guess.