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Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you hold BTC with Coinbase (or any wallet you don't control) you'd be extremely foolish not to pull it out now. The value of BT

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you hold BTC with Coinbase (or any wallet you don't control) you'd be extremely foolish not to pull it out now. The value of BTC after the fork will presumably be the value of BTC + BCC after the fork. If BCC has any value at over the coming months, then that is effectively yours but inaccessible. And if it retains value, Coinbase is going to be in a very awkward situation where they're sitting on an asset that may or may not be yours any more. -- EDIT: Actually, the savviest move is probably to sell. Coinbase's position mean that it's more than likely that a lot of BCC is inaccessible even if it has value. That means BTC drops with no way to recover the lost value. Either the value of BCC drops to zero (and BTC recovers over time) or Coinbase eventually releases BCC (people who held it get BCC equivalent to the loss in BTC value). Either way if you sell immediately before the fork and purchase when it drops, you should retain the lost BCC value. (This assumes that BTC itself doesn't lose out).

gibybo 9y ago
Selling is reasonable, but so is just withdrawing and taking the BCC, especially if you want to defer taxes. Coinbase won't let you sell the BCC directly, but you'll be able to exchange the BCC for BTC on many other exchanges quickly and easily, then you can just sell the additional BTC on coinbase.
- polemic 9y ago
  Even so, there will be a certain amount of BCC that is locked up and unavailable on any market. For a time, there will be simply less BCC than BTC. BTC should remain suppressed while the question of the locked up BCC is resolved (either by tending to $0 or it becoming available to trade). Given those assumptions, you might break even (or gain if you're particularly quick/smart) if you sell the BCC after the fork, but it would seem like you near guarantee a profit if you sell BTC before and buy back after. That profit is off the back off value locked up in BCC by users who didn't pull it out.
untilHellbanned 9y ago
Caution: your advice didn't hold for Ethereum. When Ethereum forked, it didn't lose any value and Ethereum Classic value got created out of nothing. Compare around July 20, 2016: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#charts https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#charts https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-classic/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-classic/
- runeks 9y ago
  For Ethereum, was/is it possible to sell your coins on the fork you're not interested in? With BCC, you can create a transaction that transfers only BCC, thus allowing you to sell your newly-acquired BCC, while keeping your BTC. I'd be interested in knowing if this were the same with Ethereum (Classic), since I would assume it would put a large selling pressure on the minority fork (the greater the minority the greater the relative selling pressure).
  - aerique 9y ago
    I had ETH on Kraken and after the fork I had ETH and ETC. However there's no saying what exchanges will do in this case. If you have your own BTC you will have BTC and BCC after the fork which you can sell.
  - gst 9y ago
    > For Ethereum, was/is it possible to sell your coins on the fork you're not interested in? Yes. There was no replay protection (transactions were valid on both chains) but soon after the fork people created smart contracts that got initialized to a different state on each of the chains. So you could, e.g., send your coins to the smart contract which then would forward it to your address A on the first chain and to your address B on the second chain.
- polemic 9y ago
  Well if I read those charts correctly you could've sold ETH at about $20 and bought at $12. It then stabilised around $15. And ETC was able to be sold for what, $1? Seems like selling and buying ETH would've been a good move. Of course this stuff swings all over the place - you're as likely to get stung by some random swing in values as anything else I guess.
gfody 9y ago
the only way your money is at risk with Coinbase is if BTC itself does lose out - the so called 'wipeout' scenario described here: https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148 https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip14... 'wipeout' is a total longshot and we ought to be able to see it coming. either way it's not really a problem unless you have transactions on both versions to reconcile, and you can avoid that by simply not spending coin for a couple days. Coinbase can't just freeze everyones coin so having to reconcile with a fork after it achieves majority hashrate would be a real nightmare.
- driverdan 9y ago
  Your money is always at risk when you let a 3rd party hold it. You should not be storing cryptocurrencies with 3rd parties.
  - gfody 9y ago
    well sure, but i'm referring to additional risk relative to 8/1. if you were comfortable storing your money with Coinbase before then 8/1 shouldn't deter you.
Fej 9y ago
Is there any way to short BTC/USD? I'm not going to, I'm just curious if anyone provides options for these speculative assets.
- ac29 9y ago
  Bitfinex will let you do that, among other more advanced trading tools. Disclaimer: I've never used them and don't know how credible they are. In my mind everyone in the Bitcoin space should be approached with caution.
  - bdcravens 9y ago
    Bitfinex has had issues processing US bank deposits and withdrawals for a few months. https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/203 https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/203
    - zdkl 9y ago
      Due tu the fact they lost/were stolen 70$M of BTC last august (which they apparently repaid to their customers over the following 8 months).
      - jameskegel 9y ago
        Are you talking about Recovery Tokens?
        aianus 9y ago
        The tokens were cashed out a few months ago. I was made entirely whole and subsequently withdrew everything successfully.
- patrickk 9y ago
  Poloniex let's you do something very close: short BTC/USDT. USDT is a digital currency called Tether[1], one unit of which is approximately equal to $1. Why not allow deposits of USD instead of the USDT workaround, you may ask? My theory is so that the exchange is not subject to the same level of oversight as it would if it accepted dollars - look at the BTC-e situation for example. What's amazing about Poloniex is that they're one of the most popular Bitcoin/altcoin exchanges, and almost nothing is known about those running it (it's US based). [1] https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tether/ https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tether/

gibybo 9y ago

Selling is reasonable, but so is just withdrawing and taking the BCC, especially if you want to defer taxes. Coinbase won't let you sell the BCC directly, but you'll be able to exchange the BCC for BTC on many other exchanges quickly and easily, then you can just sell the additional BTC on coinbase.

polemic 9y ago
Even so, there will be a certain amount of BCC that is locked up and unavailable on any market. For a time, there will be simply less BCC than BTC. BTC should remain suppressed while the question of the locked up BCC is resolved (either by tending to $0 or it becoming available to trade). Given those assumptions, you might break even (or gain if you're particularly quick/smart) if you sell the BCC after the fork, but it would seem like you near guarantee a profit if you sell BTC before and buy back after. That profit is off the back off value locked up in BCC by users who didn't pull it out.

untilHellbanned 9y ago

Caution: your advice didn't hold for Ethereum. When Ethereum forked, it didn't lose any value and Ethereum Classic value got created out of nothing. Compare around July 20, 2016: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#charts https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#charts https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-classic/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-classic/

runeks 9y ago
For Ethereum, was/is it possible to sell your coins on the fork you're not interested in? With BCC, you can create a transaction that transfers only BCC, thus allowing you to sell your newly-acquired BCC, while keeping your BTC. I'd be interested in knowing if this were the same with Ethereum (Classic), since I would assume it would put a large selling pressure on the minority fork (the greater the minority the greater the relative selling pressure).
- aerique 9y ago
  I had ETH on Kraken and after the fork I had ETH and ETC. However there's no saying what exchanges will do in this case. If you have your own BTC you will have BTC and BCC after the fork which you can sell.
- gst 9y ago
  > For Ethereum, was/is it possible to sell your coins on the fork you're not interested in? Yes. There was no replay protection (transactions were valid on both chains) but soon after the fork people created smart contracts that got initialized to a different state on each of the chains. So you could, e.g., send your coins to the smart contract which then would forward it to your address A on the first chain and to your address B on the second chain.
polemic 9y ago
Well if I read those charts correctly you could've sold ETH at about $20 and bought at $12. It then stabilised around $15. And ETC was able to be sold for what, $1? Seems like selling and buying ETH would've been a good move. Of course this stuff swings all over the place - you're as likely to get stung by some random swing in values as anything else I guess.

gfody 9y ago

the only way your money is at risk with Coinbase is if BTC itself does lose out - the so called 'wipeout' scenario described here: https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148 https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip14... 'wipeout' is a total longshot and we ought to be able to see it coming. either way it's not really a problem unless you have transactions on both versions to reconcile, and you can avoid that by simply not spending coin for a couple days. Coinbase can't just freeze everyones coin so having to reconcile with a fork after it achieves majority hashrate would be a real nightmare.

driverdan 9y ago
Your money is always at risk when you let a 3rd party hold it. You should not be storing cryptocurrencies with 3rd parties.
- gfody 9y ago
  well sure, but i'm referring to additional risk relative to 8/1. if you were comfortable storing your money with Coinbase before then 8/1 shouldn't deter you.

Fej 9y ago

Is there any way to short BTC/USD? I'm not going to, I'm just curious if anyone provides options for these speculative assets.

ac29 9y ago
Bitfinex will let you do that, among other more advanced trading tools. Disclaimer: I've never used them and don't know how credible they are. In my mind everyone in the Bitcoin space should be approached with caution.
- bdcravens 9y ago
  Bitfinex has had issues processing US bank deposits and withdrawals for a few months. https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/203 https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/203
  - zdkl 9y ago
    Due tu the fact they lost/were stolen 70$M of BTC last august (which they apparently repaid to their customers over the following 8 months).
    - jameskegel 9y ago
      Are you talking about Recovery Tokens?
      - aianus 9y ago
        The tokens were cashed out a few months ago. I was made entirely whole and subsequently withdrew everything successfully.
patrickk 9y ago
Poloniex let's you do something very close: short BTC/USDT. USDT is a digital currency called Tether[1], one unit of which is approximately equal to $1. Why not allow deposits of USD instead of the USDT workaround, you may ask? My theory is so that the exchange is not subject to the same level of oversight as it would if it accepted dollars - look at the BTC-e situation for example. What's amazing about Poloniex is that they're one of the most popular Bitcoin/altcoin exchanges, and almost nothing is known about those running it (it's US based). [1] https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tether/ https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tether/